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2013 | Buch

Campbell's Atlas of Oil and Gas Depletion

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Campbell's Atlas of Oil and Gas Depletion, Second Edition, is the product of a half-century of critical analysis and updating of data on the status of oil and gas depletion by country, region and the world as a whole. Separate analyses of conventional and non-conventional oil and gas, which are depleting at different rates and costs, show when these critical energy sources peak and decline. The Atlas also summarizes the history and political circumstances of each country to assess the impact on oil and gas production and reserves. It contrasts the First Half of the Oil Age, which saw the rapid expansion of the world economy, allowing the population to grow six-fold, with the Second Half, which will witness a general contraction as these easy, high-density energy supplies dwindle. The transition threatens to be a time of great economic, financial and political tensions. The Atlas, which has been compiled and updated by prominent geologist, former oil company executive, and oil analyst Colin Campbell since the 1960s, addresses the need for a reliable and comprehensive database on a subject essential to governments, industry, academia, and the population as a whole as we attempt to adapt to these critically changing circumstances.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introduction, Reporting, and Methodology

Frontmatter
1. Introduction

Soaring oil prices, which surged to $147 a barrel in mid-2008, have drawn attention to the issue of supply and demand, suggesting that the present production capacity limits are being breached. It leads people to ask if we are running out of oil. The simple answer is:

Yes, we started doing that when we used the first gallon.

But the world is a long way from finally running out. What it does face, however, is the end of the

First Half of the Age of Oil

, which lasted 150 years, giving rise to extraordinary changes in the way people lived.

C. J. Campbell
2. The Estimation and Reporting of Reserves and Production

The reporting standards for both production and reserves are atrociously weak in many countries, so it is necessary to explain the process of analysis as adopted here in some detail. For example, the 2011 edition of the BP Statistical Review, which is widely taken as an authoritative source coming from a major oil company, reports unchanged reserves in 36 countries. Yet it is not remotely plausible that new discovery and/or an upward revision of the amount recoverable should exactly match production over the past year.

C. J. Campbell
3. The Methodology of the Depletion Model

The foregoing discussion has described the extremely unreliable nature of public data. There are, in addition, various confidential industry databases of varying cost, access, quality and credibility. With these constraints, it becomes impossible to forecast future production with any degree of scientific exactitude. This in turn has facilitated those with motives to ignore or distort the issue of depletion, leaving the man-in-the-street relatively uninformed of what awaits him. The Economist prefers not to recognise depletion as imposed by Nature because it tends to undermine the notion of market supremacy, the bedrock of his subject. It offends his near-doctrinaire

faith

that supply must meet demand in an open market, and that one resource replaces another as the need arises with new technology breaking barriers. The Politician prefers not to face the issue because it would call for unpopular fundamental shifts of policy. In practice, his interest is not served by posing a

problem

unless he has a palatable

solution

. The Investor for his part does not want to know because it undermines the credibility of the assumptions upon which his portfolio was built. But at the end of the day, we all desperately need to know because our very future is at stake. Fortunately, there is now a new awakening despite the many vested interests bent on obfuscation. The recent financial and economic crisis affecting the world underlines the importance of coming to terms with reality.

C. J. Campbell

Africa

Frontmatter
4. Algeria

Algeria covers an area of about 2.4 million km

2

, supporting a population of about 36 million people. They are concentrated along the northern seaboard, where the capital, Algiers, is located. The Atlas Mountains in the north of the country border the Mediterranean and comprise two main ranges which are separated by a high plateau. The highest peaks rise to 2,500 m. To the south, lies the Sahara Desert, which is cut by a northerly trending divide that separates it into two arid depressions covered in sand dunes: the eastern desert lies at an altitude of about 600 m, while the western one locally drops below sea level. The Hoggar Mountains in the far south rise to as much as 3,000 m, exposing geological sequences that give a clue as to what lies beneath the deserts.

C. J. Campbell
5. Angola

Angola is a former Portuguese territory covering an area of some 1.3 million km

2

and supporting a population of about 20 million. A coastal strip is flanked by escarpments, rising to extensive plateaux between 1,500 and 2,500 m above sea level, which in turn give way to featureless plains falling eastwards to an elevation of about 500 m. The northern part of the country is drained by the great Congo River, whereas the southern part lies in the headwaters of the Zambesi, which flows eastwards across Africa. The cold Benguela Current has led to near desert conditions along the southern coast, but most of the country is covered by tropical forest. It has substantial mineral resources of diamonds, iron, manganese, copper and phosphate in addition to petroleum.

C. J. Campbell
6. Cameroon

The territory, known as the Cameroons, runs inland from the Gulf of Guinea to the south of Nigeria. A coastal plain gives way to a densely forested plateau at an altitude of about 600 m. In the north, the country is cut by a mountainous volcanic belt, capped by Mount Cameroon rising to 4,000 m, which in turn gives way to high savannah approaching Lake Chad.

C. J. Campbell
7. Chad

Chad is a landlocked country, covering some 1.2 million km 2 in the heart of Africa. In physiographic terms, it forms a large basin between the Tibesti Massif to the north, rising to over 3,000 m,and high plateaux to the south and east. Lake Chad, in the southwest, is a prominent feature. In the past, it was much larger than at present, being over 150 m deep, and draining over impressive falls into the Benue River, which runs westward to the Atlantic.Today, its level fl uctuates greatly with climatic changes, and it almost dried up in droughts during the 1970s and 1980s.The population of 11.5 million comprises many different tribal groups of mixed African and Arabic origins, speaking a range of local languages.

