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A simple procedure for design flood estimation incorporating duration and return period of design rainfall

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Abstract

Wide field application of curve number (CN) methodology in design flood estimation and forecasting studies is a well-accepted reality. The parameter CN is often regarded as a constant, but it is in fact a random variable, for it relies on a number of factors governing the process of rainfall-runoff. This paper suggests an alternative procedure to estimate design runoff (Q) using design storm (P) and design curve number (CN) values. To this end, design CN values for different durations and return periods have been derived from 25 years of daily annual maximum P-Q data of 10 Indian catchments. When compared, the computed design Q from design CN values was either very close to or slightly greater than the observed Q. The performance is also evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2), percentage of bias (PBIAS), and normalized Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NNSE). The magnitude of design CN is found to decrease for longer durations and smaller return periods, and vice versa, and such a behavior invoked the development of an empirical relation for estimation of design CN from given return period and duration for gauged as well as ungauged watersheds. The statistical analysis revealed the general extreme value (GEV) to fit best the P-CN series, whereas multiple probability distributions, viz., GEV, Gumbel max, log Pearson 3, and Gen Pareto fitted best the Q series. The 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year runoff estimated from the P-CN series exceeded only marginally those derived from the conventional Q series approach.

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Data availability

Some or all data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request (rainfall and discharge data of 6 catchments of Godavari basin and 4 catchments of Mahanadi basin of India).

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee for providing the requisite space and resources during the study. We extend our sincere gratitude to IMD and India WRIS for providing open-access data. We are also grateful to the editor and anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions were very helpful in significantly improving the initial version of the manuscript.

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  1. Dept. of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 247667, India

    Ishan Sharma, Surendra Kumar Mishra & Ashish Pandey

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  1. Ishan Sharma
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  2. Surendra Kumar Mishra
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  3. Ashish Pandey
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Correspondence to Ishan Sharma.

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Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel

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Sharma, I., Mishra, S.K. & Pandey, A. A simple procedure for design flood estimation incorporating duration and return period of design rainfall. Arab J Geosci 14, 1286 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07645-8

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