Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

  • Chapter
Book cover Increasing Climate Variability and Change

Abstract

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Alexandrov, V. A.: 1997, ‘Vulnerability of agronomic systems in Bulgaria’, Climatic Change 36, 135–149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston, M., Tol, R. S. J., Delcolle, R., Hörmann, G., Iglesias, A., Innes, J., McMichael, A. J., Martens, A. J. M., Nemesova, I., Nicholls, R. J. and Toth, F. L.: 1998, ‘Europe’, in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C. and Moss, R. H. (eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change-An Assessment of Vulnerability, Special Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 289–324.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berninger, R.: 1997, ‘Effects of drought and phenology on GPP in Pinus Sylvestris: A simulation study along a geographical gradient’, Funct. Ecol. 11(1), 3342.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindi, M., Ferrini, F. and Miglietta, F.: 1992, ‘Climatic change and the shift in the cultivated area of olive trees’, J. Agric. Mediterranea 22, 41–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Maselli, F. and Miglietta, F.: 2000, ‘Modelling climate change impacts on grapevine in Tuscany’, in Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Lonsdale, K. G. (eds.), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture in Europe: An Integrated Assessment, Research Report 21, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, pp. 191–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S. and Miglietta, F.: 1996, ‘Modelling the impact of future climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine’, Climate Res. 7, 213–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M. and Nanni, T.: 2000, ‘Variations of temperature and precipitation in Italy from 1866 to 1995’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 65, 165–174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bugmann, H.: 1997, ‘Sensitivity of forests in the European Alps to future climatic change’, Climate Res. 8(1), 3544.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cannell, M. G. J.: 1985, ‘Analysis of risks of frost damage to forest trees in Britain’, in Tigerstedt, P. M. A., Puttonen, P. and Koski, V. (eds.), Crop Physiology of Forest Trees, Helsinki University Press, Helsinki, pp. 153–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T. R.: 1998, ‘Changes in the thermal growing season in Nordic countries during the past century and prospects for the future’, Agric. Food Sci. Finland 7, 161–179.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carter, T. R., Saarikko, R. A. and Niemi, K. J.: 1996, ‘Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland’, Agric. Food Sci. Finland 3, 329–349.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai, A., Fung, I. Y. and del Genio, A. D.: 1997, ‘Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900-1988’, J. Climate 10, 2943–2962.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davies, A., Jenkins, T., Pike, A., Carson, I., Pollock, C. J. and Parry, M. L.: 1997, ‘Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of potatoes’, Annals Appl. Biol. 130, 167–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ECSN: 1995, ‘Climate of Europe: Recent variation, present state and future prospects’, KNMI, de Bilt, Netherlands, p. 72.

    Google Scholar 

  • EEA: 1998, ‘Europe’s environment: The second assessment European Environment Agency’, Elsevier, Copenhagen, Denmark, p. 293.

    Google Scholar 

  • Evans, L. G., Eckersten, H., Semenov, M. A. and Porter, J. R.: 1995, ‘Modeling the effects of climate change and climatic variability on crops at site scale: effects on Willow’, in Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. and Downing, T. E. (eds.), Climate change and agriculture in Europe: Assessment of impacts and adaptations. Research Report No. 9, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, UK, pp. 220–223.

    Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT: 2001, ‘On-line and multilingual database’,FAO, Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farrar, J. F.: 1996, ‘Sinks, integral parts of a whole plant’, J. Exp. Bot. 47, 1273–1280.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Frei, C. and Schär, C.: 1998, ‘A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations’, Int. J. Climatol. 18, 873–900.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuquay, J. W.: 1989, ‘Heat stress as it affects animal production’, J. Anim. Sci. 52, 164–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gavilán, R., Fernandez-González, E.: 1997, ‘Climatic discrimination of Mediterranean broad-leaved sclerophyllous and deciduous forests in central Spain’, J. Vegetation Sci. 8, 377–386.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gruza, G., Rankova, E., Razuvaev, V. and Bulygina, O.: 1999, ‘Indicators of climate change for the Russian Federation’, Climatic Change 42(1), 219–242.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, P. A. and Butterfield, R. E. and Gawith, M. J.: 1995b, ‘Effects on winter wheat, sunflower, onion and grassland in Europe’, in P. A. Harrison, R. Butterfield and T. E. Downing (eds.), Climate Change and Agriculture in Europe: Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations. Research Report No. 9, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, UK, pp. 330–388.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, P. A. and Butterfield, R. E.: 2000, ‘Modelling climate change impacts on wheat, potato and grapevine in Europe’, in Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Lonsdale, K. G. (eds.), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture in Europe: An Integrated Assessment, Research Report 21, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, pp. 367–390.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. and Downing, T. (eds.): 1995a, ‘Climate change and agriculture in Europe: Assessment of impacts and adaptations’, Research Report No. 9, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, 414 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Downing, T. E.: 2000, ‘The CLIVARA project: Study aims and methods’, in Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Lonsdale, K. G. (eds.), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture in Europe: An Integrated Assessment, Research Report 21, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, pp. 3–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harrison, P. A., Porter, J. R. and Downing, T. E.: 2000, ‘Scaling-up the AFRC-WHEAT2 model to assess phenological development for wheat in Europe’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 101, 167–186.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M. and Carter, T. R.: 2000, ‘The changing climate of Europe’, in Parry, M. L. (ed.), Assessment of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in Europe, The ACACIA Report, pp. 47–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M., Osborn, T. J. and Johns, T. C.: 1998, ‘Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with Had CM 2 simulations’, Geophys. Res. Letts. 25, 3379–3382.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, P. D. and Briffa, K. R.: 1995, ‘Growing season temperatures over the former Soviet Union’, Int. J. Climatol. 15, 943–960.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellomäki, S. and Kolström, M.: 1993, ‘Computations on the yield of timber by Scots pine when subjected to varying levels of thinning under a changing climate in southern Finland’, Forest Ecol. Manage. 59, 237–255.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellomaki, S.: 2000, ‘Forestry’, in Parry, M. L. (ed.), ‘Assessment of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in Europe’, The ACACIA Report, pp. 137–154.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kellomäki, S. and Väisänen, H.: 1996, ‘Model computations on the effect of rising temperature on soil moisture and water availability in forest ecosystems dominated by Scots pine in the boreal zone in Finland’, Climatic Change 32, 423–445.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kenny, G. J., Harrison, P. A., Olesen, J. E. and Parry, M. L.: 1993, ‘The effects of climate change on land suitability of grain maize, winter wheat and cauliflower in Europe’, Eur. J. Agron. 2, 325–338.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kirschbaum, M. U. F., Fischlin, A., Cannell, M. G. R., Cruz, R. V. O., Cramer, W., Alvarez, A., Austin, M. P., Bugmann, H. K. M., Booth, T. H., Chipompha, N.W. S., Cisela,W. M., Eamus, D., Goldammer, J. G., Henderson-Sellers, A., Huntley, B., Innes, J. L., Kaufmann, M. R., Kräuchi, N., Kile, G. A., Kokorin, A. O., Körner, C., Landsberg, J., Linder, S., Leemans, R., Luxmoore, R. J., Markham, A., McMurtrie, R. E., Neilson, R. P., Norby, R. J., Odera, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Pitelka, L. F, Rastetter, E. B., Solomon, A. M., Stewart, R., van Minnen, J., Weber, M. and Xu, D.: 1996, ‘Climate change impacts on forests’, in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C. and Moss, R. H. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 95–129.

    Google Scholar 

  • Komor, E., Orlich, G., Weig, A. and Kockenberger, W.: 1996, ‘Phloem loading — not metaphysical, only complex: Towards a unified model of phloem loading’, J. Exp. Bot. 47, 1155–1164.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kostrowicki, J.: 1991, ‘Trends in the transformation of European agriculture’, in Brouwer, F. M., Thomas, A. J. and Chadwick, M. J. (eds.), Land use changes in Europe. The GeoJournal Library, Vol. 18, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 21–47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kräuchi, N.: 1995, ‘Application of the model FORSUM to the Solling spruce site’, Ecol. Model. 83, 219–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Long, S. P. and Woodward, F. I.: 1988, ‘Plants and temperature’, in Symposia of the Society of Experimental Biology XLII, Cambridge, Company of Biologist.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maugeri, M. and Nanni, T.: 1998, ‘Surface air temperature variations in Italy: Recent trends and an update to 1998’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 61, 191–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mela, T. J. N.: 1996, ‘Northern Agriculture: Constraints and responses to global climate change’, Agric. Food Sci. Finland 3, 229–234.

    Google Scholar 

  • Menzel, A. and Fabian, P.: 1999, ‘Growing season extended in Europe’, Nature 397, 659.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nonhebel, S.: 1996, ‘Effects of temperature rise an increase CO2 concentration on simulated wheat yields in Europe’, Climatic Change 34, 73–90.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, N., Gruza, G. V., Jouzel, J., Karl, T. R., Ogallo, L. A. and Parker, D. E.: 1996, ‘Observed climate variability and change, in Houghton, J. T., Meiro Filho, L. G., Callendar, B. A., Kattenburg, A. and Maskell, K. (eds.), Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change, Vol. 572, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 133–192.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olesen, J. E., Jensen, T. and Petersen, J.: 2000, ‘Sensitivity of field-scale winter wheat production in Denmark to climate variability and climate change’, Climate Res. 15, 221–238.

    Google Scholar 

  • Olesen, J. E. and Grevsen, K.: 1993, ‘Simulated effects of climate change on summer cauliflower production in Europe’, Eur. J. Agron. 2, 313–323.