C. J. Campbell
8. Congo

The Republic of the Congo, which is not to be confused with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Zaire) comprises a long corridor, following the valley of the Congo River. A coastal plain gives way to a low range of mountains before opening into interior plains. It has a warm tropical climate supporting rain forests, but its lateritic soils give relatively low fertility. About one-third of the population of 4.1 million live in the capital, Brazzaville.

C. J. Campbell
9. Egypt

Egypt covers an area of about one million km 2.Apart from the Nile Valley forming a long fertile strip, most of the country is barren desert.The Red Sea and Gulf of Suez separate it from Arabia,while the Mediterranean washes its northern shore.It has common frontiers with Libya to the west and the Sudan to the south. Its population of almost 83 million makes it the third most populous country in Africa after Nigeria and Ethiopia.

C. J. Campbell
10. Gabon

Gabon covers an area of some 270,000 km

2

, straddling the Equator on the west coast of Africa. Partly dissected plateaux in the interior, rising to some 600–1,000 m above sea level, give way to a fairly narrow coastal strip, washed by the northward flowing Benguela Current. The country supports a population of 1.5 million, belonging to about ten different tribal groups who originally spoke Bantu languages before French became the

lingua franca

. Many live in Libreville, the capital, as well as Port Gentil. Gabon is bordered by the Congo to the south and east, while the Cameroons and the enclave of Equatorial Guinea lie to the north. Offshore are the islands of Sao Tome and Principe, in which the United States has taken a strategic interest.

C. J. Campbell
11. Libya

Libya covers an area of 1.77 million km

2

, supporting a population of about 6 million, who live mainly along the Mediterranean seaboard. It has common frontiers with Egypt to the east, Algeria and Tunisia to the west, and Chad, Sudan and Niger to the south. A mountain range, known as the Akhdar, rises to 900 m in the northeast, but is flanked by true deserts and rocky arid plateaux over most of the rest of the country.

C. J. Campbell
12. Nigeria

Nigeria covers 930,000 km

2

, extending from the deserts of the north, which border the Sahara, to tropical rain forests of the south. Most of the country is relatively flat-lying with rivers flowing through shallow valleys in extensive plains, although more mountainous terrain builds in the south on the border with the Cameroons. The country is drained by the Niger and Benue rivers, which converge in an extensive delta of freshwater swamps and mangroves. With 162 million inhabitants, it is the most populous country in Africa, also having one of the highest population densities. Lagos, the capital, is home to some eight million people. Nigeria joined OPEC in 1971, and has played a prominent part in the organisation.

C. J. Campbell
13. Sudan

The Sudan comprises a vast area of plains and plateaux, covering 2.6 million km

2

in the eastern part of the continent, which are drained by the upper reaches of the Nile River. It is flanked to the east by the Red Sea, and to the southwest by a high plateau of Darfur, which is capped by volcanic peaks rising to 3,000 m. Most of the county faces a hot, arid climate and barren soils, although higher rainfall is found in the mountainous south.

C. J. Campbell
14. Tunisia

Tunisia, which covers an area of 164,000 km

2

, lies at the eastern end of the Atlas Mountains of North Africa, being sandwiched between Algeria to the west and Libya to the east. The mountains are of moderate relief, with various ranges rising to about 1,500 m. They are flanked by an arid plateau, passing into the Sahara Desert to the south. The Mediterranean coast in the north is highly dissected but passes eastwards to a fertile coastal strip, bordering the Gulf of Tunis.

C. J. Campbell
15. Uganda

Uganda, which covers an area of 240,000 km

2

, is a land-locked country in the central part of Africa, lying between Tanzania and Kenya to the east, Zaire to the west and the Sudan to the north. Much of the country lies at an altitude of about 1,100 m, declining northward. Lake Victoria, the largest in Africa, straddles its southeastern border, and drains northwestwards into Lake Albert and the headwaters of the Nile. There are extensive marshlands around some of the lakes. The altitude moderates the equatorial climate. The main rainfall is in the south, leaving barren near-desert conditions in the north.

C. J. Campbell
16. Africa Region

Bolivia is a landlocked country of 1 million km

2

in the heartland of South America, being bordered by Brasil, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Peru. The capital, La Paz, lies at an altitude of about 3,500 m on the Altiplano, which is a barren intermontane valley, flanked by snow-capped Andean peaks, rising to over 6,500 m. It is dominated by Lake Titicaca, an unusual high altitude lake, covering some 8,500 km

2

, on which ply steamers of almost ocean-going size. To the east of the Andes lies the Oriente, an extensive and remote area of foothills, plains and tropical forests, occupying about two-thirds of the country.

C. J. Campbell

Asia-Pacific

Frontmatter
17. Australia

Australia is a continent in the southern hemisphere, covering an area of almost 7.8 million km

2

. The interior forms a huge barren depression of arid lands and deserts, separated from the eastern seaboard by what is known as the Great Dividing Range, rising to 2,200 m, which itself is a mature landscape of gorges, plateaux and subsidiary mountain spurs. Most of the population of 22 million live in the fertile temperate south-eastern corner of the continent, where the largest town, Sydney, is located. The Great Barrier Reef, the world’s largest coral reef, borders the northeast coast, while the large island of Tasmania lies off the south coast.

C. J. Campbell
18. Brunei

Brunei is a small independent State on the north coast of Borneo. It comprises two tracts of tropical rain forest, meeting in Brunei Bay. The eastern tract is mountainous, whereas the remainder is low lying. Together they cover an area of 5,700 km

2

and support a population of 400,000. The country also has sovereignty to extensive prospective tracts of the adjoining South China Sea. The mighty Baram River, which drains the interior of Borneo, marks the country’s western boundary, while Brunei Bay in the east forms a natural harbour.

