Skip to main content
Fachgebiete
Automobil + Motoren Bauwesen + Immobilien Business IT + Informatik Elektrotechnik + Elektronik Energie + Nachhaltigkeit Finance + Banking Management + Führung Marketing + Vertrieb Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe Versicherung + Risiko
DE
EN
Bücher
Zeitschriften
Themenseiten
Organisationspsychologie Projektmanagement Marketing Smart Manufacturing
Weitere Formate
Podcasts Webinare Technik Webinare Wirtschaft Kongresse Veranstaltungskalender Awards
Jetzt Einzelzugang starten
Zugang für Unternehmen
Referenzkunden
SLX-Digitalkonferenz: Zukunftswerkstatt 2024

Mehr Umsatz mit Top-Kontakten

Am 7. Mai erfahren Sie, wie Vertriebsteams Leadgenerierung, Leadnurturing und Leadstrategien effizient steuern können.
Erweiterte Suche
Anmelden
nach oben
Erschienen in:
Introduction Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Modeling Research

verfasst von : Dean S. Hartley III

Erschienen in: Unconventional Conflict

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Before the U.S. government started worrying about unconventional conflict, science fiction authors had posited models of human behavior. The most popular early entry was Asimov’s psychohistory (Asimov, 1951). The concept was an analog of the gas laws of physics: although the motion of a particular molecule of gas is essentially random, when large enough numbers of gas molecules are present, the actions of the mass of gas molecules can be predicted. Similarly, laws of human actions in the aggregate should be discoverable. In this chapter, we will look at several modeling constructs that have been advanced for models of unconventional conflict. We review the many technical modeling approaches that might be used for these models and follow with the descriptions of several models that have been created to answer questions about unconventional conflict. We conclude with the results of a series of workshops concerning modeling requirements.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren
Vorheriges Kapitel Descriptions of Unconventional Conflict
Nächstes Kapitel The DIME/PMESII Paradigm
Literatur
Abdollahian, M., Baranick, M., Efird, B., & Kugler, J. (2006). Senturion: A predictive political simulation model. Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Abdollahian, M., Kugler, J., Nicholson, B., & Oh, H. (2010). Politics and power. In A. Kott & G. Citrenbaum (Eds.), Estimating impact (pp. 69–79). New York: Springer.
AMORS III. (1995). Third Asia-Pacific Military Operations Research Symposium: Operations research for regional security issues in peace and low intensity conflict. Bangkok, Thailand: AMORS.
Asimov, I. (1951). The foundation trilogy. New York: Doubleday & Company.
BAE Systems. (2007, February 22). Battle command LIVE: Liquid information virtual environment. Arlington, VA.
Bell, S., Caglayan, A., Cassani, L., & Murdie, A. (2013). Predictive societal indicators of radicalism—Forecasting political violence. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 427–436). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Berman, E., & Kuznar, L. A. (2010). Economic theories of conflict for COIN/STTR. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 30–33). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Bitinas, E. J. (2009). Pythagoras—An agent-based distillation system. In Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Workshop II, 8–10 June 2009. Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Carley, K. M. (2003). Dynamic network analysis. In R. Breiger, K. M. Carley, & P. Pattison (Eds.), Dynamic network modeling and analysis: Workshop summary and papers (pp. 133–145). Washington, DC: National Research Council.
Carley, K. M. (2004). Dynamic network analysis for counter terrorism. MORS Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) Conference. Washington, DC: MORS.
Carley, K. M., Morgan, G., Lanham, M., & Pfeffer, J. (2013). Multi-modeling and socio-cultural complexity: Reuse and validation. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 128–137). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Cassani, L., Caglayan, A., Morgan, W., Mooney, L., Boyles, A., & Weiss, B. (2013). Semantic integration of socio-cultural knowledge for complex operations. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 447–456). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Chaturvedi, A. (2009). Reference world: extensible toolkit for COCOMs. Human, Social, Cultural Behavior (HSCB) Workshop II, June 8–10, 2009. Washington, DC: NDU.
Cioppa, T. M., & Lucas, T. W. (2007). Efficient nearly orthogonal and space-filling Latin hypercubes. Technometrics, 49(1), 45–55.CrossRef
Clausewitz, C. v. (1993). On war. New York: Knopf.
Cobb, L. (2010). The impact of social theory on model development. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 170–184). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Efird, B. (2009). Senturion overview. In COCOM requirements for human social and cultural behavior (HSCB) modeling, 8–10 June 2009. Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Flynn, M. F. (1988, April). An introduction to psychohistory, Part I of II. In S. Schmidt (Ed.), Analog Science Fiction/Science Fact, CVIII(4) (pp. 60–78).
Goldstone, J. A. (2010). Principles for modeling to guide counterinsurgency operations. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 347–362). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Hartley, D. S. (1995). Modeling psycho-social attributes in conflict. In AMORS (Ed.), Third Asia-Pacific military operations research symposium: Operations research for regional security issues in peace and low intensity conflict. Bangkok, Thailand: AMORS.
Hartley, D. S. (1996a). A framework for modeling psycho-social attributes in conflict. In A. Woodcock & D. Davis (Eds.), Analytic approaches to the study of future conflict (p. 300). Clementsport, Canada: The Canadian Peacekeeping Press.
Hartley, D. S. (1996b). Operations other than war: Requirements for analysis tools research report, K/DSRD-2098. Oak Ridge, TN: Lockheed Martin Energy Systems.CrossRef
Hartley, D. S. (2001c). OOTW toolbox specification, DSH-0324. Oak Ridge, TN: Hartley Consulting.
Hartley, D. S. (2005a). Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW): Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) prototype toolbox: FY05 validation strategy & plan. Vienna, VA: Dynamics Research Corp.
