Abstract
This literature overview aims to review the relationship between climate change and migration, with a special focus on Latin America and the Caribbean. After a brief history of the debate raised by the relationship between the environment and migration, we identify the main environmental consequences of climate change. In particular, we address the aspects related to tropical storms and hurricanes, floods, droughts, rising sea levels, and, melting glaciers. The paper then proceeds mainly by historical analogy: a summary of the past consequences for migration of these environmental degradations allows us to identify the most important migration issues related to climate change.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
The present chapter builds partly on the observations made in a previous article by the same authors on Central America and South America Kaenzig and Piguet (2011). It includes an updated look at the region and the analysis is extended to include the Caribbean.
- 2.
The generic term “tropical cyclone” includes hurricanes (in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific), typhoons (in the western Pacific), cyclones (in the southern Pacific and the Indian Ocean), tropical storms, etc. For this chapter, in the particular case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the term “tropical storms and hurricanes” is used.
- 3.
Research on the stakes for migration related to issues of deforestation and of development projects has focused primarily on the area of the Amazon Basin, with case studies on Brazil Capellini et~al. (2011), Rodrigues et~al. (2009), Fearnside (2008), and on Ecuador Barbieri et~al. (2008), Carr (2009). in particular.
- 4.
In an El Niño phase, the surface water temperature in the Pacific Ocean increases considerably, modifying the pressure system and causing major changes in precipitation patterns. The coastlines of South America are particularly exposed to the changes that result from the cycles of El Niño Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007).
- 5.
In the Amazon Basin, as well as in Central America, there has been an observable increase in changes to the patterns of the seasons. This is seen most obviously in the later start to the rainy season, which therefore also means a lengthening of the dry seasons Aguilar et~al. (2005), Marengo et~al. (2011).
- 6.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, it has not been possible to establish any long-term tendency in temperature averages. Nevertheless, one can see a significant trend toward warming in certain areas (Amazon Basin and the north-western part of South America) and, in certain rare cases, toward cooling (Chile) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007).
- 7.
- 8.
The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States.
- 9.
For a methodological discussion, cf. Piguet (2010).
- 10.
The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) is an international catastrophe database used as a classification system (see www.emdat.be/classification). Floods are listed as hydrological catastrophes, cyclones as meteorological catastrophes, droughts as climatological catastrophes and earthquakes as geophysical catastrophes.
- 11.
See www.each-for.eu
- 12.
The study considers floods, cyclones, earthquakes and soil erosion.
- 13.
Earthquakes are not a result of climate warming, but some of the consequences of earthquakes are similar to the consequences of hurricanes and other climate-related catastrophes and some analogies can therefore be drawn with them.
- 14.
Halliday defines agricultural misfortunes as “agricultural conditions that caused livestock loss and/or harvest loss” Halliday (2006).
- 15.
At the end of 2011, half of a million people were still staying in temporary camps. The population that remains in the camps is the most vulnerable. When the camps were established, 60 % of their residents were homeowners (of their previous residence) and 40 % were not. By the end of 2011, the non-homeowners made up 80 % of the population that were still living in the camps (IOM 2012).
- 16.
Capellini et~al. (2011), who are critical of the determinist point of view, point out that drought episodes in north-eastern Brazil are exacerbated, maybe sometimes even caused, by the concentration of property and by the fact that water resources are managed by powerful landowners.
- 17.
It is also worth noting that these same authors developed an original approach for the purpose of estimating the impact of climate change on migration using a comprehensive economic model based on the warming scenarios of IPCC and applied to north-eastern Brazil. Their very interesting findings are, however, still exploratory. They seem to indicate a weak impact of climate change on migration, with, however, an increase in migration beginning in the 2030s. Barbieri et~al. (2010), Barbieri and Confalonieri (2011).
- 18.
Gray refers to these changes as “unusual harvests” (Gray 2009).
- 19.
The study examines two regions in Bolivia: one in the Andes, in the northern zone of the Potosi Department, made up of the provinces of Ibañez, Bustillo, Bilbao, Charcas and Chayanta, and one on lower ground, in the municipality of San Julían, north-east of Santa Cruz, in the Santa Cruz Department. For the purposes of this chapter, the first of these two cases is of particular interest because in the study of the second, the environmental component is only weakly represented.