C. J. Campbell
19. India

India was the cornerstone of the British Empire, but the territory was divided, following independence in 1947, with the secession of what is now Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, leaving Assam as a somewhat isolated enclave in the northeast, which itself has several active separatist movements.

C. J. Campbell
20. Indonesia

Indonesia is an archipelago, stretching for about 3,000 km from Asia to Australasia, and including the large islands of Java and Sumatra, as well as much of Borneo. Tropical rain forest is the natural vegetation, but this is now being depleted by logging and conversion to croplands, largely for biofuels. The country has a diverse ethnic population of some 236 million, which has increased sixfold over the past Century. It is predominantly Muslim, but about 3% are of Chinese origin, who have traded and settled in the area for centuries.

C. J. Campbell
21. Malaysia

Malaysia covers an area of some 330,000 km 2,and controls large sectors of the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea, which separate the Malay Peninsula from Borneo.The Malay Peninsula itself has a mountainous core rising to 2,000 m,consisting largely of karst country,whereas the Borneo territories of Sarawak and Sabah comprise heavily forested ranges,capped by Mt Kinabalu rising to over 4,000 m,being drained by the mighty Rajang and Baram rivers. The Malays themselves are of mixed origins,coming from various places throughout Southeast Asia. They also have some Arab blood from early traders,perhaps explaining why most belong to the Muslim faith. Chinese immigrants comprise about one-third of the 29 million inhabitants,some having been there for generations. Various indigenous tribes just survive,but most have now lost their cultural identity through integration. The timber industry now decimates the forests of Borneo,destroying the habitat of the Punan indigenous people,who have been forced to exchange their blow guns and

parangs

(machetes),with which they used to procure wild boar and wild sago in the forests,for squalid lives in run-down apartments.

C. J. Campbell
22. Pakistan

Pakistan, which was part of British India prior to independence in 1947, covers an area of 804,000 km 2 in the northwest of the Indian subcontinent. The fertile Indus valley, which runs through the country separates the arid hills of Baluchistan in the northwest from deserts to the southeast, while to the northeast develop the impressive mountain ranges of the Himalayan chain, rising to over 7,000 m. The country supports a population of 169 million, increasing at 2.4% a year. Some 80% of the population belong to the

Sunni

sect of Islam. The country is also home to a large number of refugees from neighbouring Afghanistan.

C. J. Campbell
23. Papua-New Guinea

Papua-New Guinea comprises the eastern end of a large island and an adjoining archipelago lying to the north of Australia. The northern part of the island comprises New Guinea, while the southern part is known as Papua. The western end of the island is the Indonesian territory of Irian Jaya.

C. J. Campbell
24. Thailand

Thailand, which covers an area of 520,000 km

2

, is made up of three physiographic elements: mountains rising to 1,600 m in the north give way in turn to the Khorat Plateau and a fertile river basin that drains into the Gulf of Thailand. A narrow corridor leads south connecting additional territory on the Malay Peninsula to the west of the Gulf of Thailand. The country is bordered by Myanmar (formally Burma) to the west and by Laos and Cambodia to the east. It is primarily an agricultural country, with a population of 68 million, although industry has been developed in recent years. Its economy is also supported by tin mining and the production of gem stones, supplemented by offshore oil and gas revenue.

C. J. Campbell
25. Vietnam

Vietnam forms the eastern margin of Indo-China, covering some 330,000 km 2.Its continental shelf extends into both the South China Sea and the southern part of the Gulf of Thailand. The land is dominated by two rivers systems: the Red River in the north; and the Mekong in the south, which are separated by a coastal strip, some 50_150 km wide. The Annamese Mountains run parallel with the coast, rising to 3,100 m, and are fl anked by high plateaux. The people, now numbering 89 million, are of mixed Indo-Chinese origins with a long history.

C. J. Campbell
26. Asia Pacific Region

The Region, as herein defined, comprises a number of countries on the southern margin of Asia from Pakistan in the west to Vietnam in the east, as well as Australasia and the Pacific Islands. It excludes China, North Korea and the former Soviet Union, on account of their Communist background. It covers a diverse terrain of 19 million km

2

, made up of two ancient shield areas, comprising the margins of the Siberian Shield to the north and that of Australia to the south, which are separated by mobile island arcs, largely following tectonic plate boundaries. Various, mainly Tertiary, sedimentary basins flank the shields and mobile belts, and some of them, especially offshore, are prospective for oil and gas.

C. J. Campbell

Eurasia

Frontmatter
27. Albania

Albania is a small mountainous country on the eastern border of the Adriatic Sea. The Dinaric Alps in the north rise to almost 3,000 m, forming rugged forested country, while to the south follows a gentler terrain supporting the main centres of population. An indented coastline is flanked by islands. The country supports a population of 3.2 million.

C. J. Campbell
28. Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan covers an area of about 90,000 km

2

on the western shore of the Caspian Sea, including the oil-bearing Apsheron Peninsula. It is bordered by Iran to the south, Russia to the north, and Armenia and Georgia to the west. A semi-autonomous enclave of Christian Armenians, known as Nogorno-Karabakh, lies in the west of the country, claiming yet-to-be recognised independence. About one-third of the country is made up of fertile lowlands, while the rest comprises the Caucasus Mountains, rising to almost 4,500 m. It enjoys a dry sub-tropical climate of cold winters and hot summers, moderated by altitude. The lowlands are cultivated, partly with the help of extensive irrigation canals. The present population amounts to about 9.2 million, mainly belonging to the

Shi’ia

branch of Islam.

