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A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline

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Abstract

Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the Auckland Regional Council, and benefited from research funded by the Earthquake Commission (EQC) and the New Zealand Natural Hazards Platform. We are grateful for helpful discussions with Laura Wallace, Martin Reyners, Mark Stirling and Graeme McVerry. We thank an anonymous reviewer for helpful suggestions that improved this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    William Power & Xiaoming Wang

  2. NIWA, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Emily Lane & Philip Gillibrand

  3. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia

    Philip Gillibrand

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  1. William Power
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  2. Xiaoming Wang
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  3. Emily Lane
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  4. Philip Gillibrand
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Correspondence to William Power.

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Power, W., Wang, X., Lane, E. et al. A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part I: Propagation Modelling and Tsunami Hazard Assessment at the Shoreline. Pure Appl. Geophys. 170, 1621–1634 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0543-z

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