Abstract
The link between elevated temperatures and coral bleaching in recent decades leads to speculation that anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events. A number of recent studies use the output of global climate models to estimate the effects of ocean warming on future occurrences of coral bleaching. These studies generally conclude that mass coral bleaching could become a biannual event by the 2020s or 2030s at many of the world’s coral reefs, without any adaptation by corals and their symbionts. The details of such future projections depend on critical issues like model resolution and scenario development. This chapter includes an introduction to global climate modelling, a review of the past efforts to simulate the effects of climate change on coral bleaching, a case study on the Great Barrier Reef, and a discussion of future research needs.
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Donner, S.D., Heron, S.F., Skirving, W.J. (2009). Future Scenarios: a Review of Modelling Efforts to Predict the Future of Coral Reefs in an Era of Climate Change. In: van Oppen, M.J.H., Lough, J.M. (eds) Coral Bleaching. Ecological Studies, vol 205. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69775-6_10
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