1. Introduction

Although agriculture accounts for about 17.8 percent of country’s Gross Value Added (GVA) (2019–20 current prices), it remains central to the Indian economy as it still engages about 44% of the work force (it was 47% in 2015–16 as per Labour Bureau, GOI). India is also going to be the most populous country in the world by 2027, according to population projections by the UN, and ensuring food security for this large mass of humanity is a daunting task, more so when it also has the largest number of poor and malnourished in the world (as per World Bank’s Development indicators). An average Indian household spends about 45% of its expenditure on food (this ratio stands at 60% for the poor in bottom expenditure group) (NSSO 2011). No wonder agriculture remains critical for India as it has implications not only for farmers in terms of their income, but also for consumers, especially with respect to ensuring food security of the poor and the malnourished.

To find answers to some of these questions, normally the approach that many studies take is to turn outward and look for global best practices and evaluate them to assess the possibility of replicating these domestically. This book uniquely looks inward in the sense that it looks at best practices and experiences within Indian states.

India has been a federation of 29 states and 7 union territories¹ (until 30 October 2019, and as treated in this study) and not all of them are equally agrarian. They vary in terms of their natural resource endowments, share of agriculture in overall state employment, contribution of agriculture to overall state gross domestic product (GDP) and, inter alia, in terms of the historical growth rate witnessed in their agriculture sector. This brings us to the starting point of the research based on which this book is written: how can some Indian states grow faster than others? How have some states continued to lag behind while others have grown sharply? Are there lessons that Indian states can learn from each other? By looking within the country to find best practices and solutions to agrarian problems in fellow states, this book offers a unique perspective.

Agriculture in the current Indian context has multiple roles. The four most important roles, inter alia, are:

Given the centrality of the sector and the importance of the sector’s growth in terms of food security and poverty alleviation, this book proposes an evidence-based roadmap for revitalising Indian agriculture while ensuring that the growth process is efficient, inclusive and sustainable, and results in sustained growth of farmers’ incomes.

The book does this by undertaking analysis under the following four broad heads.

All analysis is then processed, collated and presented as a roadmap for revitalising Indian agriculture. The roadmap builds on (a) the results of research and analysis presented in this book and (b) on broader macro-issues that, even though not discussed in much depth in the book, are necessary for agricultural growth.

Using historical data on the relative agricultural growth rates in different states, two sets of states were selected—those that had performed exceptionally well and those that had a relatively lacklustre performance. The aim was to identify and distil learnings and best practices in the better performing states and see if they can be replicated in states whose performance was relatively poor.

Based on average historical growth rates (Fig. 1.1), the two set of states were identified as follows:

Both Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have experienced very high rates of agricultural growth, particularly during the last 10–15 years. Despite low current growth rates in Punjab, the state was selected for its exceptional historical performance during the post-Green Revolution period since the mid-1960s. Today, the state has a low growth rate but that can be explained by the high base that it has developed over the years.

The study also focuses on—Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha—because of the importance of agriculture in these states and prevalence of high levels of poverty and malnutrition.

The six selected states are presented on the Indian graph in Fig. 1.2. These six states together account for 41.9% of India’s population (Census 2011), 38.6% of India’s gross value added in agriculture (TE 2016–17, Source NAS, MOSPI), 43.05% of India’s agricultural workforce (Census 2011) and 53.9% of India’s poverty (Planning Commission 2011).

Interestingly, lessons for best practices emerged both ways. In line with our earlier expectations, analysis of the high performing states of Punjab, MP and Gujarat helped us in identifying agricultural best practices. But in addition, the analysis of the three laggard states—UP, Bihar and Odisha—also revealed certain exceptional policies followed by them which had potential for replication in other Indian states.

The book is organised into 12 chapters, each provides a building block for the concluding chapter that presents a roadmap for revitalising Indian agriculture while ensuring growth in farmers’ incomes.

After this introductory chapter, Chap. 2 presents a synthesis of the book.

Chapter 3 explores the linkages between agriculture, poverty and malnutrition at the state level. To test this linkage, a major econometric analysis was done by pooling cross section and time series data across major Indian states.

Next up, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the agriculture and allied activities sector in each of the six identified states is presented as distinct state chapters in Chaps. 4–9. These chapters relate to the Performance of Agriculture inPunjab (Chap.4);Gujarat (Chap.5); Madhya Pradesh (Chap.6); Uttar Pradesh (Chap.7); Bihar (Chap.8) and Odisha (Chap.9).

The analysis at the state level involved (a) identifying the sources of growth within agriculture by sub-groups of commodities such as grains, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, livestock, fisheries and by sub-regions; (b) finding the determinants of agricultural growth in each of the states, especially the role of policy, infrastructure, land and water resources, agricultural R&D, institutional changes in agricultural marketing, etc; and (c) to the extent possible, looking at the budgets of selected states with a view to estimate the investment(s) needed, especially in the three states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha, in case they chose to implement some of the best practices as delineated in their respective cases.

A state-wise analysis of farmers’ incomes has been undertaken in Chap. 10. It was observed during the research that states that had higher agricultural GDP growth rates did not necessarily deliver faster growth rates in farmers’ incomes. In Gujarat and MP (to some extent), despite higher AGDP growth, farmers’ incomes failed to rise as fast. Contrarily, farmers’ incomes have risen sharply in Odisha, Punjab, UP and Bihar despite a not-so-impressive AGDP performance.

A comparative state-wise analysis of the sources of farmers’ incomes and their trends over time was done to identify major challenges that limited growth.

In Chap. 11, the focus is on policies, programmes and schemes as implemented recently by the central government to support Indian agriculture. Major schemes are outlined, analysed for their efficiency and efficacy, and gaps in design and implementation are identified.

The book ends with Chap. 12, which presents a way forward not only to spur Indian agriculture but also to help augment farmers’ incomes. The recommendations in this chapter emanate primarily from the analysis presented in preceding chapters but the chapter also contains other recommendations on macro-issues that are likely to help improve the overall eco-system in which agriculture and Indian farmers operate.