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An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture

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Abstract

This paper summarizes some of the results and conclusions of an international project funded by IIASA and UNEP on the effects of climatic variations on agriculture. An overall goal of the project was to improve our understanding both of first-order effects of climatic variations on agricultural productivity and of higher-order effects on regional and national economies. Two broad types of experiments are described: (i) impact experiments, which provide estimates of first-order and higher-order effects of climatic variations on farming systems, and which assume that no adjustments are put in place, and (ii) adjustment experiments, which evaluate a number of adjustments available at the farm or government level to offset or mitigate these effects.

The results from case studies in cool temperate and cold regions in Saskatchewan (Canada), Iceland, Finland, northern European U.S.S.R. and Japan] are described here. Findings from a parallel set of IIASA/UNEP case studies in semiarid regions, which examine the effects of a different set of climatic scenarios, are reported elsewhere (Parry et al., 1988b).

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  1. Atmospheric Impacts Research Group, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

    M. L. Parry & T. R. Carter

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  1. M. L. Parry
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  2. T. R. Carter
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Parry, M.L., Carter, T.R. An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture. Climatic Change 15, 95–116 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138848

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138848

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