Projecting Future Climate Scenarios for Canada Using General Circulation Models: An Integrated Review

This chapter provides an overview of the General Circulation Models, Regional Models, and “downscaling” techniques which can improve model resolution at the local level. Authors review the available literature on projections of precipitation over the next 100 years for Canada. The future projections of Canada as a whole are considered, followed by a more detailed survey of precipitation projections including the possibility of dry spells. The stream-flow projections for the major river basins of Canada are also considered. Finally a detailed treatment of projections by regions, such as the North, southern Ontario, southern Quebec and New Brunswick, and western Canada, is presented. Authors conclude that: (a) from the literature reviewed, it appears that changes to the Canadian climate are projected to occur under virtually all scenarios and with all models and (b) the northern and western parts of Canada may be affected most severely by climate change. There are some obvious policy implications.