Abstract
This study uses hidden Markov models (HMM) to forecast conflict in the former Yugoslavia for the period January 1991 through January 1999. The political and military events reported in the lead sentences of Reuters news service stories were coded into the World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) event data scheme. The forecasting scheme involved randomly selecting eight 100-event “templates” taken at a 1-, 3- or 6-month forecasting lag for highconflict and low-conflict weeks. A separate HMM is developed for the highconflict- week sequences and the low-conflict-week sequences. Forecasting is done by determining whether a sequence of observed events fit the high-conflict or low-conflict model with higher probability.
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Schrodt, P.A. (2006). Forecasting Conflict in the Balkans using Hidden Markov Models. In: Trappl, R. (eds) Programming for Peace. Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4390-2_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4390-2_8
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