Abstract
Political instability, especially when it is of a violent nature, diminishes the productive, as well as the transactional capacities of the economy. This has adverse consequences for investment and thus future economic growth, a situation which in turn creates a fragile socio-political environment. The relationship between political instability and economic growth flows in either direction; political instability resulting in low economic growth (PI → LEG) and low economic growth resulting in political instability (LEG → PI). From the PI → LEG point of view, political instability influences the latter through a number of channels including the tax system, government spending and fiscal deficit, and inflation, all of which affect the level of investment, and thus influence future economic growth rates. From the LEG → PI point of view, low economic growth rates create conditions favourable for political instability. Reviewing economic and political stability data from 52 African countries for the period 1980 to 2013, the analysis demonstrates through some scenarios that higher and relatively more stable long-term (1980–2013) average growth rates correlate with lower levels of political instability in most of the pairwise comparisons of the countries. This is shown to be especially true for less resource-dependent countries. Empirical analyses of the data comprising all the countries under investigation find there to be a strong bi-directional direct relationship between political stability and the level of growth, and it is even more so the case for conflict-affected countries, unlike the non-conflict-affected countries. Further analyses using three-year averages of the data from 1981 to 2013 find that greater fluctuations in the growth rate adversely affect the level of political stability in especially conflict-affected countries, thus indicating a correlation between economic instability and political instability.
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Notes
The duration of conflict here is measured by Type 3 (internal armed conflict occurring between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition group(s) without intervention from other states) and Type 4 (internationalized internal armed conflict occurring between the government of a state and one or more internal opposition group(s) with intervention from other states (secondary parties) on one or both sides) conflicts in the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, Version 4-2015 of Uppsala University, Sweden (Themnér, 2015). Since the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, Version 4-2015 is presented in days, an internal conflict month (\(ICM\)) is defined here as a Type 3 and/or Type 4 conflict in the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, Version 4-2015 that occurs within a period ranging from 1 day to one calendar month. External conflict is not considered here because its impact on the domestic economy may not be certain.
Figure 1b, additionally, shows a greater density of negative-valued Average \(PSE\) bars in resource-dependent countries denoting higher levels of political instability on the average in these countries as compared to the less resource-dependent countries. There are similarly longer durations of conflict in the resource-dependent countries on the average than is the case in the less resource-dependent countries. Analyses of these relationships are outside the scope of this paper.
There are no cyclically adjusted data in our database. The original data is thus used.
Preceding the Granger causality test, the requirement that the series have to be covariance stationary is ascertained through the panel unit root test, the results of which are shown in Appendix A1. For most of the series, the null hypothesis H0 of non-stationarity is rejected at the 5% level of significance, both at level and at first difference. However, H0 is not rejected for \(SchEnr\) and \(Credit\) at level for all of the tests, while it is rejected at first difference, except for the Breitung t-statistic for \(SchEnr\). H0 is not rejected for \(PSE\), \(NRT\), \(FD\), \(C\), \(FDI\), at level and at first difference for \(C\) using Breitung t-statistic.
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Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to Professor Masayuki Tamaoka for providing invaluable guidance during the study and to Professor Yoshikatsu Tatamitani and Professor Shigeharu Okajima for their helpful comments. I am also grateful to Professor Yuko Arayama and Professor Tsuyoshi Shinozaki, as well as, the other participants at the 16th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association in Okinawa, who made very helpful suggestions aimed at improving the quality of this paper. The very helpful comments of two anonymous referees is acknowledged and appreciated.
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This paper forms part of the author’s doctoral dissertation on the topic “Economic analysis of political instability in Africa”.