Hartley, D. S. (2006b). Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) prototype toolbox: ISSM v4.00 users’ guide. Orlando, FL: Dynamics Research Corporations.
Hartley, D. S. (2006c). Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) prototype toolbox: ISSM v4.00 analysts’ guide. Orlando, FL: Dynamics Research Corporation.
Hartley, D. S. (2010b). Corruption in Afghanistan: Conceptual model. In NDU Corruption Workshop. Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Hartley, D. S. (2010c). VV&A for DIME/PMESII models. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 219–242). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Hartley, D. S. (2012). Validation process for the DEXES II conceptual model. Oak Ridge, TN: Hartley Consulting.
Hartley, D. S. (2015a). DIME/PMESII models. In P. V. Fellman, Y. Bar-Yam, & A. A. Minai (Eds.), Conflict and complexity: Countering terrorism, insurgency, ethnic and regional violence (pp. 111–136). New York: Springer.
Hartley, D. S., Holdsworth, D., & Farrell, C. (2006). OOTW FAST prototype toolbox: Analysis process. Orlando, FL: DRC.
Hartley, D. S., Loebl, A., Rigdon, B., van Leeuwen, B. P., & Harrigan, R. (2004). Costs of lack of commonality: Initial findings from the commonality pathfinder project. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
Hayes, B. C., & Sands, J. I. (1997). Doing windows: Non-traditional military responses to complex emergencies. Washington, DC: CCRP.
HQ DA. (2006a). Counterinsurgency, FM 3-24. Washington, DC.
HQ DA. (2006b). The operations process, FM 5-0.1. HQDA.
Jackson, J. (2010). Population and social dynamics modeling. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (p. 279). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Johnson, N. F. (2013). From particles to people: Social, cultural and behavioral dynamics in insurgency, terrorism and beyond. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 398–407). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Johnson, N. F., Zheng, M., Vorobyeva, Y., Gabriel, A., Qi, H., Velasquez, N., et al. (2016). New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyone. Science, 352(6292), 1459–1463.CrossRef
Jonker, D., & Wright, W. (2010). Visualization and comprehension. In A. Kott & G. Citrenbaum (Eds.), Estimating impact (pp. 285–309). New York: Springer.CrossRef
Kuznar, L. A. (2010). Bridging the micro–macro Gulf in social science research: Military and intelligence applications. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 137–147). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Marlin, B. (2009). Ascertaining validity in the abstract realm of PMESII simulation models: An analysis of the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM). Masters Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.
McCurdy, M. (2016, October 27). Theater engagement analysis (D. S. Hartley, Interviewer).
Ottenberg, M. (2010). Wargaming/gaming. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (p. 278). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Partnow, P. H., & Hartley, D. S. (2010). Using cultural information to model DIME/PMESII effects. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 18–30). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Pierson, B., Barge, W., & Crane, C. (2010). The hairball that stabilized Iraq: Modeling FM 3-24. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 362–372). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Pynadath, D. V., & Marsella, S. C. (2013). Socio-cultural modeling through decision-theoretic agents with theory of mind. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 417–426). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Roland, R. J. (2016, November 6). JTLS (D. S. Hartley, Interviewer)
Senko, R. M. (2005). Flexible Asymmetric Simulation Technologies (FAST) prototype toolbox: FY05 final verification test report. Vienna, VA: Dynamics Research Corp.
Siegel, D. A. (2010). Social network structure and counterinsurgency/counterterrorism: Using theory to limit causal links and aid in strategic planning. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 83–106). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Silverman, B. G. (2010). Is systems engineering the new social science? Or, a multi-resolution architecture for analytic studies of the socio-cultural and cognitive layers of a society. In A. Woodcock, M. Baranick, & A. Sciarretta (Eds.), The human social culture behavior modeling workshop (pp. 107–116). Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Staniec, C., & Hartley, D. S. (1999). OOTW Analysis and Modeling Techniques (OOTWAMT) Workshop Proceedings, January 1997. Alexandria, VA: MORS.
Starr, S., Hartley, D. S., Clemence, R. D., McEver, J. D., Noble, D. F., Signori, D. T., et al. (2007). Verification, validation, and accreditation (VV&A). Vienna, VA: Evidence Based Research.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information (2nd ed.). Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.
Walker, P. B., Anglero, T., & Davidson, I. (2013). Network discovery: Measuring cause and effect behind event and social networks. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 325–334). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Waltz, E., & Lawrence, C. (2009). Conflict Modeling Planning and Outcomes Experimentation (COMPOEX). Human social culture behavior modeling workshop II, June 8–10 2009. Washington, DC: NDU.
Wedgwood, J. E., Ruvinsky, A., & Siedlecki, T. (2013). What lies beneath: Forecast transparency to foster understanding and trust in forecast models. In D. M. Nicholson & D. D. Schmorrow (Eds.), Advances in design for cross-cultural activities, Part II (pp. 64–73). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Woodcock, A. E. (1996). Modeling and analysis of societal dynamics: The Deployable Exercise Support (DEXES) System. In A. Woodcock & D. Davis (Eds.), Analytical approaches to the study of future conflict (pp. 255–279). Clementsport, Canada: The Canadian Peacekeeping Press.
Woodcock, A., Baranick, M., & Sciarretta, A. (Eds.). (2010). The human social culture behavior modeling workshop. Washington, DC: National Defense University.
Metadaten
Titel
Modeling Research
verfasst von
Dean S. Hartley III
Copyright-Jahr
2017
Buch
Unconventional Conflict

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-51934-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-51935-7

Copyright-Jahr: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51935-7_3

Neuer Inhalt

    Bildnachweise