Abstract
A sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESs) is key to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). The ESs concept is based on socio-ecological complexity integrated with local decision demands. It helps prevent both regional ecological degradation and conflicts associated with large-scale land-use/coverage-change (LUCC). In this study, an integrated assessment method was developed to analyze spatiotemporal changes in the supply capacities of ESs and assess their implications on the SDGs. Therefore, land-system dynamics in Gansu Province, northwest China were elucidated based on LUCC maps (1992–2015) using several assessment tools. The LUCC analysis indicated rapid expansion of grassland and cultivated land in Gannan and Qingyang cities, respectively, which was attributed to conversion of forests and bare land. The supply capacity of ESs indicated a monotonous increasing trend (cultural service > supporting service > provisioning service > regulating service) which was associated with positive changes in multiple ESs. However, the decrease in specific services likely caused unexpected losses which potentially offset profits from the current management of the socio-ecological system. Frequency of linkages with the SDGs indicated the following order: regulating service > provisioning service > cultural service > supporting service. Further, flood prevention, carbon sequestration, and nutrient retention were the most frequent ESs. Additionally, the top 25% frequency of occurrence of ESs that occurred in SDGs comprised SDG15 (40), SDG11 (18), and SDG2 (17), indicating that key policy implications in Gansu province should emphasize sustainable management of forest ecosystems, cities, and cropping systems under limited water resources. Therefore, this study provides an integrated assessment of the effects of changing land-system dynamics on the potential provision of ESs and their subsequent impacts on the SDGs in typical semi-arid and arid regions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amatya LK, Cuccillato E, Haack B, Shadie P, Sattar N, Bajracharya B, Shrestha B, Caroli P, Panzeri D, Basani M, Schommer B, Flury B, Manfredi EC, Salerno F (2010) Improving communication for management of social-ecological systems in high mountain areas. Mount Res Dev 30(2):69–79. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-09-00084.1
Bagstad KJ, Semmens DJ, Winthrop R (2013) Comparing approaches to spatially explicit ecosystem service modeling: a case study from the San Pedro River, Arizona. Ecosyst Serv 5:40–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.07.007
Baral H, Keenan RJ, Stork NE, Kasel S (2014) Measuring and managing ecosystem goods and services in changing landscapes: a south-east Australian perspective. J Environ Planning Manage 57(7):961–983. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2013.824872
Barnaud C, Corbera E, Muradian R et al (2018) Ecosystem services, social interdependencies, and collective action: a conceptual framework. Ecol Soc 23:1–14. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09848-230115
Burkhard B, Petrosillo I, Costanza R (2010) Ecosystem services-bridging ecology, economy and social sciences. Ecol Complex 7:257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2010.07.001
Costanza R, Groot RD, Sutton P et al (2014) Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob Environ Change 26:152–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002
Costanza R, Fioramonti L, Kubiszewski I (2016) The UN sustainable development goals and the dynamics of well-being. Front Ecol Environ 14(2):59. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1231
Crossman ND, Burkhard B, Nedkov S et al (2013) A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services. Ecosyst Serv 4:4–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.02.001
Daily GC, Polasky S, Goldstein J et al (2009) Ecosystem services in decision making: time to deliver. Front Ecol Environ 7:21–28. https://doi.org/10.1890/080025
DasGupta R, Hashimoto S, Gundimeda H (2018) Biodiversity/ecosystem services scenario exercises from the Asia–Pacific: typology, archetypes and implications for sustainable development goals (SDGs). Sustain Sci 14:241–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0647-1
Daw TM, Coulthard S, Cheung WW et al (2015) Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being. Proc Natl Acad Sci. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414900112
Díaz S, Demissew S, Carabias J et al (2015) The IPBES conceptual framework—connecting nature and people. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 14:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.11.002
Eichler Inwood SE, López-Ridaura S, Kline KL et al (2018) Assessing sustainability in agricultural landscapes: a review of approaches 1, 2. Env Rev 26:299–315. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2017-0058
ESA (2017) Land cover CCI product user guide version 2.0. https://www.esa-landcover-cci.org/?q=webfm_send/84
Fisher B, Turner RK, Morling P (2009) Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making. Ecol Econ 68:643–653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.09.014
Geijzendorffer IR, Cohen-Shacham E, Cord AF et al (2017) Ecosystem services in global sustainability policies. Environ Sci Policy 74:40–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.017
Getis A, Ord JK (1992) The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geogr Anal 24(3):189–206. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-01976-0_10
Gibbs HK, Ruesch AS, Achard F et al (1990s) Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. PNAS 107:16732–16737. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0910275107
Gong J, Liu D, Zhang J et al (2019) Tradeoffs/synergies of multiple ecosystem services based on land-use simulation in a mountain-basin area, western China. Ecol Ind 99:283–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.12.027
Govind NR, Ramesh H (2019) The impact of spatiotemporal patterns of land use land cover and land surface temperature on an urban cool island: a case study of Bengaluru. Environ Monit Assess 191(5):283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7440-1
