Conclusion
This study finds that one of the most important determinants of election outcomes in gubernatorial elections is the voter's familiarity with the candidates. When an incumbent governor seeks re-election, his party's share of the vote increases by about 7.3 percentage points, ceteris paribus. Likewise, when a former candidate represents the opposition party, the incumbent party's share of the vote decreases by about three percentage points, ceteris paribus. The electoral history of the state also has a significant effect on the share of the vote received by the incumbent party.
The major finding of this study is that state economic conditions exert only a weak influence on the outcome of gubernatorial elections. Assuming that voters are rational, a major implication of this finding is that voters do not view a governor as being able to substantially influence a state's economy. If, during a gubernatorial campaign, voters view the candidates as having little or no control over the state economy they will evaluate candidates on the basis of non-economic positions.
The results of this study seem to imply that the outcomes of gub ernatorial elections are determined primarily by non-economic factors. Factors such as candidate personality and positions on a wide variety of non-economic issues that voters deem important appear to be the major determinants of gubernatorial election outcomes.
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Levernier, W. The effect of relative economic performance on the outcome of gubernational elections. Public Choice 74, 181–190 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140766
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140766