Appendix A1 Panel unit root test results
Appendix A1 Panel unit root test results
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: POLITICAL_STABILITY_AND_
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:37
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 1
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 13.1027 | 0.0000 | 53 | 570 |
Breitung t-stat | − 0.13213 | 0.4474 | 53 | 517 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 3.79810 | 0.0001 | 53 | 570 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 170.276 | 0.0001 | 53 | 570 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 200.452 | 0.0000 | 53 | 583 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(POLITICAL_STABILITY_AND_)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:37
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 1
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 28.3374 | 0.0000 | 53 | 507 |
Breitung t-stat | − 8.95176 | 0.0000 | 53 | 454 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 10.8386 | 0.0000 | 53 | 507 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 352.014 | 0.0000 | 53 | 507 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 518.798 | 0.0000 | 53 | 530 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: UPPSALA_INTCONFMONTHS
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:39
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 8.25635 | 0.0000 | 37 | 1258 |
Breitung t-stat | − 1.94383 | 0.0260 | 37 | 1221 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 8.15020 | 0.0000 | 37 | 1258 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 259.853 | 0.0000 | 37 | 1258 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 271.770 | 0.0000 | 37 | 1258 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(UPPSALA_INTCONFMONTHS)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:39
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 6
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 24.4864 | 0.0000 | 27 | 918 |
Breitung t-stat | − 9.76984 | 0.0000 | 27 | 891 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 26.6501 | 0.0000 | 27 | 918 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 805.937 | 0.0000 | 27 | 918 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 2051.28 | 0.0000 | 27 | 918 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: FREQUENCY_OF_GOVERNMENT_
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:41
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 3
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 30.5026 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1768 |
Breitung t-stat | − 17.2901 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1716 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 30.8561 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1768 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 886.440 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1768 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 1914.95 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1768 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(FREQUENCY_OF_GOVERNMENT_)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:41
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 6
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Balanced observations for each test
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 22.6416 | 0.0000 | 46 | 1564 |
Breitung t-stat | − 10.1413 | 0.0000 | 46 | 1518 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 42.9844 | 0.0000 | 46 | 1564 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1546.64 | 0.0000 | 46 | 1564 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 10898.4 | 0.0000 | 46 | 1564 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: TOTNATRESRENT_TOTTAX
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:42
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 35.8563 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1456 |
Breitung t-stat | − 6.2E-11 | 0.5000 | 53 | 1403 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 11.8921 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1454 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 582.842 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1454 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 894.210 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1482 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(TOTNATRESRENT_TOTTAX)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:42
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 4
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 57.1006 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1394 |
Breitung t-stat | − 10.2435 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1342 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 41.5836 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1394 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1391.71 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1394 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 3377.63 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1419 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: SEIGNIORAGE__PH_Y_
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:43
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 4
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 229.482 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1546 |
Breitung t-stat | − 11.6970 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1494 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 54.4814 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1546 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 755.431 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1546 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 1071.45 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1561 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(SEIGNIORAGE__PH_Y_)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:43
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 4
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 170.373 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1519 |
Breitung t-stat | − 13.0357 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1467 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 68.6987 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1519 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1611.71 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1519 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 8712.81 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1542 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: GENERAL_GOVERNMENT_NET_L
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:44
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | 27.9124 | 1.0000 | 53 | 1001 |
Breitung t-stat | − 8.6E-12 | 0.5000 | 53 | 948 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 7.15731 | 0.0000 | 52 | 999 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 249.698 | 0.0000 | 52 | 999 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 210.159 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1035 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(GENERAL_GOVERNMENT_NET_L)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:45
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 6
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 24.7869 | 0.0000 | 52 | 945 |
Breitung t-stat | − 11.4868 | 0.0000 | 52 | 893 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 20.0383 | 0.0000 | 52 | 945 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 658.453 | 0.0000 | 52 | 945 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 1883.69 | 0.0000 | 52 | 983 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: GDP_GROWTH__ANNUAL_____N
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:46
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 1