C. J. Campbell
29. China

China covers an area of about 10 million km

2

, being surpassed in size only by Russia and Canada. It supports a population of about 1.3 billion people, amounting to one-fifth of the World’s total. They are made up of several different tribal and ethnic groups, speaking different languages. Accordingly, it is a land of great diversity. Highlands, flanking the Himalayas in the west and rising to an altitude of as much as 4,000 m, give way to dissected mountainous county, which in turn passes into the borderlands of the South China Sea. Its mountainous character helps explain the diversity of its people and the fact that it remained isolated from the rest of the World for much of its history.

C. J. Campbell
30. Croatia

Croatia is a crescent-shaped country in the north-western part of the Balkans, flanking the Adriatic Sea, having been previously part of Yugoslavia. The Dinaric Alps border an indented coastline with many islands and give way eastwards to rich agricultural plains which are drained by the Sava River flowing eastwards to the Black Sea. It supports a population of 4.4 million.

C. J. Campbell
31. Hungary

Hungary lies in the heartland of Eastern Europe, having common frontiers with Austria, Slovenia and Croatia to the west; Slovakia to the North; Serbia to the south; and the Ukraine and Romania to the east. It consists mainly of extensive plains around 200 m above sea-level, which are flanked to the north by the junction of the Alpine and Carpathian mountain chains. A large lake, known as Lake Balaton, lies in the western part of the country near the capital, Budapest, which sits on the great Danube River flowing southward through the plains. The population of almost ten million are mainly descended from the Magyars from Asia, with gypsies comprising about 2%.

C. J. Campbell
32. Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan covers an area of some 2.7 million km

2

, having common frontiers with Russia to the north and China to east. Much of the country comprises low-lying plains, including some extensive deserts, bordering the inland Caspian and Aral Seas, but to the south and east are high mountain ranges, associated with the Himalayan chain. The highest peak rises to as much as 7,000 m. The country suffers from an extreme climate of hot summers and cold winters, with generally low rainfall. The Aral Sea suffered an environmental crisis in 1986 when rivers flowing into it were diverted for irrigation, causing it to be so severely polluted and saline that crops could barely grow in the vicinity. The country, which ­supports a population of 16.6 million, was a member of the Soviet Union until 1991.

C. J. Campbell
33. Romania

The topography of Romania is dominated by a great arc of the Carpathian Mountains that swings through the centre of the country. The highest peak rises to 2,500 m. The passes through the mountains exercised a certain strategic influence in earlier years, being the gateways for migrants from the east. The mountains are flanked by coastal plains to the east, bordering the Black Sea, and to the west by an interior basin of rolling country, known as Transylvania, which is in turn flanked by the Apuseni Massif. The great Danube River forms the frontier with Bulgaria to the south. The country supports a population of nearly 22 million.

C. J. Campbell
34. Russia

Russia is the world’s largest country covering an area of 17 million km

2

(including the Arctic regions), which is almost double the size of the United States. It supports a population of about 143 million, being rather sparsely populated. The country, which has an extreme continental climate, can be divided into six main physiographic regions, described generally from west to east. First, is the Russian Plain, which is a glaciated terrain of lakes and rivers, being drained principally by the Volga River that flows south into the Caspian Sea. Second, are the northward-trending Ural Mountains, which is an ancient chain rising to no more than 2,000 m and cut by accessible passes. Third, are the huge plains of West Siberia, which are drained by the Ob and Yenisey Rivers, flowing northward to the Arctic. Fourth is the Central Siberian Plateau, covering extensive tracts at an altitude of 300–700 m, being flanked to the south and east by mountainous country, and including Lake Baikal, the world’s largest lake, covering 31,500 km

2

. Fifth, are the mainly mountainous Pacific borderlands, including the peninsulas of Sakhalin and Kamchatka, which flank the Sea of Okhotsk. Sixth are the Arctic Seas and islands, some of which are of a substantial size.

C. J. Campbell
35. Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan is a remote country adjoining the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea, being bordered by Iran, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. It is mainly covered by deserts, although the foothills of the Himalayan Mountains extend into the southeastern parts of the country. A curious shallow saline lagoon, known as Kara-Bogaz Gol, covers an area of 12,000 km

2

on the shore of the Caspian. Extreme evaporation in the hot climate makes it the world’s largest deposit of salt.

C. J. Campbell
36. Ukraine

The Ukraine consists mainly of plains which are flanked by the foothills of the Carpathians to the west, and the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the south. The latter are separated by the Crimea, which is a partly mountainous virtual island, connected to the mainland by a low-lying narrow isthmus. The country is drained by the Dnieper and Donets Rivers, with associated lakes and tributaries, flowing south into the Black Sea. It is known for its rich soils and agricultural lands and also has substantial iron and coal deposits, supporting a large iron and steel industry. The country has a population of nearly 46 million.

C. J. Campbell
37. Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is a remote, arid, land-locked country to the east of the Caspian, being sandwiched between Turkmenistan to the south and Kazakhstan to the north. The Aral Sea in the northern part of the country is a saline inland sea lacking an outlet. It is drying up and has become heavily polluted by pesticides and nutrients from agricultural activities in the watershed of the rivers that drain into it. Mountainous country develops to the southeast, with the highest peak rising to 4,300 m. The intervening valleys, including especially the Fergana Valley, are fertile, being cultivated with the help of irrigation canals. These valleys hold most of the population as well as the major towns, including the historic city of Tashkent. The population of 28.5 million is predominantly made up of devout Sunni Muslims. The economy is dominated by the production of cotton and gold. The country also possesses one of the largest military establishments in Central Asia with some 65,000 troops under arms.

