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Erschienen in:
Introduction Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

12. Calibration and Validation

verfasst von : Klaus G. Troitzsch, Luis G. Nardin, Ph.D., Giulia Andrighetto, Ph.D., Áron Székely, Ph.D., Valentina Punzo, Rosaria Conte, Ph.D., Corinna Elsenbroich, Ph.D.

Erschienen in: Social Dimensions of Organised Crime

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to summarise the problems incurred during the phases of calibrating and validating the extortion racket models used by the GLODERS project. The chapter starts with the discussion of the data availability and summarises shortly the contents of Sect. 4.​3. It continues with a discussion of what parameterisation, calibration, sensitivity analysis and validation have to do with each other and ends up with a discussion of the validity of the GLODERS models.

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Vorheriges Kapitel A Simulation Model of Intra-organisational Conflict Regulation in the Crime World
Nächstes Kapitel Conclusion
Fußnoten
1
The algorithm used for the approximate calculation of the probability density function was first described by Cobb (1978), extended by Herlitzius (1990) to multivariate distributions and, for instance, used by Troitzsch (1998). The algorithm works only for standardised variables and yields the best possible approximation between the empirical moments up to fourth order and the same moments of a probability distribution described with a density function which is an exponential function of a polynomial in two variables up to fourth order. Hence the diagram in Fig. 1 does not show the “true” distribution but a quite good approximation as the comparison between colour shades, contours and scattergram shows. Contours are for values of the probability density function which are multiples of 0.015; its maximum is 0.307, and the value of the cumulated density function within the outermost contour line is 0.95 which means that Trapani, Reggio Calabria and Palermo lie within the 95 % confidence region.
 
2
Part of this chapter was published in Nardin et al. (2016) “Reprinted with permission of the Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems.
 
3
There is no exact number of members affiliated to the Sicilian mafia, but according to official reports, the number should be considerably lower than the estimated 3000 of the mid-1990s, perhaps as low as 2000 (see Paoli, 2014).
 
4
The provinces of Palermo (the capital of Sicily), Trapani and Agrigento (Paoli, 2014) are particularly influenced by the Sicilian mafia.
 
5
During the early 1980s, the second mafia war took place. It was driven by the family from Corleone against other families from Palermo.
 
9
Simulator available for download at https://​github.​com/​gnardin/​GLODERSs/​.
 
10
The numbers of agents of each type are arbitrary. However, we assume that five entrepreneurs per mafioso is a reasonable number to be handled by an individual. Moreover, the number of police officers ranges from 5 to 20, meaning that in an extreme case there is the same number of police officers as mafiosi.
 
11
All statistical significance tests shown in this chapter are performed using the Wilcoxon rank sum test with α = 0.05 (Hollander & Wolfe, 1973, pp. 68–75). We chose this test due to the fact that our data cannot be assumed normally distributed under the Shapiro-Wilk test (Shapiro & Wilk, 1965).
 
12
We are aware that several other factors may have influenced this change; however, here we model only the normative aspect.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Calibration and Validation
verfasst von
Klaus G. Troitzsch
Luis G. Nardin, Ph.D.
Giulia Andrighetto, Ph.D.
Áron Székely, Ph.D.
Valentina Punzo
Rosaria Conte, Ph.D.
Corinna Elsenbroich, Ph.D.
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
Social Dimensions of Organised Crime

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-45167-1

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-45169-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45169-5_12