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 24.5565 | 0.0000 | 54 | 1671 |
Breitung t-stat | − 15.2813 | 0.0000 | 54 | 1617 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 22.4071 | 0.0000 | 54 | 1671 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 856.097 | 0.0000 | 54 | 1671 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 1257.44 | 0.0000 | 54 | 1672 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(GDP_GROWTH__ANNUAL_____N)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:46
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 29.1399 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1642 |
Breitung t-stat | − 18.9121 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1589 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 41.3238 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1642 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1594.19 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1642 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 9143.74 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1654 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: FINAL_CONSUMPTION_EXPEND
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:47
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 5
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 156.150 | 0.0000 | 51 | 1503 |
Breitung t-stat | − 4.1E-11 | 0.5000 | 51 | 1452 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 5.36848 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1501 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 228.128 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1501 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 222.577 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1506 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(FINAL_CONSUMPTION_EXPEND)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:48
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 1953.97 | 0.0000 | 51 | 1476 |
Breitung t-stat | − 5.3E-10 | 0.5000 | 51 | 1425 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 27.7327 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1474 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1091.20 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1474 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 3325.23 | 0.0000 | 50 | 1487 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: DOMESTIC_CREDIT_TO_PRIVA
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:49
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | 0.45223 | 0.6744 | 52 | 1554 |
Breitung t-stat | 4.69898 | 1.0000 | 52 | 1502 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | 1.65156 | 0.9507 | 52 | 1554 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 117.533 | 0.1720 | 52 | 1554 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 73.7166 | 0.9893 | 52 | 1578 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(DOMESTIC_CREDIT_TO_PRIVA)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:50
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 5
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 23.6658 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1536 |
Breitung t-stat | − 14.8404 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1484 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 27.1366 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1536 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 945.741 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1536 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 1658.69 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1555 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: SCHOOL_ENROLLMENT__SECON
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:51
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 3
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | 6.79587 | 1.0000 | 49 | 922 |
Breitung t-stat | 6.35568 | 1.0000 | 49 | 873 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | 7.05368 | 1.0000 | 49 | 922 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 51.2208 | 1.0000 | 49 | 922 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 51.8107 | 1.0000 | 49 | 968 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(SCHOOL_ENROLLMENT__SECON)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:52
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 4
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 16.2561 | 0.0000 | 47 | 827 |
Breitung t-stat | 0.83171 | 0.7972 | 47 | 780 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 6.65647 | 0.0000 | 47 | 827 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 282.437 | 0.0000 | 47 | 827 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 310.728 | 0.0000 | 47 | 864 |
**Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: FOREIGN_DIRECT_INVESTMEN
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:53
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 6
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 9.55021 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1606 |
Breitung t-stat | − 0.33925 | 0.3672 | 53 | 1553 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 11.1968 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1606 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 378.924 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1606 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 415.636 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1621 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(FOREIGN_DIRECT_INVESTMEN)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:53
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 7
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 30.5802 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1577 |
Breitung t-stat | − 2.37221 | 0.0088 | 53 | 1524 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 38.0143 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1577 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1396.77 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1577 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 5819.89 | 0.0000 | 53 | 1600 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: MERCHANDISE_TRADE____OF_
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:54
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 2
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 5.00227 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1679 |
Breitung t-stat | − 3.74812 | 0.0001 | 52 | 1627 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 3.31802 | 0.0005 | 52 | 1679 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 149.552 | 0.0023 | 52 | 1679 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 149.699 | 0.0022 | 52 | 1682 |
Panel unit root test: Summary
Series: D(MERCHANDISE_TRADE____OF_)
Date: 12/08/17 Time: 02:54
Sample: 1980 2013
Exogenous variables: Individual effects, individual linear trends
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 5
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel
Method | Statistic | Prob.** | Cross-sections | Obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) | ||||
Levin, Lin & Chu t* | − 33.9280 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1652 |
Breitung t-stat | − 24.0903 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1600 |
Null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) | ||||
Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat | − 35.6743 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1652 |
ADF—Fisher Chi-square | 1118.97 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1652 |
PP—Fisher Chi-square | 2920.91 | 0.0000 | 52 | 1668 |
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Dalyop, G.T. Political instability and economic growth in Africa. IJEPS 13, 217–257 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-018-0008-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42495-018-0008-1