- 20.
- 21.
In order to explain this inverted relationship, the authors refer to the work of Findley (1994) and her case study on Mali, where she shows that long-distance migration tends to decrease during periods of drought. When experiencing water shortages, the affected households cannot afford the investment required for a long-distance migration because basic needs, such as securing a food supply, must be met first.
- 22.
- 23.
One explanation for this large degree of variation has to do with the data sources used; although all of the studies use the same population data, no two use the same data for altitude. According to Farr and Kobrick (2000), determining the areas that are at or below 10 m above sea level is still very difficult, especially in regions with steep coasts.
- 24.
- 25.
Based on the data given in McGranahan et~al. (2007).
- 26.
The three States are the Maldives (300,000 inhabitants; maximum altitude of 2 m), Tuvalu (10,000 inhabitants; maximum altitude of 2 m) and the Marshall Islands (63,000 inhabitants; maximum altitude of 6 m). Piguet (2012).
Bibliography
Adger, W. N. (2006). Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268–281.
Aguilar, E., Peterson, T. C., Obando, P. R., Frutos, R., Retana, J. A., Solera, M., Soley, J., García, I. G., Araujo, R. M., Santos, A. R., Valle, V. E., Brunet, M., Aguilar, L., Álvarez, L., Bautista, M., Castañón, C., Herrera, L., Ruano, E., Sinay, J. J., Sánchez, E., Oviedo, G. I. H., Obed, F., Salgado, J. E., Vázquez, J. L., Baca, M., Gutiérrez, M., Centella, C., Espinosa, J., Martínez, D., Olmedo, B., Espinoza, C. E. O., Núñez, R., Haylock, M., Benavides, H., & Mayorga, R. (2005). Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961–2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D23107.
Alscher, S. (2011). Environmental degradation and migration on Hispaniola Island. International Migration, 4, 16–18.
Alscher, S., & Faist, T. (2008). Environmental factors in Mexican migration: The cases of Chiapas and Tlaxcala.
Alvarez Gila, O., López de Maturana Diéguez, V., & Ugalde Zaratiegui, A. (2008). Ecuador – Case study report. Each for case study report. Bonn: United Nations University EHS.
André, M. (2011). The earthquake in Chile. In F. Gemenne, P. Brücker, & J. Glaser (Eds.), The state of environmental migration 2010 (pp. 49–56). Paris: IDDRI Sciences Po and IOM (International Organization for Migration).
Anthoff, D., Nicholls, P., Tol, R. S., & Vafeidis, A. (2006). Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level: A sensitivity analysis. Working Paper. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
Auffhammer, M., & Vincent, J. R. (2012, July). Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(30), 11973.
Balderrama Mariscal, C., Tassi, N., Rubena Miranda, A., Aramayo Caned, L., & Cazorla, I. (2011). Rural migration in Bolivia: The impact of climate change, economic crisis and state policy (International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Human Settlements Working Paper, 45). London: IIED.
Barbieri, A. F., & Confalonieri, U. E. C. (2011). Climate change, migration and health: Exploring potential scenarios of population vulnerability in Brazil. In E. Piguet, A. Pécoud, & P. de Guchteneire (Eds.), Migration and climate change (pp. 49–73). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Barbieri, A., Carr, D. L., & Bilsborrow, R. E. (2008). Out-migration of second-generation frontier colonists from the Ecuadorian Amazon. Population Research and Policy review.
Barbieri, A., Domingues, E., Queiroz, B., Ruiz, R., Rigotti, J., Carvalho, J., & Resende, M. (2010). Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: Scenarios for 2025–2050. Population and Environment, 31, 344–370.
Barker, D. (1989). Environmental migrants. Draft Paper for World Resources 1990–1991.
Belcher, J. C., & Bates, F. L. (1983). Aftermath of natural disasters: Coping through residential mobility. Demography, 7, 118–128.
Berringer, A. C. S. (2012). Climate change and emigration: Comparing “sinking islands” and Jamaica. Miradas en movimiento, Special Volume Naturally Immigrants, pp. 106–120.