C. J. Campbell
38. Eurasia Region

The Eurasia Region is defined for this purpose as the former Communist bloc of the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. These countries had a common economic and political environment affecting the pattern of oil and gas development. It is noteworthy, however, that the discovery pattern is substantially the same as for the other regions because it is imposed by Nature.

C. J. Campbell

Europe

Frontmatter
39. Austria

The western part of Austria is made up of impressive Alpine Ranges, rising to 3,800 m, while to the east lie foothills and extensive plains. The country is drained by the Danube River and its tributaries, flowing eastwards to the Black Sea. It supports a population of 8.4 million.

C. J. Campbell
40. Denmark

Denmark is a low-lying peninsula between the North Sea and the seaways leading to the Baltic to the east. An archipelago of large islands crosses the Kattegat seaway, with Copenhagen, the capital, being located on the easternmost island, Sjaeland, only 20 km from the Swedish coast. The country supports a population of 5.6 million.

C. J. Campbell
41. France

France, the largest country in Western Europe, is made up of beautiful rolling farm-lands, flanked by the mountains ranges of the Alps to the east, the Pyrenees to the south and the Vosges to the northeast. The remains of older mountain belts form both the Massif Central, in the middle of the country, and the rocky peninsula of Normandy projecting into the Atlantic. The Seine and Garonne Rivers drain the western part of the country into the Atlantic, while the Rhone, in the east, flows southward into the Mediterranean. France also owns the island of Corsica in the Mediterranean. The country supports a population of 63 million.

C. J. Campbell
42. Germany

Germany, which supports the largest economy in Europe, is made up of three physiographic regions, comprising central uplands, including the Harz Mountains, which separate extensive plains in the north from hilly country in the south, bordering the Vosges and Alpine mountain chains. The mighty Rhine River drains the southern part of the country, while the Elbe and Weser rivers flow into the North Sea. The south-eastern part of the country is drained by the headwaters of the Danube, flowing eastward eventually to the Black Sea. The country, which enjoys a temperate climate, supports extensive forests, leaving about one-third of it under agriculture. With almost 82 million inhabitants, it is the most populous country in Europe.

C. J. Campbell
43. Italy

Italy forms a mountainous peninsula extending into the Mediterranean, also having jurisdiction over the islands of Sicily and Sardinia. The Apennine mountain range, which forms the backbone of the country, rises to over 3,000 m, and is flanked to the east by a low-lying coastal strip, bordering the Adriatic Sea. The Po Valley, which flows eastward across the northern part of the country, separates the Apennines from the frontal ranges of the Alps. The country supports a population of almost 61 million.

C. J. Campbell
44. Netherlands

The Netherlands is a relatively small country of 41,000 km

2

on the northwest coast of Europe. It lies on the delta of the River Rhine, bordering Germany and Belgium. A large, partly reclaimed, inland sea, known as the Zuider Zee, extends in from the North Sea, while a string of islands runs parallel with the coast. Most of the country is low-lying, with about one-fifth being below sea-level behind a complex system of dykes, some of which have been in existence since the Middle Ages. The delta is subsiding and the sea-level is rising, making the country increasingly vulnerable to floods: one flood in 1953, which was caused by storms and high tides, claimed the lives of over 2,000 people. Even so, the country supports a population of nearly 17 million.

C. J. Campbell
45. Norway

Norway forms the mountainous margin of Scandinavia. The coastline is cut by deep fjords flanked by a string of offshore islands, which shelter the inland waters. To the southeast, a deep inlet from the Skagarrak leads to Oslo, the capital. Norway also exercises jurisdiction of the Arctic islands of Svalbard (Spitzbergen) and Jan Mayen. The country measures some 1,700 km in length, reaching far into the Arctic Circle: from southern Norway to its North Cape is as far as it is to Rome. It should be noted that oil and gas within the Polar Region and in water deeper than 500 m do not qualify as

Regular Conventional

by definition and are excluded from this assessment, being considered in Chap. 12. The country with 4.9 million inhabitants is sparsely populated.

C. J. Campbell
46. United Kingdom

The United Kingdom (or the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to give it its full name) comprises the island of Britain itself and an enclave in the north of Ireland. Britain itself is made up of England, Scotland and Wales, which are discrete regions with long histories that are rediscovering their identity. Mountainous country develops to the north and west, but for the most part it is made up of rolling temperate farmland, on which is superimposed spreading urban and suburban settlement. It is flanked to the north by a series of islands, including the Hebrides and Orkneys. The southeast is drained mainly by the River Thames and its tributaries flowing into the southern North Sea, while the Clyde flows westwards through Scotland in the north. The country supports a population of almost 63 million, of whom about 10 % are relatively recent immigrants, many coming from its former Empire.

C. J. Campbell
47. Europe Region

The Europe Region is defined for this purpose as the countries of Western Europe, excluding the former Communist bloc of Eastern Europe, because they lived under a very different environment over much of the past 50 years. The table above refers the main oil and gas producers, with the remaining other countries being listed below. Those indicated (*) have minor amounts of oil and/or gas which are included in the assessment of other minor producers in the world in Chapter 11, as the amounts are too small to model meaningfully. Some of them are however major consumers of oil and gas.

