Skip to main content

2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Generalized Probabilistic Modus Ponens

verfasst von : Giuseppe Sanfilippo, Niki Pfeifer, Angelo Gilio

Erschienen in: Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Modus ponens (from A and “if A then C” infer C) is one of the most basic inference rules. The probabilistic modus ponens allows for managing uncertainty by transmitting assigned uncertainties from the premises to the conclusion (i.e., from P(A) and P(C|A) infer P(C)). In this paper, we generalize the probabilistic modus ponens by replacing A by the conditional event A|H. The resulting inference rule involves iterated conditionals (formalized by conditional random quantities) and propagates previsions from the premises to the conclusion. Interestingly, the propagation rules for the lower and the upper bounds on the conclusion of the generalized probabilistic modus ponens coincide with the respective bounds on the conclusion for the (non-nested) probabilistic modus ponens.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Adams, E.W.: A Primer of Probability Logic. CSLI, Stanford (1998)MATH Adams, E.W.: A Primer of Probability Logic. CSLI, Stanford (1998)MATH
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Benferhat, S., Dubois, D., Prade, H.: Nonmonotonic reasoning, conditional objects and possibility theory. Artif. Intell. 92, 259–276 (1997)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Benferhat, S., Dubois, D., Prade, H.: Nonmonotonic reasoning, conditional objects and possibility theory. Artif. Intell. 92, 259–276 (1997)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Lukasiewicz, T., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic logic under coherence: complexity and algorithms. Ann. Math. Artif. Intell. 45(1–2), 35–81 (2005)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Lukasiewicz, T., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic logic under coherence: complexity and algorithms. Ann. Math. Artif. Intell. 45(1–2), 35–81 (2005)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Generalized coherence and connection property of imprecise conditional previsions. In: Proceedings of IPMU 2008, Malaga, Spain, 22–27 June, pp. 907–914 (2008) Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Generalized coherence and connection property of imprecise conditional previsions. In: Proceedings of IPMU 2008, Malaga, Spain, 22–27 June, pp. 907–914 (2008)
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Coherent conditional previsions and proper scoring rules. In: Greco, S., Bouchon-Meunier, B., Coletti, G., Fedrizzi, M., Matarazzo, B., Yager, R.R. (eds.) IPMU 2012. CCIS, vol. 300, pp. 146–156. Springer, Heidelberg (2012). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-31724-8_16 CrossRef Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Coherent conditional previsions and proper scoring rules. In: Greco, S., Bouchon-Meunier, B., Coletti, G., Fedrizzi, M., Matarazzo, B., Yager, R.R. (eds.) IPMU 2012. CCIS, vol. 300, pp. 146–156. Springer, Heidelberg (2012). doi:10.​1007/​978-3-642-31724-8_​16 CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Boole, G.: An Investigation of the Laws of Thought, On Which are Founded the Mathematical Theories of Logic and Probabilities. Walton and Maberly, London (1854)CrossRefMATH Boole, G.: An Investigation of the Laws of Thought, On Which are Founded the Mathematical Theories of Logic and Probabilities. Walton and Maberly, London (1854)CrossRefMATH
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Capotorti, A., Lad, F., Sanfilippo, G.: Reassessing accuracy rates of median decisions. Am. Stat. 61(2), 132–138 (2007)MathSciNetCrossRef Capotorti, A., Lad, F., Sanfilippo, G.: Reassessing accuracy rates of median decisions. Am. Stat. 61(2), 132–138 (2007)MathSciNetCrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Capotorti, A., Vantaggi, B.: Locally strong coherence in inference processes. Ann. Math. Artif. Intell. 35(1), 125–149 (2002)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Capotorti, A., Vantaggi, B.: Locally strong coherence in inference processes. Ann. Math. Artif. Intell. 35(1), 125–149 (2002)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Coletti, G., Scozzafava, R.: Probabilistic Logic in a Coherent Setting. Kluwer, Dordrecht (2002)CrossRefMATH Coletti, G., Scozzafava, R.: Probabilistic Logic in a Coherent Setting. Kluwer, Dordrecht (2002)CrossRefMATH
11.
12.
Zurück zum Zitat de Finetti, B.: Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. In: Kyburg, Jr. H., Smokler, H.E. (eds.) Studies in Subjective Probability, pp. 55–118. Robert E. Krieger Publishing Company, Huntington (1980). Originally published in 1937 de Finetti, B.: Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. In: Kyburg, Jr. H., Smokler, H.E. (eds.) Studies in Subjective Probability, pp. 55–118. Robert E. Krieger Publishing Company, Huntington (1980). Originally published in 1937
13.
Zurück zum Zitat De Morgan, A.: Formal Logic: Or, the Calculus of Inference, Necessary and Probable. Taylor and Walton, London (1847). Reprinted 2002 by Eliborn Classics series De Morgan, A.: Formal Logic: Or, the Calculus of Inference, Necessary and Probable. Taylor and Walton, London (1847). Reprinted 2002 by Eliborn Classics series
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Evans, J.S.B.T., Handley, S.J., Over, D.E.: Conditionals and conditional probability. J. Exp. Psychol.: Learn. Mem. Cogn. 29(2), 321–355 (2003) Evans, J.S.B.T., Handley, S.J., Over, D.E.: Conditionals and conditional probability. J. Exp. Psychol.: Learn. Mem. Cogn. 29(2), 321–355 (2003)
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Gibbard, A.: Two recent theories of conditionals. In: Harper, W.L., Stalnaker, R., Pearce, G. (eds.) Ifs, pp. 221–247. Reidel, Dordrecht (1981) Gibbard, A.: Two recent theories of conditionals. In: Harper, W.L., Stalnaker, R., Pearce, G. (eds.) Ifs, pp. 221–247. Reidel, Dordrecht (1981)
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A.: Generalizing inference rules in a coherence-based probabilistic default reasoning. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 53(3), 413–434 (2012)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Gilio, A.: Generalizing inference rules in a coherence-based probabilistic default reasoning. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 53(3), 413–434 (2012)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Over, D.E., Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Centering and compound conditionals under coherence. In: Ferraro, M., et al. (eds.) Soft Methods for Data Science. AISC, vol. 456, pp. 253–260. Springer, Heidelberg (2017)CrossRef Gilio, A., Over, D.E., Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Centering and compound conditionals under coherence. In: Ferraro, M., et al. (eds.) Soft Methods for Data Science. AISC, vol. 456, pp. 253–260. Springer, Heidelberg (2017)CrossRef
21.
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and iterated conditioning in the setting of coherence. In: van der Gaag, L.C. (ed.) ECSQARU 2013. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 7958, pp. 218–229. Springer, Heidelberg (2013). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-39091-3_19 CrossRef Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and iterated conditioning in the setting of coherence. In: van der Gaag, L.C. (ed.) ECSQARU 2013. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 7958, pp. 218–229. Springer, Heidelberg (2013). doi:10.​1007/​978-3-642-39091-3_​19 CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conjunction, disjunction and iterated conditioning of conditional events. In: Kruse, R., Berthold, M., Moewes, C., Gil, M., Grzegorzewski, P., Hryniewicz, O. (eds.) Synergies of Soft Computing and Statistics for Intelligent Data Analysis. AISC, vol. 190, pp. 399–407. Springer, Berlin (2013)CrossRef Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conjunction, disjunction and iterated conditioning of conditional events. In: Kruse, R., Berthold, M., Moewes, C., Gil, M., Grzegorzewski, P., Hryniewicz, O. (eds.) Synergies of Soft Computing and Statistics for Intelligent Data Analysis. AISC, vol. 190, pp. 399–407. Springer, Berlin (2013)CrossRef
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic entailment in the setting of coherence: the role of quasi conjunction and inclusion relation. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 54(4), 513–525 (2013)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Probabilistic entailment in the setting of coherence: the role of quasi conjunction and inclusion relation. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 54(4), 513–525 (2013)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Quasi conjunction, quasi disjunction, t-norms and t-conorms: probabilistic aspects. Inf. Sci. 245, 146–167 (2013)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Quasi conjunction, quasi disjunction, t-norms and t-conorms: probabilistic aspects. Inf. Sci. 245, 146–167 (2013)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and compounds of conditionals. Stud. Logica 102(4), 709–729 (2014)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G.: Conditional random quantities and compounds of conditionals. Stud. Logica 102(4), 709–729 (2014)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
28.
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Lad, F.: Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: A Mathematical, Philosophical, and Historical Introduction. Wiley, New York (1996)MATH Lad, F.: Operational Subjective Statistical Methods: A Mathematical, Philosophical, and Historical Introduction. Wiley, New York (1996)MATH
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Lambert, J.H.: Neues Organon oder Gedanken über die Erforschung und Bezeichnung des Wahren und dessen Unterscheidung vom Irrthum und Schein. Wendler, Leipzig (1764) Lambert, J.H.: Neues Organon oder Gedanken über die Erforschung und Bezeichnung des Wahren und dessen Unterscheidung vom Irrthum und Schein. Wendler, Leipzig (1764)
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Lewis, D.: Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philos. Rev. 85, 297–315 (1976)CrossRef Lewis, D.: Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philos. Rev. 85, 297–315 (1976)CrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat McGee, V.: Conditional probabilities and compounds of conditionals. Philos. Rev. 98(4), 485–541 (1989)CrossRef McGee, V.: Conditional probabilities and compounds of conditionals. Philos. Rev. 98(4), 485–541 (1989)CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Petturiti, D., Vantaggi, B.: Envelopes of conditional probabilities extending a strategy and a prior probability. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 81, 160–182 (2017)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Petturiti, D., Vantaggi, B.: Envelopes of conditional probabilities extending a strategy and a prior probability. Int. J. Approximate Reasoning 81, 160–182 (2017)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Pfeifer, N.: The new psychology of reasoning: a mental probability logical perspective. Thinking Reasoning 19(3–4), 329–345 (2013)CrossRef Pfeifer, N.: The new psychology of reasoning: a mental probability logical perspective. Thinking Reasoning 19(3–4), 329–345 (2013)CrossRef
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Pfeifer, N., Kleiter, G.D.: Inference in conditional probability logic. Kybernetika 42, 391–404 (2006)MathSciNetMATH Pfeifer, N., Kleiter, G.D.: Inference in conditional probability logic. Kybernetika 42, 391–404 (2006)MathSciNetMATH
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Pfeifer, N., Kleiter, G.D.: Framing human inference by coherence based probability logic. J. Appl. Logic 7(2), 206–217 (2009)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH Pfeifer, N., Kleiter, G.D.: Framing human inference by coherence based probability logic. J. Appl. Logic 7(2), 206–217 (2009)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Square of opposition under coherence. In: Ferraro, M., et al. (eds.) Soft Methods for Data Science. AISC, vol. 456, pp. 407–414. Springer, Berlin (2017)CrossRef Pfeifer, N., Sanfilippo, G.: Square of opposition under coherence. In: Ferraro, M., et al. (eds.) Soft Methods for Data Science. AISC, vol. 456, pp. 407–414. Springer, Berlin (2017)CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Generalized Probabilistic Modus Ponens
verfasst von
Giuseppe Sanfilippo
Niki Pfeifer
Angelo Gilio
Copyright-Jahr
2017
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61581-3_43