Bilsborrow, R. E. (1992). Rural poverty, migration, and environment in developing countries: Three case studies (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1017). Washington, DC: World Bank.
Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R. (2011). Climate change: Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449.
Capellini, N., Castro, M. C., & Gutjahr, E. (2011). Patterns of environmental migration in Brazil: Three case studies. In F. Gemenne, P. Brücker, & J. Glaser (Eds.), The state of environmental migration 2010 (pp. 87–110). Paris: IDDRI Sciences Po and IOM (International Organization for Migration).
Carey, M. (2010). In the shadow of melting glaciers. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Carr, D. (2009). Population and deforestation: Why rural migration matters. Progress in Human Geography, 33, 355–378.
Carvajal, L., & Pereira, I. (2008, October 9–11). Evidence on the link between migration, climate disasters, and human development. Paper presented at the international conference on environment, forced migration and social vulnerability, Bonn.
Catanese, A. (1999). Haitians – Migration and diaspora. Boulder: Westview Press.
Cohen, I. S., Spring, Ú. O., Padilla, G. D., Paredes, J. C., Inzunza Ibarra, M. A., López, R. L., & Díaz, J. V. (2012). Forced migration, climate change, mitigation and adaptive policies in Mexico: Some functional relationships. International Migration, 51(4), 1–20.
Confalonieri, U. (2003). Variabilidade climática, vulnerabilidade social e saúde no. Brasil. Terra Livre, I, 193–204.
Coudrain, A., Francou, B., & Kundzewicz, Z. (2005). Glacier shrinkage in the Andes and consequences for water resources. Hydrological Sciences, 50, 925–932.
Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Maisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2007). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries – A comparative analysis (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, 51).
Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2009). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. Climatic Change, 93, 379–388.
de Janvry, A., Sadoulet, E., Davis, B., Seidel, K., & Winters, P. (1997). Determinants of Mexico-U.S. migration: The role of household assets and environmental factors (Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series N° 853). Berkeley: California Agricultural Experiment Station, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics.
Deprez, A. (2010). Climate migration in Latin America: A future “Flood of Refugees” to the North? COHA (Council On Hemispheric Affairs).
Durand, J., & Massey, D. S. (2010). New world orders: Continuities and changes in Latin American migration. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 630, 20–52.
Eakin, H. (2005). Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from Central Mexico. World Development, 33, 1932–1938.
EMDAT. (2012). The emergency events database. http://www.emdat.be/
Escobar, H., Sovilla, B., & Arévalo, L. A. (2006). Pobreza, desastres naturales y migración en la regiones Istmo-Costa, Sierra y Soconusco de Chiapas. Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana.
Farr, T. G., & Kobrick, M. (2000). Shuttle radar topography mission produces a wealth of data. Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 81, 583–585.
Fearnside, P. (2008). The roles and movements of actors in the deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia. Ecology and Society, 13, 23.
Feng, S., Krueger, A. B., & Oppenheimer, M. (2010). Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/10/1202049109.full.pdf+html. Last accessed.
Findley, S. E. (1994). Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-85 drought. International Migration Review, 28, 539–553.
Franke, C. R., Ziller, M., Staubach, C., & Latif, M. (2002). Impact of the El Niño: Southern oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 8, 914–917.
Gosine, A. (1996). Roots of flight: Environmental refugees in Latin America – A response to analysis by Homer-Dixon. Refuge, 15, 27–32.
Gray, C. L. (2009). Environment, land, and rural out-migration in the Southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development, 37, 457–468.
Gütermann, N., & Schneider, E. (2011). The earthquake in Haïti. In F. Gemenne, P. Brücker, & J. Glaser (Eds.), The state of environmental migration 2010 (pp. 39–48). Paris: IDDRI Sciences Po and IOM (International Organization for Migration).
Halliday, T. J. (2006). Migration, risk and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54, 893–925.
Hanson, G. H., & McIntosh, C. (2009). The demography of Mexican migration to the US. American Economic Review, 99, 22–27.
Hoffmann, D. (2008). Consecuencias Cel Retroceso Glaciar En La Cordillera Boliviana. Pirineos, 163, 77–84.
