Abstract
To understand the basic nature of the Japanese society in the 20th century, it would be most useful to study the long-run trends of the Japanese population in Fig. 1.1. In the 20th century, the population was almost tripled, from about 44 million in 1900 to about 127 million in 2000. However, such a rapid increase will be almost completely offset by the decline in the 21st century. It is estimated that the population will be less than 60 million in 2100.
The more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt (1858–1919) served as the 26th President of the U.S. from 1901 to 1909. After having served as the President, he formed the “Progressive Party” and advocated the adoption of social insurance in the U.S., which had already been adopted by many European countries, to protect workers and prevent the spread of socialism. The party won 27% of the popular vote, the highest third-party vote in American history. Theodore Roosevelt’s vision was realized by his cousin, Franklin Roosevelt, in 1935 when the Social Security Act was passed by the Congress as a part of the “New Deal” policies against the Great Depression.
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Notes
- 1.
The population estimation referred to in this book is the one estimated in 2016 (the middle case for fertility and mortality) by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, NIPSSR hereafter.
- 2.
The data from 1999 represent real GNI (Gross National Income), which is equivalent to the real GNP in the old National Account System.
- 3.
See, for example, Flath (2000) for a good introduction to the development of Japanese economy.
- 4.
In Fig. 1.2, the slope of the curve labelled as “log GNP” represents the economic growth rate. It is kinked around 1973, which implies that the economic growth rate has fallen since then.
- 5.
The data in Fig. 1.3 only accounts for the national and local public debts.
- 6.
These forecasts have been used to determine the contribution rates for the “pay-as-you-go” type public pension in Japan. The optimistic forecasts played an important role in delaying the increase in the pension contribution rate. In 2004, the Japanese government recognized that the public pension fund was heavily indebted, and thus made a big pension reform.
- 7.
Another reason is the increase in late marriages. The average age of the first marriage of Japanese women was 24.3 in 1973 and is 29.4 in 2015.
- 8.
Miyajima (1992) is an important work in which social security policies are discussed based on the solid analysis of mutual aid within families and companies.
- 9.
See, for example, Traphagan and Knight (2003) for more analyses and discussion of Japanese families under demographic changes.
- 10.
The value in each parenthesis is t-value and \(\bar{R}^2\) is the adjusted coefficient of determination.
- 11.
Japanese local governments have regarded neighborhood associations as useful entities for implementing their policies. Even to this day in Tokyo, large subsidies are given to neighborhood associations.
- 12.
In areas where neighborhood associations are not working well, such as urban areas, the establishment and activities of the voluntary associations will have positive effects on the communities, because they are playing a role in sustaining the activities that neighborhood associations traditionally conducted.
- 13.
The inflow of the young people increased the attractiveness of the urban areas and accelerated the inflow of the young people to urban areas, which created further regional disparities (c.f. Sect. 10.2.1).
- 14.
- 15.
It is well known that estimating the income inequality faces many difficulties due to the problems of data acquisition (c.f. Terasaki 1993). Although the values are different among various estimates, the pattern of changes in income inequality indicated in each estimate seems to be consistent.
- 16.
The property tax was imposed for six years from 1946 to 1951 and the wealth tax was imposed by the Shoup recommendation for three years from 1950 to 1952. The property tax was an individual tax on assets with a low tax exemption level and the highest tax rate set at 90%. It naturally had a very high equalization effect on the assets and thus on income. On the other hand, the wealth tax was an individual tax on net wealth. Contrary to the property tax, the tax exemption level is high and the highest tax rate is 3%; thus, the redistribution effect was considered to be limited.
- 17.
Economic Planning Agency (1999) and Ohtake (2005) show that the trend continued in the 1990s. Concerning the international comparison of the income inequality, some researchers (e.g., Tachibanaki 1999, 2005) claim that the Japanese society is one of the most unequal societies while others (e.g., Economic Planning Agency 1999) suggest that Japan’s inequality is average. The comparison of the degree of inequality is not easy due to the data available in each country, and thus should be done carefully.
- 18.
In this period, there were a series of tax reforms, such as abolition of the property and wealth taxes, and reduction in the inheritance tax and the asset income tax (e.g., Sato and Miyajima 1990). Especially, after the fundamental tax reform in 1987, there was a big decrease in the index.
- 19.
The households with elderly people under the public assistance program comprise 43% of the total households.
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Yamashige, S. (2017). Transformation of the Japanese Society in the 20th Century. In: Economic Analysis of Families and Society. Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, vol 16. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55909-2_1
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