Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling with NEWDSS: Producing State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections for New South Wales

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Part of the book series: Understanding Population Trends and Processes ((UPTA,volume 4))

Abstract

State governments in Australia require state, regional and local area population projections for a variety of planning purposes. Used either directly or as inputs to other models, projections inform regional planning strategies, health service planning, transport modelling, educational enrolment projections, water supply infrastructure plans, household and dwelling projections, and assessments of the state’s future fiscal position to name a few examples. In New South Wales responsibility for producing the official population projections rests with the Department of Planning’s Demography Unit. Existing off-the-shelf projection software is usually too basic or inflexible for the complex projection needs of state governments, so tailor-made projection systems are normally constructed. This chapter describes the modelling system, the New South Wales Demographic Simulation System (NEWDSS), created for and used by the Demography Unit to produce the New South Wales 2008 release set of projections (NSW Department of Planning, 2008).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Andelin, J., & Simpson, L. (2005). POPGROUP population estimation and forecasting system reference manual. Manchester: Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, University of Manchester.

    Google Scholar 

  • Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2008). Population projections, Australia: 2006 to 2101 (Catalogue No. 3222.0). Canberra: ABS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baum, S., Mitchell, W., & Han, J. (2008). Socio-economic performance across Australia’s non-metropolitan functional economic regions. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 14(3), 215–249.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bell, M., Dean, C., & Blake, M. (2000). A model for forecasting the location of fringe urbanisation with GIS and 3D visualization. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 24(6), 559–581.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: A review of methods (Working Paper no. 3). Canberra: Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, The Australian National University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brierley, M. J., Forster, J. J., McDonald, J., & Smith, P. W. F. (2008). Bayesian estimation of migration flows. In J. Raymer & F. Willekens (Eds.), International migration in Europe: Data, models and estimates (pp. 149–174). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brunborg, H., & Cappelen, A. (2009, September 27–October 2). An econometric model for forecasting migration to Norway. Paper prepared for the IUSSP International Population Conference, Marrakech.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cameron, M. P., & Poot, J. (2009). Sub-national stochastic population projections with highly volatile international migration: The case of New Zealand. PAPER prepared for the IUSSP International population conference, Marrakech.

    Google Scholar 

  • Courgeau, D. (1979). Migrants and migrations. Population: Selected Papers, 3, 1–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Beer, J. (2008). Forecasting international migration: Time series projections vs argument-based forecasts. In J. Raymer & F. Willekens (Eds.), International migration in Europe: Data, models and estimates (pp. 283–306). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Beer, J., & Deerenberg, I. (2007). An explanatory model for projecting regional fertility differences in the Netherlands. Population Research and Policy Review, 26, 511–528.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Freestone, R., Murphy, P., & Jenner, A. (2003). The functions of Australian towns, revisited. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 94(2), 188–204.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Isserman, A. M. (1993). The right people, the right rates: Making population estimates and forecasts with an interregional cohort-component model. Journal of the American Planning Association, 59(1), 45–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keilman, N., Pham, D. Q., & Hetland, A. (2002). Why population forecasts should be probabilistic – Illustrated by the case of Norway. Demographic Research, 6(15). (pp. 409–454). http://www.demographic-research.org

    Google Scholar 

  • Knudsen, C., McNown, R., & Rogers, A. (1993). Forecasting fertility: An application of time series methods to parameterised model schedules. Social Science Research, 22, 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewska, D., & Kupiszewski, M. (2005). A revision of the traditional multiregional model to better capture international migration: The MULTIPOLES model and its application (Working Paper 10/2005) Warsaw: Central European Forum for Migration Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewki, M., & Kupiszewska, D. (2008). International migration component in population dynamics models. In J. Raymer & F. Willekens (Eds.), International migration in Europe: Data, models and estimates (pp. 309–327). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewski, M., & Kupiszewska, D. (2003). Internal migration component in subnational population projections in member states of the European Union (Working Paper 2/2003). Warsaw: Central European Forum for Migration Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, N., & Lee, R. (2005). Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method. Demography, 42(3), 575–594.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W. (2009). Toward a systematic, argument-based approach to defining assumptions for population projections (Interim Report IR-09-037). Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Masser, I. (1976). The design of spatial systems for internal migration analysis. Regional Studies, 10(1), 39–52.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McNown, R., & Rogers, A. (1989). Forecasting mortality: A parameterised time series approach. Demography, 26(4), 645–660.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NSW Department of Planning. (2008). New South Wales state and regional population projections, 2006–2036: 2008 release. Sydney: NSW Department of Planning.

    Google Scholar 

  • NSW Department of Planning. (2009). MDP 2007/08 report. Sydney: Department of Planning.