C. J. Campbell

Latin America

Frontmatter
48. Argentina

Argentina covers an area of 2.8 million km

2

at the southern end of the South American continent, and supports a population of about 41 million. The impressive Andes Mountains form the western boundary with Chile, while to the east lie extensive plains, known as the

Pampas.

The Straits of Magellan separate the mainland from Tierra del Fuego in the extreme south. The climate is mainly temperate, which made it an attractive destination for European immigrants. The country is flanked to the east by a very large continental shelf bordering the Malvinas (Falkland Islands), which it endeavoured to repossess in 1982 by military means, although its oil prospects appear limited, despite some recent discoveries. Argentina also lays claim to various other islands and sections of Antarctica.

C. J. Campbell
49. Bolivia

Bolivia is a landlocked country of 1 million km

2

in the heartland of South America, being bordered by Brasil, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile and Peru. The capital, La Paz, lies at an altitude of about 3,500 m on the Altiplano, which is a barren intermontane valley, flanked by snow-capped Andean peaks, rising to over 6,500 m. It is dominated by Lake Titicaca, an unusual high altitude lake, covering some 8,500 km

2

, on which ply steamers of almost ocean-going size. To the east of the Andes lies the Oriente, an extensive and remote area of foothills, plains and tropical forests, occupying about two-thirds of the country.

C. J. Campbell
50. Brasil

Brasil is the largest country in South America, covering some 8.5 million kms

2

and supporting a population of about 197 million. Mountain ranges of moderate relief form the northern boundary with Venezuela, giving way to the vast rain forests of the Amazon basin. To the south, lie extensive dissected tablelands of forest and grass. Most of the population is concentrated along the Atlantic littoral, where the largest city, Sao Paulo, with about 20 million inhabitants, and Rio de Janeiro, the former capital, are located. Brasilia is a purpose-built modern capital at an altitude of 1,000 m in the south of the country. It became the seat of government in 1960, and now houses a population of about two million.

C. J. Campbell
51. Chile

Chile is a long, narrow, mountainous country flanking the southern limits of the great Andean mountain chain of South America. Wide barren uplands, forming an extension of the Altiplano of Bolivia, give way southwards to mountain ranges, with the highest peak rising to almost 7,000 m. In the northwest of the country is the coastal Atacamas Desert, but most of the country enjoys a temperate, even Mediterranean climate. To the south is a highly indented terrain of fjords, lakes and islands. About one-tenth of the country is arable land, some providing rich pasture for cattle, with the rest being desert, wild mountain or forested terrain. It is drained by a number of relatively small rivers flowing westwards into the Pacific.

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52. Colombia

Colombia lies at the northwest corner of South America, next to the Isthmus of Panama. It is cut by three ranges of the Andes, which are separated from each other by the Magdalena and Cauca Valleys. In the southeast are the plains and grasslands of the Llanos which pass into the forests of the Upper Amazon and Orinoco valleys. In the north are coastal lowlands, passing into the arid terrain of the Guajira Peninsula, bordering Venezuela. The country is washed by the Caribbean to the north and the Pacific to the west, and drained by the Magdalena River, flowing northwards into the Caribbean, as well as by the Orinoco headwaters in the deep interior.

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53. Ecuador

Ecuador is the second smallest country in Latin America, covering some 280,000 km

2

in the northwest of the continent, between Colombia and Peru. It comprises three very different terrains. In the west, lie partly barren coastal lowlands, supporting extensive banana plantations and the busy port of Guayaquil, at the head of a gulf with the same name. Next follow the impressive Andean ranges, capped by active volcanoes rising to over 6,300 m, with the capital Quito, lying in a verdant intermontane valley. In the east, is the so-called Oriente, a vast tract of tropical rain forest, drained by the headwaters of the Amazon. Also of mention are the Galapagos Islands in the Pacific, whose exceptional fauna was made famous by the pioneering studies of Charles Darwin in 1836.

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54. Mexico

Mexico covers an area of almost 2 million km

2

, being bordered by the United States to the north and Guatemala and Belize to the south. A central plateau, between 1,000 and 2,000 m above sea-level, is flanked by two branches of the Sierra Madre mountain chain, which is capped by volcanic peaks rising to almost 6,000 m above sea-level. Baja California forms a long peninsula on the Pacific margin in the northwest of the country, while the Yucatan Peninsula in the southeast flanks the Gulf of Mexico, being made up, in part, of inhospitable limestone karst country. Much of Mexico is arid, except for the coastal areas and the highlands of the south. The population has risen sevenfold since 1900 to 115 million, of whom about 21 million live in Mexico City, one of the World’s largest and most polluted capitals. An additional seven million Mexicans live in the United States, some illegally.

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55. Peru

Peru straddles the great Andean mountain range, whose snow-capped peaks rise to over 5,000 m. It is flanked to the west by a coastal littoral of semi-desert, caused by the cooling waters of the Humboldt Current; and to the east by a huge area of tropical forest in the Amazon headwaters. The population has exploded over the past century by a factor of 5.6, with Lima, the capital, now supporting, if that is the word, some eight million inhabitants.

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56. Trinidad

Trinidad is one of the two islands making up the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, off the east coast of Venezuela. It covers an area of 5,000 km

2

and is cut by the Northern and the Central Ranges, rising to respectively 900 and 300 m, while in the south are a series of low hills, termed the Southern Ranges. The intervening lowlands are partly swampy, giving the Caroni and Ortoire Swamps. The natural vegetation is tropical rain forest, but most of the lowlands are under cultivation, with sugarcane being a substantial cash crop. The island supports a population of one million people, which has increased by a factor of four over the last century, making it a crowded place with a density of 252/km

2

. The bulk of the population is of African and Indian origin, being the descendants of slaves and indentured labour brought in to work the sugar estates after the abolition of slavery. The remaining 20% are of mixed Spanish, French, Portuguese, English, Chinese and Amer-Indian descent.

