Statistical treatment of experimental errors in the fission track dating method

Abstract

The major stochastic elements in the fission track dating method are (i) the number of spontaneous fission tracks (N _s ) in a sample, and (ii) the number of induced tracks (N _i ) observed when the sample is irradiated with neutrons. The foundations for the statistical uncertainty in these measures are of two kinds: (i) there exists a definite probability of uranium fission by means of natural decay and by neutron activation, and (ii) within a crystal the distribution of uranium is not uniform and perhaps follows something like a Poisson law. In any event, the natural logarithm of the ratio (N _s /N _i ) is proportional to age. A plausible statistical fission track dating model should, therefore, start by considering the joint distribution of N _s and N _i . In this paper a joint bivariate normal model is described which allows the rigorous definition of the probability distributions of N_s, N _i , the ratio N _s /N _i , and age itself. A general computer program (FISSION) has been developed to perform all the necessary computations. By accounting for the correlation between N _s and N _i , the statistical model here ascribes smaller standard errors to N _s /N _i (and therefore age) than do previous methods. In addition, the error associated with neutron flux is a significant factor in the age relationships and has been incorporated into the model.