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Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach

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Abstract

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Science Center, Reichpietschufer 50, D-10785, Berlin, Germany

    E. Bruckner & A. Scharnhorst

  2. Institute of Theoretical Physics, Humboldt University, Unter den Linden 6, D-10099, Berlin, Germany

    W. Ebeling

  3. Universidad de las Americas Puebla, Apartado Postal 47, 72820, Cholula, Puebla, Mexico

    M. A. Jiménez Montaño

Authors
  1. E. Bruckner
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  2. W. Ebeling
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  3. M. A. Jiménez Montaño
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  4. A. Scharnhorst
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Bruckner, E., Ebeling, W., Montaño, M.A.J. et al. Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach. J Evol Econ 6, 1–30 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01202370

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