Summary
We idenify the invertible coherent functional relation between an array of asserted conditional probabilities and the probability distribution for the sum of events that are regarded exchangeably, in the regular case thatP(N N+1 |S N =a) ∈ (0, 1) for everya=0, 1, ...,N. The result is used to construct a useful algebraic and geometrical representation of all coherent inferences in the regular case, including those that are nonlinear in the sum of the conditioning events. The special case in which conditional probabilities mimic observed frequencies within (0, 1) receives an exact solution, which allows an easy interpretation of its surprising consequences. Finally, we introduce a new direction in research on prior opinion assessment that this approach, inverse to the usual one, suggests.
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Lad, F., Deely, J. & Piesse, A. Coherency conditions for finite exchangeable inference. J. It. Statist. Soc. 4, 195–213 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589102
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02589102