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Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909

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Abstract

Annual variations in births, marriages, deaths, grain prices, and quarterly temperature series in England, France, Prussia, and Sweden are analyzed using a distributed lag model. The results provide support for the existence of the shortterm preventive, positive and temperature checks to population growth. Decreases in fertility and nuptiality are generally associated with increases in grain prices. Increases in mortality appear to be associated with high grain prices, cold winters and hot summers. Changes in these responses over time are examined within the context of economic development.

‘The causes of a high mortality are various; but the greater number of known causes may be referred to five heads: 1) excessive cold or heat; 2) privation of food; 3) effluvial poisons generated in marshes, foul prisons, camps, cities; and epidemic diseases, such as typhus, plague, small pox, and other zymotic diseases; 4) mechanical and chemical injuries; 5) spontaneous disorders to which the structure of the human organization renders it liable.’ - Farr (1846, p. 164).

‘...a foresight of the difficulties attending the rearing of a family acts as a preventive check, and the actual distresses of some of the lower classes, by which they are disabled from giving the proper food and attention to their children, acts as a positive check to the natural increase of population.’ - Malthus (1798, Chapter 4).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, 94720, Berkeley, California, USA

    Patrick R. Galloway

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  1. Patrick R. Galloway
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The research on which this paper is based has been funded by grants R01-HD18107 and T32-HD07275 from the U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. This paper is associated with the author's ‘Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe’,Population Studies 42, 2, 1988, 275-303. I thank Ronald Lee, Ulla Larsen, and Jan de Vries for helpful comments and suggestions.

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Galloway, P.R. Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909. Climatic Change 26, 3–63 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01094008

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