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Probabilistic risk analysis for coal mine gas overrun based on FAHP and BN: a case study

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11 April 2024 Editor's Note: Readers are alerted that the concerns have been raised with this article. Editorial action will be taken as appropriate once this matter is resolved and all parties have been given an opportunity to respond in full.

Abstract

To analyze the risk of gas overrun in coal mines and improve the risk analysis, a novel risk analysis method was proposed based on FAHP and Bayesian network. The risk analysis framework consisted of causal reasoning, logical reasoning, and sensitivity analysis. The gas overrun risk analysis was conducted by taking the Laohutai Coal Mine in China as the research object. Specifically, based on prior knowledge and sample data, the probability of the gas overrun was 3.2%, belonging to a small probability event. However, the probability of gas concentration exceeding 1% was 12%, and there was still potential danger. Logical reasoning diagnosed and identified that wind speed and air leakage were the direct causes of gas overrun. Sensitivity analysis indicated that wind speed, human error, and ground stress were key factors of the gas overrun. The case study showed this fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP)-Bayesian network (BN)–based risk analysis method can provide real-time and dynamic decision support for gas overrun control and treatment in coal mines to ensure the safe and efficient mining.

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  • 11 April 2024

    Editor's Note: Readers are alerted that the concerns have been raised with this article. Editorial action will be taken as appropriate once this matter is resolved and all parties have been given an opportunity to respond in full.

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Funding

This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51974299, 52104191); Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2021JJ40204).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Resource, Environment and Safety Engineering, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Taoyuan Road, Xiangtan, 411201, Hunan Province, China

    Shan He, Yi Lu & Min Li

Authors
  1. Shan He
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  2. Yi Lu
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  3. Min Li
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Contributions

All the authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, and data collection and analysis were performed by Min Li and Yi Lu. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Shan He and all the authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Min Li.

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He, S., Lu, Y. & Li, M. Probabilistic risk analysis for coal mine gas overrun based on FAHP and BN: a case study. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 28458–28468 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18474-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18474-3

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