Grekousis G, Mountrakis G, Kavouras M (2015) An overview of 21 global and 43 regional land-cover mapping products. Int J Remote Sens 36:1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2015.1093195
Griggs D, Stafford-Smith M, Gaffney O et al (2013) Policy: Sustainable development goals for people and planet. Nature 495(7441):305–307. https://doi.org/10.1038/495305a
Hák T, Janoušková S, Moldan B (2016) Sustainable development goals: a need for relevant indicators. Ecol Indic 60:565–573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.003
Hartley AJ, MacBean N, Georgievski G et al (2017) Uncertainty in plant functional type distributions and its impact on land surface models. Remote Sens Environ 203:71–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.037
Hashimoto S, DasGupta R, Kabaya K et al (2019) Scenario analysis of land-use and ecosystem services of social-ecological landscapes: implications of alternative development pathways under declining population in the Noto Peninsula Japan. Sustain Sci 14(1):53–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0626-6
He S, Wang D, Li Y, Zhao P (2018) Land use changes and their driving forces in a debris flow active area of Gansu Province, China. Sustainability 10(8):2759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082759
Hou Y, Zhou S, Burkhard B, Muller F (2014) Socioeconomic influences on biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being: a quantitative application of the DPSIR model in Jiangsu, China. Sci Total Environ 490:1012–1028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.05.071
Inkoom JN, Frank S, Greve K et al (2018) A framework to assess landscape structural capacity to provide regulating ecosystem services in West Africa. J Environ Manage 209:393–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.12.027
Jacobs S, Burkhard B, Daele TV et al (2015) ‘The Matrix Reloaded’: a review of expert knowledge use for mapping ecosystem services. Ecol Model 295:21–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.08.024
Jiang P, Cheng L, Li M et al (2015) Impacts of LUCC on soil properties in the riparian zones of desert oasis with remote sensing data: a case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China. Sci Total Environ 506:259–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.11.004
Júnior JLS, Tomasella J, Rodriguez DA (2015) Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin. Clim Change 129(1–2):117–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x
Kandziora M, Burkhard B, Müller F (2013) Interactions of ecosystem properties, ecosystem integrity and ecosystem service indicators—a theoretical matrix exercise. Ecol Ind 28:54–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.09.006
Kindu M, Schneider T, Teketay D et al (2016) Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Munessa–Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Sci Total Environ 547:137–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.127
Kuemmerle T, Levers C, Erb K et al (2016) Hotspots of land-use change in Europe. Environ Res Lett 11(6):064020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064020
Lambin EF, Meyfroidt P (2011) Global land-use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. PNAS 108:3465–3472. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Lauer A, Eyring V, Righi M et al (2017) Benchmarking CMIP5 models with a subset of ESA CCI Phase 2 data using the ESMValTool. Remote Sens Environ 203:9–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.007
Law M, Collins A (2015) Getting to know ArcGIS. ESRI Press, Redlands
Lawler JJ, Lewis DJ, Nelson E et al (2014) Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. PNAS 111(20):7492–7497. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1405557111
Lehnert LW, Wesche K, Trachte K, Reudenbach C, Bendix J (2016) Climate variability rather than overstocking causes recent large scale cover changes of Tibetan pastures. Sci Rep 6:24367. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24367
Li Z, Wu W, Liu X et al (2017) Land-use/cover change and regional climate change in an arid grassland ecosystem of Inner Mongolia, China. Ecol Model 353:86–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.019
Li W, MacBean N, Ciais P et al (2018a) Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015). Earth Syst Sci Data 10(1):219–234. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018
Li S, Zhang Y, Wang Z et al (2018b) Mapping human influence intensity in the Tibetan Plateau for conservation of ecological service functions. Ecosyst Serv 30:276–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.10.003
Liang Y, Liu L (2017) An integrated ecosystem service assessment in an artificial desert oasis of northwestern China. J Land Use Sci 12:14. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2017.1308024
Liang Y, Zhongmin XU, Zhong F (2013) An spatial ecosystem services approach based on LUCC: a case study of Ganzhou district of Zhangye City. Acta Ecol Sin 33:4758–4766
Liang Y, Liu L, Huang J (2017) Integrating the SD-CLUE-S and InVEST models into assessment of oasis carbon storage in northwestern China. PLoS ONE 12:e0172494. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172494
Liu M, Tian H (2010) China's land cover and land use change from 1700 to 2005: estimations from high-resolution satellite data and historical archives. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 24(3):GB3003. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003687
Liu J, Li S, Ouyang Z et al (2008) Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China's policies for ecosystem services. PNAS 105:9477–9482. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0706436105
Liu C, Dong X, Liu Y (2015) Changes of NPP and their relationship to climate factors based on the transformation of different scales in Gansu, China. CATENA 125:190–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.10.027
Liu J, Hull V, Godfray HCJ et al (2018) Nexus approaches to global sustainable development. Nat Sustain 1(9):466. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0135-8
Lorencová E, Frélichová J, Nelson E et al (2013) Past and future impacts of land use and climate change on agricultural ecosystem services in the Czech Republic. Land Use Policy 33:183–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.12.012
Mace GM, Norris K, Fitter AH (2012) Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship. Trends Ecol Evol 27:19–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.08.006
MEA (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island, Washington
Nahuelhual L, Carmona A, Aguayo M et al (2014) Land use change and ecosystem services provision: a case study of recreation and ecotourism opportunities in southern Chile. Landsc Ecol 29(2):329–344. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-013-9958-x
Naidoo R, Balmford A, Costanza R et al (2008) Global mapping of ecosystem services and conservation priorities. PNAS 105(28):9495–9500. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0707823105
Nelson E, Mendoza G, Regetz J et al (2009) Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commodity production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales. Front Ecol Environ 7:4–11. https://doi.org/10.1890/080023
Nolan S, Unkovich M, Yuying S et al (2008) Farming systems of the Loess Plateau, Gansu Province, China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 124(1–2):13–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2007.08.009
Ord JK, Getis A (1995) Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application. Geogr Anal 27(4):286–306
Ornetsmüller C, Verburg PH, Heinimann A (2016) Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land. Appl Geogr 75:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.07.010
Ouyang Z, Zheng H, Xiao Y et al (2016) Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital. Science 352:1455–1459. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf2295
Pei F, Li X, Liu X, Lao C, Xia G (2015) Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China. J Environ Manage 150:92–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.11.002
Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA et al (2016) Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Change Biol 22(12):3967–3983. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337
Queiroz C, Meacham M, Richter K et al (2015) Mapping bundles of ecosystem services reveals distinct types of multifunctionality within a Swedish landscape. Ambio 44(1):89–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0601-0
Raudsepp-Hearne C, Peterson GD, Tengö M et al (2010) Untangling the environmentalist's paradox: why is human well-being increasing as ecosystem services degrade? Bioscience 60(8):576–589. https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.4
United Nations (2015) Report of the inter-agency and expert group on sustainable development goal indicators, decision document E/CN.3/2016/2
Saito O, Kamiyama C, Hashimoto S et al (2019) Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustain Sci 14(1):5–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9
Schild JEM, Vermaat JE, Groot RSD et al (2018) A global meta-analysis on the monetary valuation of dryland ecosystem services: the role of socio-economic, environmental and methodological indicators. Ecosyst Serv 32:78–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.004
GLP (2005) Global land project. Science plan and implementation strategy. IGBP report no. 53/IHDP Report no. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm
Song W, Deng X (2017) Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China. Sci Total Environ 576:705–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.078
Sun F, Lyu Y, Fu B et al (2016) Hydrological services by mountain ecosystems in Qilian Mountain of China: a review. Chin Geogr Sci 26:174–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-015-0791-9
Turner MG, Donato DC, Romme WH (2013) Consequences of spatial heterogeneity for ecosystem services in changing forest landscapes: priorities for future research. Landsc Ecol 28:1081–1097. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-012-9741-4
Vihervaara P, Kumpula T, Tanskanen A et al (2010) Ecosystem services–a tool for sustainable management of human–environment systems. Case study Finnish Forest Lapland. Ecol Complex 7:410–420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2009.12.002
Vihervaara P, Franzese PP, Buonocore E (2019) Information, energy, and eco-exergy as indicators of ecosystem complexity. Ecol Model 395:23–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.01.010
Wang S, Meng X, Guan C et al (2017) Effects of vegetation on debris flow mitigation: a case study from Gansu province, China. Geomorphology 282:64–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.12.024
Wen X, Wu X, Meng G (2017) Spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation in Gansu Province (Northwest China) during 1951–2015. Atmos Res 197:132–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.001
Wood SLR, Jones SK, Johnson JA et al (2018) Distilling the role of ecosystem services in the sustainable development goals. Ecosyst Serv 29:70–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.10.010
Yi H, Güneralp B, Kreuter UP et al (2018) Spatial and temporal changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services in the San Antonio River Basin, Texas, from 1984 to 2010. Sci Total Environ 619:1259–1271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.302
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601184), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund [S-15 Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)] of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 17KT0076, and the ‘Research and Social Implementation of Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction as Climate Change Adaptation in Shrinking Societies’ of the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Handled by Ram Avtar, Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, Japan.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, L., Liang, Y. & Hashimoto, S. Integrated assessment of land-use/coverage changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Gansu Province, northwest China: implications for sustainable development goals. Sustain Sci 15, 297–314 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00758-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00758-w