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Analyzing future water availability and hydrological extremes in the Krishna basin under changing climatic conditions

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Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on water availability and hydrological extremes in the Krishna River basin, the second largest eastward draining river of Peninsular India. The hydrological response of the basin for the past observed climatic data (1985–2005) and future climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, for 2006–2099) is simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The soil, vegetation, topographic, and meteorological inputs for the model are derived from remote sensing and field-observed data. The model calibration is performed using observed discharge data at 4 gauging stations for the time period of 21 years (1985–2005); the coefficients of determination (R2) are in the range of 0.81–0.95. The model validation is carried out at the Vijayawada station (R2 = 0.82), near the basin outlet. The meteorological forcing consisting of future climatic inputs for the entire century (2006–2099) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios extracted from IITMRegCM4-4 predictions are used to simulate the future hydrological regime of the basin. The hydrological response analysis shows increase in annual discharge by 13.8 and 27.8 cumec under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The hydrological extreme events are also found to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios as compared with the past records of 1985–2005. The peak discharge is observed to increase in the range of 57.7–76.8 and 68.5–77.5% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The study highlights that the annual water potential and hydrological extremes in the Krishna basin will increase under the future climatic scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to all the organizations/institutes for providing the necessary data for this study. We thank the Director, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS) Dehradun, for his valuable support and encouragement. We thank the reviewers for their critical comments which helped in improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Resources Department, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, ISRO, Dehradun, India

    Bhaskar Ramchandra Nikam, Vaibhav Garg, Keerthiga Jeyaprakash, Praveen Kumar Thakur & Shiv Prasad Aggarwal

  2. Geo-informatics Department, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, ISRO, Dehradun, India

    Prasun Kumar Gupta

  3. Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, ISRO, Dehradun, India

    Sushil Kumar Srivastav

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  1. Bhaskar Ramchandra Nikam
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  2. Vaibhav Garg
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  3. Keerthiga Jeyaprakash
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  6. Praveen Kumar Thakur
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Correspondence to Bhaskar Ramchandra Nikam.

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Nikam, B.R., Garg, V., Jeyaprakash, K. et al. Analyzing future water availability and hydrological extremes in the Krishna basin under changing climatic conditions. Arab J Geosci 11, 581 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3936-1

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