Inter-American Institute (IAI). (2010). Melting the ice – Receding glaciers in the American Cordillera (Communiqué 2). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate change 2007 – IPCC fourth assessment report on scientific aspects of climate change for researchers, students, and policymakers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2011). World migration report 2010. Geneva: IOM.
International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2012). Haiti: From emergency to sustainable recovery (IOM Haiti Two-Year Report (2010–2011), p. 56). Port-au-Prince: International Organization for Migration Haiti.
IPCC. (2012). Summary for policymakers. In C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, G.-K. P. K. J. Mach, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, & P. M. Midgley (Eds.), Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1–19). Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press.
Irianni, M., García, M. C., Velázquez, G. A., Fernández Equiza, A. M., & Alvarez, G. O. (2008). Argentina case study report. Each for case study report. Bonn: United Nations University EHS.
Jacobson, J. (1988) Environmental refugees: A yardstick for habitability. Worldwatch Paper 86). Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute.
Jungehülsing, J. (2010). Las que se van, las que se quedan: reacciones frente al cambio climático Un estudio de caso sobre migración y género en Chiapas. (H. B. Stiftung, Ed.). México.
Kaenzig, R. (2011). Bolivian Andes: From climate change to human displacements? In A. J. E. Stötter, & E. Veulliet (Eds.), Managing Alpine Future II: “Inspire and drive sustainable mountain regions”. Proceedings of the Innsbruck conference November 21–23, 2011 (pp. 47–57). Wien: Austrian Academy of Sciences.
Kaenzig, R., & Piguet, E. (2011). Migrations et changement climatique en Amérique Latine: quels enjeux ? Vertigo – Revue Electronique en Sciences de l’Environnement, 11.
Kahn, A. S., & Campus, R. T. (1992). Effects of drought on agricultural sector of Northeast Brazil. In Presented at ICID. Fortaleza, Brazil.
Kniveton, D., Schmidt-Verkerk, K., Smith, C., & Black, R. (2008). Climate change and migration: Improving methodologies to estimate flows. Geneva: IOM (International Organization for Migration).
Leighton, M. (2006). Desertification and migration. In P. M. Johnson, K. Mayrand, & M. Paquin (Eds.), Governing global desertification (pp. 43–58). London: Ashgate.
Leighton, M. (2011). Drought, desertification and migration: Past experiences, predicted impacts and human rights issues. In E. Piguet, A. Pécoud, & P. de Gutcheneire (Eds.), Migration and climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Leighton-Schwartz, M. L., & Notini, J. (1995). Preliminary report on desertification and migration case studies and evaluation. In J. Puigdefábrigas & T. Mendizábal (Eds.), Desertification and migrations (pp. 69–113). Logroño: Geoforma Ediciones.
MacGranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization, 19, 17–37.
Magrin, G., Gay García, C., Cruz Choque, D., Giménez, J. C., Moreno, A. R., Nagy, G. J., Nobre, C., & Villamizar, A. (2007). Latin America. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. Van der Linden, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (pp. 581–615). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Marengo, J. A., Tomasella, J., Alves, L. M., Soares, W. R., & Rodriguez, D. A. (2011). The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L12703.
McDowell, J. Z., & Hess, J. J. (2012). Accessing adaptation: Multiple stressors on livelihoods in the Bolivian highlands under a changing climate. Global Environmental Change, 22, 342–352.
Meze-Hausken, E. (2004). Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 5, 379–406.
Myers, N. (1993). Ultimate security: The environmental basis of political stability. New York: W. W. Nortan.
Nagy, G. J., Caffera, R. M., Aparicio, M., Barrenechea, P., Bidegain, M., Jimenez, J. C., Lentini, E., & Magrin, G. (2006). Understanding the potential impact of climate change and variability in Latin America and the Caribbean. Report prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. In http://www.sternreview.org.uk, 34.
Nicholls, R. J. (2004). Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 69–86.
Oliver Smith, A. (2009). Nature, society, and population displacement. Toward an understanding of environmental migration and social vulnerability (InterSecTions ‘Interdisciplinary Security ConnecTions’ publication series of UNU-EHS, n°8). Bonn: UNU-EHS.