    Google Scholar 

  • Onate, J. J. and Pou, A.: 1996, ‘Temperature variations in Spain since 1901: A preliminary analysis, Int. J. Climatol. 16, 805–815.

    Google Scholar 

  • Osborn, T. J., Hulme, M., Jones, P. D. and Basnett, T.: 2000, ‘Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation’, Int. J. Climatol. 14, 180–183.

    Google Scholar 

  • Palutikof, S.: 2000, ‘Effects of weather now’, in Parry, M. L. (ed.), Assessment of the Potential Effects of Climate Change in Europe, The ACACIA Report, pp. 137–154.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L. (ed.): 2000, ‘Assessment of potential effects and adaptations for climate change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA project’, Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, pp. 1–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L., Carter, T.R. and Knoijin, N. T. (eds.): 1988, ‘The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture’, Kluwer, Dordrecht, 876 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearson, S., Wheeler, T. R., Hadley, P. and Wheldon, A. E.: 1997, ‘A validated model to predict the effects of environment on the growth of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.): Implications for climate change’, J. Hortic. Sci. 72, 503–517.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peiris, D. R., Crawford, J. W., Grashoff, C., Jefferies, R. A., Porter, J. R. and Marshall, B.: 1996, ‘A simulation study of crop growth and development under climate change’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 79, 271–287.

    Google Scholar 

  • Penning de Vries, F. W. T, van Keulen, H. and Rabbinge, R.: 1995, ‘Natural resources and limits of food production in 2040’, in Bouma J., Kuyvenhoven A., Bouman B., Luyten J. and Zandstra, H. (eds.), Eco-regional Approaches for Sustainable Land Use and Food Production, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J.: 1996, ‘Agriculture in a changing climate: Impacts and adaptation’, in Watson R. T., Zinyowera M. C., Moss R. H. and Dokken D. J. (eds.), Climate Change 1995-Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, pp. 429–467.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sirotenko, O. D., Abashina, H. V. and Pavlova, V. N.: 1997, ‘Sensitivity of the Russian agriculture to changes in climate, CO2 and tropospheric ozone concentrations and soil fertility’, Climatic Change 36, 217–232.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sykes, M. T. and Prentice, I. C.: 1996, ‘Climate change, tree species distributions and forest dynamics: Acase study in the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone of Northern Europe’, Climatic Change, 34, 161–177.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Talkka, A., Hypén, H.: 1996, ‘Development and assessment of a gap-type model to predict the effects of climate change on forests based on spatial forest data’, Forest Ecol. Manage. 83, 217–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Topp, C. F. E. and Doyle, C. J.: 1996, ‘Simulating the impact of global warming on milk and forage production in Scotland: 2. The effects on milk yields and grazing management of dairy herds’, Agric. Syst. 52, 243–270.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tubiello, F. N., Donatelli, M., Rosenzweig, C. and Stockle, C. O.: 2000, ‘Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: Model predictions at two Italian locations’, Eur. J. Agron. 13, 179–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tuomenvirta, H., Alexandersson, H., Drebs, A., Frich, P. and Nordli, P. O.: 1998, ‘Trends in Nordic and Arctic extreme temperatures’, DNMI Report Nr: 13/98, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, p. 37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wheeler, T. R., Ellis, R. H., Hadley, P., Morison, J. I. L., Batts, G. R. and Daymond, A. J.: 1996, ‘Assessing the effects of climate change on field crop production’, Aspects Appl. Biol. 45, 49–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, J. and van Diepen, C. A.: 1995, ‘Effects of climate change on grain maize yield potential in the European Community’, Climatic Change 29, 299–331.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, J.: 2000a, ‘Modelling climate change impacts at the site scale on soybean’, in Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Lonsdale, K. G. (eds.), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture in Europe: An Integrated Assessment, Research Report 21, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, pp. 217–237.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, J.: 2000b, ‘Modelling climate change impacts at the site scale on potato’, in Downing, T. E., Harrison, P. A., Butterfield, R. E. and Lonsdale, K. G. (eds.), Climate Change, Climate Variability and Agriculture in Europe: An Integrated Assessment, Research Report 21, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, pp. 239–261.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. IBIMET-CNR, Piazzale le delle Pascine 18, 51044, Florence, Italy

    Gianpiero Maracchi

  2. ARRIAM, Lenin Street 82, 249020, Obninsk, Russia

    Oleg Sirotenko

  3. DISAT-UNIFI, Piazzale le delle Pascine 18, 51044, Florence, Italy

    Marco Bindi

Authors
  1. Gianpiero Maracchi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Oleg Sirotenko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Marco Bindi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 109-695, Newmarket, Auckland, New Zealand

    James Salinger

  2. World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland

    M.V.K. Sivakumar

  3. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA

    Raymond P. Motha

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2005 Springer

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Maracchi, G., Sirotenko, O., Bindi, M. (2005). Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe. In: Salinger, J., Sivakumar, M., Motha, R.P. (eds) Increasing Climate Variability and Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4166-7_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation