Abstract
Populations of many highly developed countries face the problem of an ageing society, i.e., the share of senior citizens in the total population increases. A common measure for quantifying this effect is the old-age dependency ratio (ODR) which gives the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and over to the number of people between ages 20 and 64.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Babel, B./ Bomsdorf, E./ Schmidt, R.(2007a): Forecasting German Mortality via Panel Data Procedures. Retrievable from http://www.springerlink.com/content/1432-1475/. Forthcoming in the Journal of Population Economics.
Babel, B./ Bomsdorf, E./ Schmidt, R. (2007b): Future Life Expectancy in Australia, Europe, Japan and North America. Journal of Population Research 24: 119–131.
Babel, B./ Bomsdorf, E./ Kahlenberg, J. (2008): Future mortality improvements in the G7 countries. Life and Pensions 2/2008: 31–37.
Bomsdorf, E. (2004): Life expectancy in Germany until 2050. Experimental Gerontology 39:159–163.
Bomsdorf, E./ Babel, B. (2005): Wie viel Fertilität und Migration braucht Deutschland? Wirtschaftsdienst 85: 387–394.
Bomsdorf, E./ Babel, B. (2007): Annahmenflexible Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen und die 11. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Wirtschaft und Statistik 9/2007: 905–912.
Bomsdorf, E./ Babel, B./ Schmidt, R. (2008): Zur Entwicklung der Bevölkerung, der Anzahl der Schüler, Studienanfänger und der Pflegebedürftigen, Stochastische Modellrechnungen für Deutschland bis 2050. To German Review of Social Policy 57: 125–132.
Bomsdorf, E./ Trimborn, M. (1992): Sterbetafel 2000. Modellrechnungen der Sterbetafel. Zeitschrift für die gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft 81: 457–485.
Bongaarts, J. (2004): Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions. Population and Development Review 30: 1–23.
Booth, H./ Tickle, L./ Smith, L. (2005): Evaluation of the Variants of the Lee-Carter Method of Forecasting Mortality: a Multi-Country Comparison. New Zealand Population Review 31: 13–34.
German Federal Statistical Office (2006): Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2050. Wiesbaden.
German Institute of Actuaries (2004): Herleitung der DAV-Sterbetafel 2004R für Rentenversicherungen. Internal Report.
Goldstein, J.R./ Wachter, K.W. (2006): Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags. Population Studies 60: 257–269.
Helberger, C./ Rathjen, D. (1998): Fehlerhafte Erwartungen zur Lebenserwartung in kapitalgedeckten und umlagefinanzierten Alterssicherungen. In: Galler, H.P./ Wagner, G. (eds): Empirische Forschung und wirtschaftspolitische Beratung, Festschrift für Hans-Jürgen Krupp zum 65. Geburtstag. Frankfurt, New York: 398–419.
Janssen, F./ Kunst, A. (2007): The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality. Population Studies 61: 315–326.
Lee, R.D./ Carter, L.R. (1992): Modeling and Forecasting US Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 659–671.
Lee, R.D./ Tuljapurkar, S. (2000): Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations. In: Auerbach, A./ Lee, R.D. (eds.): Demography and Fiscal Policy. Cambridge University Press: 7–57.
Leslie, P.H. (1945): On the Use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics. Biometrika 33: 183–212.
Pitacco, E. (2004): Survival Models in a Dynamic Context: a Survey. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 35: 279–298.
Thatcher, A.R./ Kannisto, V./ Vaupel, J.W. (1998): The Force of Mortality at Ages 80–120. Monographs on Population Aging 5.
Tuljapurkar, S./ Li, N./ Boe, C. (2000): A Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline in the G7 Countries. Nature 405: 789–792.
US Census Bureau (2000): Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100. Population Division Working Paper No. 38.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften | Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bomsdorf, E., Babel, B., Kahlenberg, J. (2010). Care Need Projections for Germany until 2050. In: Doblhammer, G., Scholz, R. (eds) Ageing, Care Need and Quality of Life. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92335-2_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92335-2_2
Publisher Name: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften
Print ISBN: 978-3-531-16626-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-531-92335-2
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)