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57. Venezuela

Venezuela is a country with a diverse terrain. In the south lie the tropical rain forests of the high Roraima hinterland and the Orinoco River basin, which pass westwards into the grasslands and plains of the Llanos. Two Andean ranges, capped by Pico Bolivar, at an altitude of 5,007 m, follow to the north, before giving way to the badlands of Falcon and the deserts of Paraguana, complete with sand dunes and cactus. To the West, lies Lake Maracaibo, a large inland shallow sea, while to the East is the Orinoco delta and the Gulf of Paria, which separates Venezuela from Trinidad. The country has rich natural resources, with substantial iron-ore deposits in the interior, in addition to its ample oil endowment. It also owns a number of small Caribbean islands, including Sta. Margarita. It supports a population of 29 million, which is not an excessive number for such a rich county.

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58. Latin America Region

Latin America, which for this purpose is defined as South America, Mexico and the Caribbean islands, includes ten significant oil producing countries. The region is dominated by Venezuela and Mexico, having the largest reserves of

Regular Conventional Oil

. Two of the countries also have substantial

Non-Conventional

deposits in the form of the deepwater oil and gas of Brasil and the heavy oils of Venezuela.

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Middle East

Frontmatter
59. Bahrain

Bahrain is the largest of a group of small flat-lying islands off Saudi Arabia, to which it is now linked by a causeway. It claims sovereignty to the adjoining waters having now settled earlier disputes with Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia. It became a British protectorate in 1861, being used as a base from which to control piracy, before gaining independence as an emirate in 1971. In 2002, it became a constitutional monarchy under Hamad ib Isa al-Khalifah. It is primarily an Islamic country, of whom about half belong to the Shi’ia sect, but it has cosmopolitan society, now enjoying rapid economic development. It has provided the United States with a military base since the 1990s.

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60. Iran

Iran is a mountainous country of high relief, covering almost 1.65 million km

2

, which separates the Caspian Sea from the Persian Gulf. The deeply eroded Zagros Mountains run through the country parallel with the Persian Gulf, with peaks rising to over 4,000 m, while the Elburz Mountains form a narrow range in the north rising to over 5,600 m above the Caspian from which they are separated by a narrow, fertile and partly forested coastal belt. To the east, lies an extensive arid plateau, with salt flats, at an altitude of about 900 m, which is in turn flanked farther to the east by ranges of hills along the frontier with Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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61. Iraq

Iraq is a landlocked country of 440,000 km

2

in the centre of the Middle East. It includes relatively fertile regions along the valleys of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers, which drain into the Persian Gulf. But they are bordered by an arid plateau to the north and by extensive deserts to the south and west. It is home to almost 33 million people, of whom about 60% belong to the

Shi’ia

sect of Islam. An important Kurdish minority live in the north of the country

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62. Kuwait

Kuwait is a small, flat-lying territory of 20,000 km

2

, adjoining the mouth of the Euphrates River at the head of the Persian Gulf. Kuwait City developed as an important trading town on the shores of a bay at the edge of desert which extends inland to the west. There are several islands off the coast of which the largest is Bubiyan. The giant Burgan oilfield was found in 1938 bringing enormous wealth to the town and its inhabitants, especially its ruling family.

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63. Neutral Zone

The Neutral Zone is an anomalous territory. When Britain dismembered the Ottoman Empire and sphere of influence at the end of the First World War, it left a sort of no-man’s land between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, to avoid the difficulties of determining a firm boundary between the countries. It was a matter of small import in those days because the desert was occupied by no more than a few wandering Bedouin.

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64. Oman

Oman lies on the south-eastern limit of the Arabian Peninsula, adjoining the mouth of the Persian Gulf. It covers an area of 309,000 km

2

, made up of a fertile coastal strip along the northeast coast, which is separated from extensive deserts over the rest of the country by a mountain range, which rises to over 3,000 m, The population of three million is concentrated on the northeast coast, which enjoys a hot and humid climate, watered by the SW monsoon. Muscat, the capital, which is an attractive old town of tree-lined streets and parks, supports a population of around 300,000.

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65. Qatar

Qatar forms a large promontory extending into the Persian Gulf from Arabia. It consists mainly of low-lying sand dunes, but a low range of limestone hills rises along the western seaboard. It is flanked by a number of islands, some of which have been subject to a, now settled, dispute with Bahrain.

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66. Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is an arid, barren land of about 2 million km

2

, covering most of the Arabian Peninsula. The western border, flanking the Red Sea, is made up of low mountains rising southwards from about 1,500 m to double that height. The southern end comprises the Asir region, which is relatively fertile thanks to a higher rainfall. To the east, follows an extensive plateau dipping eastwards towards the Persian Gulf, which is however cut by some ranges, including the Tuwayq Mountains, rising to over 1,000 m. The southern part of the country is made up of the so-called Empty Quarter (or

Rub’ al-khali

), the world’s largest desert covering an area of 650,000 km

2

. It in turn gives way to mountainous country, bordering the Oman. Most of the borders have been subject to dispute in the past.

