Abstract
Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Audit Commission (1996). By Accident or Design: Improving A&E Services in England and Wales. HMSO: London.
Department of Health (1996). The Patient’s Charter. HMSO: London.
NHS Confederation Royal College of Physicians (1997). Tack ling NHS Emergency Admissions: Policy into practice. NHS Confederation: Birmingham.
Department of Health (1998). Outpatient and Ward Attenders, England: Financial year 1996–1997. HMSO: London.
Hadfield J, Yates D and Berry A (1994). The emergency department and the community: model for improved coopera tion. J Roy Soc Med 87: 663–665.
Lane DC (1994). System dynamics practice: a comment on a case study in community care using systems thinking. J Opl Res Soc 45: 361–363.
Audit Commission (1997). The Coming of Age: Improving care services for older people. Audit Commission Publications: Abingdon.
Dale J, Green J, Reeds F and (1995). Primary care in the accident and emergency department: 1. Prospective identification of patients. Brit Med J, 311: 423–426.
Leydon GM, Lawrenson R, Meakin R and Roberts JA (1996). The Cost of Alternative Models Of Accident and Emergency Care: A systematic review. Report to North Thames Regional Health Authority: London.
Middleton EL and Whitney FW (1993). Primary care in the emergency room: a collaborative model. Nurs Connect 6: 29–40.
Davies R and Davies H (1994). Modelling patient flows and resource provision in health systems. Omega 22: 123–131.
Paul R (1995). Outpatient clinics. OR Insight 8 (2): 24–27.
O’Kane PC (1981). Simulation model of a diagnostic radiology department. Eur J Opl Res 6: 38–45.
Riley J (1995). Visual interactive simulation of accident and emergency departments. In: Kastelein A, Vissers J, van Merode GG and Delesie L (eds). Proceedings of ORAHS 21 Managing Health Care Under Resource Constraints. Eindhoven Univer sity Press: Maastricht, pp 135–141.
Altinel IK and Ulas E (1996). Simulation modelling for emer gency bed require-ment planting. A Opl Res 67: 183–210.
Romanin-Jacur G and Faechin P (1987). Optimal planning of a pediatric semi-intensive care unit via simulation. Eur J Opl Res 29: 192.
Mejia A, Shirazi R, Beech R and Balmer D (1998). Planning midwifery ser-vices to deliver continuity of Care. J Opl Res Soc. 49: 33–41.
Forrester JW (1961). Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
Taylor KS and Lane DC (1998). Simulation applied to health services: opportunities for applying the system dynamics approach. J Health Services Res and Policy 3: 226–232.
Lane DC (1999). System Dynamics Modelling of Patient Flows Through Acute Hospitals. Report for the NHS Executive: London.
Richardson GP (1991). Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Univ. Pennsylvania: Philadelphia.
Richamond BM, Vescuso P and Peterson S (1990). iThink Software Manuals. High Performance Systems, 145 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.: Hanover NH.
Lane DC (1992). Modelling As Learning: a consultancy methodology for enhancing learning in management teams. Eur J Opl Res 59: 64–84.
Lane DC (1995). On a resurgence of management simulations and games. J Opl Res Soc 46: 604–625.
Lane DC (1997). From discussion to dialogue: A case study using an interactive system dynamics modelling a approach (De la discussion an dialogue: one étude de cas d’utilisation interactive de la dynamique des systémes). Revue des Sys de Décis 6: 251–281.
Richardson GP and Pugh AL (1981). Introduction to System Dynamics Modelling with DYNAMO (republished edition). Productivity: Cambridge, MA.
Lane DC and Smart C (1996). Reinterpreting generic structure: evolution, application and limitations of a concept. Sys Dyn Rev. 12: 87–120.
Randers J (1980). Guidelines for model conceptualisation. In: Randers J (ed). Elements of the System Dynamics Method. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, pp 117–139.
Goodman MR (1974). Study Notes in System Dynamics. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA.
Tomlinson B (1992). Report of the Inquiry into London’s Health Service, Medical Education and Research. HMSO: London.
Kings Fund Commission (1992). London Health Care 2010: Changing the Future of Services in the Capital King’s Fund: London.
Department of Health (1993). Making London Better HMSO: London.
Lane DC (1995). The Folding Star: a comparative reframing and extension of validity concepts in system dynamics. In: Shimadar T and Saeed K (eds). Proceedings of the 1995 International System Dynamics Conference: Volume Plenary Program. Gakushuin University and the International System Dynamics Society: Tokyo, pp. 111–130.
Forrester JW and Senge PM (1980). Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models. In: Lagasto AA, Forrester JW and Lyneis JM (eds). System Dynamics: TIMS Studies in the Management Science. North-Holland: Oxford, pp 209–228.
Monefeldt C and Lane DC (1997). A&E Model: Validation notes. LSE research Notes.
Lane DA and Monefeldt C (1999). Client involvement in simulation model building: hints and insights from a case study in a London hospital. LSE OR Department Working Paper Series LSE OR 99/32.
Sterman JD (1984). Appropriate summary statistics for evaluat ing the historical fit of system dynamics models. Dynamica 10: 51–66.
Mass NJ (1991). Diagnosing surprise model behavior: a tool for evolving behavioral and policy insights (1981). Sys Dyn Rev 7: 68–86.
Lane DC, Monefeldt C and Rosenhead JV (1998). Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: A system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department. LSE OR Department Working Paper Series LSEOR 98. 23.
Forrester JW (1970). Counterintuitive behaviour of social systems. In: Collected Papers of Jay W Forrester (1975 collection). Wright-Allen Press: Cambridge, MA pp 211–244.
Fry L (1960). Casualties and casuals. Lancet 1: 163–166.
Royal College of Surgeons of England (1993). British Associa tion for Accident and Emergency Medicine Directory 1993. Royal College of Surgeons of England: London.
Kaplan RS and Norton DP (1992). The balanced scorecard— measures that drive performance. Harvard Bus Rev Jan/Feb: 71–79.
Ashby WR (1956). An Introduction to Cybernetics. Chapman & Hall: London.
Homer JB (1985). Worker Burnout: A dynamic model with implications for prevention and control. Sys Dyn Rev 1: 42–62.
Audit Commission (1992) Lying in Wait: The Use of Medical Beds in Acute Hospitals. HMSO: London.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2016 Operational Research Society
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Lane, D.C., Monefeldt, C., Rosenhead, J.V. (2016). Looking in the Wrong Place for Healthcare Improvements: A System Dynamics Study of an Accident and Emergency Department. In: Mustafee, N. (eds) Operational Research for Emergency Planning in Healthcare: Volume 2. The OR Essentials series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57328-5_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-57328-5_6
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-56811-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-57328-5
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)