Orlove, B. (2009). The past, the present, and some possible futures of adaptation. In W. N. Adger, I. Lorenzoni, & K. O’Brien (Eds.), Adapting to climate change: Thresholds, values, governance (pp. 63–131). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
OXFAM. (2009). Bolivia: Climate change, poverty and adaptation. Bolivia: OXFAM International.
Paul, B. K. (2005). Evidence against disaster-induced migration: The 2004 tornado in north-central Bangladesh. Disasters, 4, 370–385.
Paz Rada, O. (2007). Proyecto Estudios de Cambio Climático. Programa Nacional de Cambios Climáticos (PNCC). Bolivia: Gobierno de Bolivia.
Pezza, A. B., & Simmonds, I. (2005). The first South Atlantic hurricane: Unprecedented blocking, low shear and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L15712.
Piguet, E. (2008). Climate change and forced migration (New Issues in Refugee Research – United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Research Paper N°153). Geneva: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
Piguet, E. (2010). Linking climate change, environmental degradation and migration: A methodological overview. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 517–524.
Piguet, E. (2012). Des apatrides du climat? Annales de Géographie, 683, 86–100.
Ramirez, E. (2006). Impacto del Cambio Climático sobre la Disponibilidad de los Recursos Hídricos. In J. Choquehuanca, D. Hoffmann, & M. Frias (Eds.), Retroceso de los Glaciares y Recursos Hídricos en Bolivia – De la Investigación a la Acción (pp. 19–31). La Paz: Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña – UMSA.
Rhoades, R. (2008). Disappearance of the glacier on Mama Cotacachi: Ethnoecological research and climate change in the Ecuadorian Andes. Pirineos, 163, 37–50.
Rodrigues, A. S. L., Ewers, R. M., Parry, L., Souza, C., Veríssimo, A., & Balmford, A. (2009). Boom-and-bust development patterns across the Amazon deforestation frontier. Science, 324, 1435–1437.
Ross, L. R. (2010). Climate change and immigration: Warnings for America’s southern border. In Perspectives. Washington, DC: American Security Project.
Saldaña-Zorrilla, S., & Sandberg, K. (2009). Impact of climate-related disasters on human migration in Mexico: A spatial model. Climatic Change, 96, 97–118.
Schmidt-Verkerk, K. (2009). The potential influence of changing precipitation and temperature patterns on migratory behaviour in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico. In A. Oliver-Smith & X. Shen (Eds.), Linking environmental change, migration & social vulnerability (pp. 51–60). Bonn: Source 12 – Publication Series of UNU-EHS.
Schwartz Leighton, M., & Notini, J. (1994). Desertification and migration: Mexico and the United States. San Francisco: U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform.
Simms, A., & Hannah, R. (2006). Up in smoke? Latin America and the Caribbean. 48. Working Group on Climate Change and Development.
Soruco, A., Vincent, C., Francou, B., & Gonzalez Javier, F. (2009). Glacier decline between 1963 and 2006 in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L03502.
Vergara, W. (2005). Adapting to climate change. Lessons learned, work in progress and proposed next steps for the World Bank in Latin America (Sustainable Development Working Paper 25). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
Viviroli, D., Dürr, H., Messerli, B., Meybeck, M., & Weingartner, R. (2007). Mountains of the world – Water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping and global significance. Water Resources Research, 43(7), W07447.
Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., & Chai-Onn, T. (2009). In search of shelter: Mapping the effects of climate change on human migration and displacement. CARE/CIESIN/UNHCR/UNU-EHS/World Bank.
Wrathall, D. J. (2008). The role of entitlements in shaping the migration behaviours of vulnerable people: A conceptual model based on lessons from Hurricane Mitch in Honduras, UNU Conference Paper, 27 July–3 August 2008.
Young, K. R., & Lipton, J. K. (2006). Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of western South America. Climatic Change, 78, 63–102.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kaenzig, R., Piguet, E. (2014). Migration and Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean. In: Piguet, E., Laczko, F. (eds) People on the Move in a Changing Climate. Global Migration Issues, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6985-4_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-6984-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-6985-4
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)