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67. Syria

Syria, covering an area of 185,000 km

2

, lies on the western margin on the Middle East Region. It is substantially landlocked, being bordered by Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and the Lebanon, but does have a short Mediterranean coastline. There are two mountain ranges; one, rising to about 2,500 m, extends north eastwards from the Lebanon border in the south, while the other, at a lower elevation, runs northwards, being separated from the Mediterranean by a narrow coastal strip. The country is drained by the Orontes River in the west that flows northwards into Turkey, and by the headwaters of the Euphrates, flowing eastwards into Iraq. The western region enjoys a Mediterranean climate with adequate rainfall and is relatively fertile, contrasting with the barren lands to the east.

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68. Turkey

Turkey occupies a territory of 783,562 km

2

that lies both between the Middle East and Europe, and between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The arid Anatolian Plateau, at an altitude of about 1,000 m, is flanked to the north and south by respectively the Pontus and Taurus mountain ranges, the latter rising to about 2,500 m. The highest point in the country is the snow-capped volcanic peak of Mt Ararat, which reaches 5,165 m in the northeast of the country, known for being where the biblical ark supposedly made its landfall. The territory of Thrace in the northwest is separated from the rest of the country by an important waterway, made up of the Sea of Marmara, the Dardanelles and the Bosporus, which connects the Black Sea with the Mediterranean. Relatively narrow and fertile coastal strips adjoin the Mediterranean to the west and the Black Sea to the north. The Mediterranean coast is indented and adjoined by a number of islands.

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69. United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates comprise seven territories at the southern end of the Persian Gulf bordering Saudi Arabia. They are made up of Abu Dhabi, which is by far the largest, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm al-Qaywayn, Ra’s al-Khaymah and Al-Fujairah. Of these, only Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah have significant oil resources, with those of Abu Dhabi being by far the largest.

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70. Yemen

Yemen covers an area of 530,000 km

2

on the southern margin of the Arabian Peninsula, bordering the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. A coastal strip gives way to a high mountainous massif rising to almost 4,000 m, which in turn passes into the deserts of the Rub’ al-Khali to the northeast. Monsoon rains from the Indian Ocean have given fertile soils along the coastal strip and the flanks of the massif, where most of the population, amounting to 24 million, live. The barren interior is sparsely populated. The capital is Sana’a in the northwest, but Aden on the south coast is the commercial centre, having been a coaling station in earlier years for shipping to the East.

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71. Middle East Region

The Region, as herein defined, extends from the Black Sea and the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, including the Persian Gulf. It is made up primarily of barren lands including the famous deserts of Arabia, together covering some six million square kilometres and also includes some mountain ranges, including especially the Zagros Mountains of Iran.

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North America

Frontmatter
72. Canada

Canada is the second largest country in the World covering 10 million km

2

, much of it being north of the Arctic Circle. The central plains and lakes, which overlie the Canadian Shield, are flanked respectively by the Rocky Mountains to the west, the older Appalachian chain to the east, and an archipelago of Arctic Islands to the north. The country has an extensive common border with the United States, much drawn along the somewhat artificial line of the 49

o

Latitude. It is flanked to the northeast by the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland and to the north by the Arctic Ocean. It is a very sparsely populated country supporting no more than about 35 million.

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73. USA

The United States of America covers an area of 9.6 million km

2

, comprising the southern half of the North American Continent, being bordered to the north by Canada and to the south by Mexico. It also owns Alaska and Hawaii, as well as a number of islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, which are not included in this assessment. The central plains are flanked to the west by the Rocky Mountains, rising to 4,300 m, and to the east by the older Appalachian Range, rising to 2,000 m. The Mississippi River flows southwards to the Gulf of Mexico at New Orleans, and a number of large lakes on the Canadian border drain into the Atlantic through the Hudson River.

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74. North America Region

The table lists the standard deviation of the range of published data on reserves. A relative confidence ranking in the validity of the underlying assessment is also given: the lower the Surprise Factor, the less the chance for revision. The region has been very thoroughly explored leaving little scope for surprise. The high standard deviation, as regards Canada’s reported reserves, reflects the anomalous reporting on non-conventional oil in the tar-sands by the

Oil and Gas Journal

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Global Analysis and Perspective

Frontmatter
75. The World

The above table sums the regional assessments in the preceding chapters, adding the combined amounts from the minor producing countries. It is stressed that the databases are weak, inconsistent and unreliable, so the estimates should be generously rounded as indicated in the following table.

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76. Non-Conventional Oil and Gas

A major cause of confusion in oil statistics is that there is no standard definition of the boundary between the so-called

Conventional

and

Unconventional

oil and gas. It is clearly important to make clear distinctions because the different categories have different distributions, rates of extraction, costs and other characteristics. In this study, it has been found expedient to recognise what is termed

Regular Conventional Oil (>17.5

o

API)

and

Gas

, defined to exclude the following categories, which are designated as

Non-Conventional

:

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77. The Oil Age in Perspective

The main aim of this book has been to evaluate the world’s resources of oil and gas, and their distribution by country. It is a difficult task because of lax reporting standards and ambiguous definitions, yet it is an important issue given the central place of these energy supplies in the modern world. From this standpoint it seemed useful to try to place the Oil Age in an historical context both by country and for the world as a whole. History in turn leads to current affairs, in which oil and gas supply appear to be increasingly important elements. Such an evaluation suggests that there are several sensitive and as yet ill-defined factors influencing the current political situation, but speculation on their nature has been omitted from this edition in the interests of diplomacy.

C. J. Campbell
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Campbell's Atlas of Oil and Gas Depletion
verfasst von
Colin J Campbell
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Verlag
Springer New York
Electronic ISBN
978-1-4614-3576-1
Print ISBN
978-1-4614-3575-4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3576-1