    Google Scholar 

  • Percival, R. (2007). APPSIM – Software selection and data structures (Working Paper no. 3). Canberra: National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra. Accessed on December 7, 2009, from http://www.canberra.edu.au/centres/natsem/publications

  • Raymer, J. (2007). The estimation of international migration flows: A general technique focused on the origin-destination association structure. Environment and Planning A, 39, 985–995.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raymer, J. (2008). Obtaining an overall picture of population movement in the European Union. In J. Raymer & F. Willekens (Eds.), International migration in Europe: Data, models and estimates (pp. 209–234). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raymer, J., Bonaguidi, A., & Valentini, A. (2006). Describing and projecting the age and spatial structures of interregional migration in Italy. Population, Space and Place, 12, 371–388.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1977). The measurement of migration, from census data and other sources. Environment and Planning A, 9, 247–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1981). Accounts based models for multiregional population analysis: Methods, program and users’ manual (Working Paper 295/Computer Manual 13). Leeds: School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1984). Spatial population analysis using movement data and accounting methods: Theory, models, the ‘MOVE’ program and examples (Working Paper 404). Leeds: School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1985). Does it really matter which migration data you use in a population model? In G. A. van der Knapp & P. E. White (Eds.), Contemporary studies of migration (pp. 55–77). Norwich: GeoBooks.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1986). Choices in the construction of regional population projections. In R. Woods & P. Rees (Eds.), Population structures and models: Developments in spatial demography (pp. 126–159). London: Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1994). Key issues in subnational projection models (Working Paper 94/8). Leeds: School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1996, September). In-round-out: The organisation of information in population projections. Paper prepared for the First International Geocomputation Conference, Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (1997). Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations. Journal of the Australian Population Association, 14(2), 145–166.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P. (2002). New models for projecting UK populations by ethnic group at national and subnational scales. In J. Haskey (Ed.), Population projections by ethnic group: A feasibility study (pp. 27–42). London: Office for National Statistics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P., & Willekens, F. (1986). Data and accounts. In A. Rogers & F. J. Willekens (Eds.), Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study (pp. 19–58). Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P., & Wilson, A. G. (1977). Spatial population analysis. London: Edward Arnold.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P., & Woods, R. (1986). Demographic estimation: Problems, methods and examples. In R. Woods & P. Rees (Eds.), Populations structures and models (pp. 301–343). London: Allen and Unwin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1976). Shrinking large-scale population-projection models by aggregation and decomposition. Environment and Planning A, 8, 515–541.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1990). Requiem for the net migrant. Geographical Analysis, 22, 283–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, A. (1995). Multiregional demography: Principles, methods and extensions. Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R. (1988). Modeling multigroup populations. New York: Plenum Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, C. (2008). The national population projections expert advisory group: Results from a questionnaire about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Population Trends, 134, 42–53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shryock, H. S., Siegel, J. S. and associates (1976). The methods and materials of demography: Condensed edition by Stockwell, E. F. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simpson, L. (2004). Integrating estimates within population forecasts. Applied Population and Policy, 1(2), 89–104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. A. (2001). State and local population projections: Methodology and analysis. New York: Kluwer Academic.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stimson, R. J., Robson, A., & Shyy, T. (2009). Modeling regional endogenous growth: An application to the non-metropolitan regions of Australia. Annals of Regional Science, 43, 379–398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sweeney, S. H., & Konty, K. J. (2002). Population forecasting with nonstationary multiregional growth matrices. Geographical Analysis, 34(4), 289–311.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Imhoff, E. (1990). The exponential multidimensional demographic projection model. Mathematical Population Studies, 2(3), 171–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Imhoff, E., & Post, W. (1998). Microsimulation methods for population projection. Population: An English Selection, 10(1), 97–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Imhoff, E., van der Gaag, N., van Wissen, L., & Rees, P. (1997). The selection of internal migration models for European regions. International Journal of Population Geography, 3, 137–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willekens, F. (1999). Modeling approaches to the indirect estimation of migration flows: From entropy to EM. Mathematical Population Studies, 7(3), 239–278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willekens, F. (2005). Biographic forecasting: Bridging the micro-macro gap in population forecasting. New Zealand Population Review, 31(1), 77–124.

    Google Scholar 

  • Willekens, F., & Rogers, A. (1978). Spatial population analysis: Methods and computer programs (Research report RR-78-18). Laxenburg: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T., & Bell, M. (2004). Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections. Journal of Population Research, 21(2), 127–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, T., & Bell, M. (2007). Probabilistic regional population forecasts: The example of Queensland, Australia. Geographical Analysis, 39, 1–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wohland, P., Rees, P., Norman, P., & Boden, P. (2010). What happens when international migrants settle? A projection of the UK’s ethnic group populations – model, software, components and results (Working Paper). Leeds: School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, Y., & Wang, Z. (no date). ProFamy – Software for household forecasting: User’s guide. Accessed on November 4, 2009, from http://www.sabresys.com/whitepapers/report_no_1.pdf

Download references

Acknowledgement

The author gratefully acknowledges the New South Wales Department of Planning for granting permission to include details of the 2008 release population projections for New South Wales.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Queensland, QLD, Australia

    Tom Wilson

Authors
  1. Tom Wilson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tom Wilson .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Fac. Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    John Stillwell

  2. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    Martin Clarke

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Wilson, T. (2011). Modelling with NEWDSS: Producing State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections for New South Wales. In: Stillwell, J., Clarke, M. (eds) Population Dynamics and Projection Methods. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8930-4_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation