Zusammenfassung
Die Rückfallprognosen von 134 Sexualstraftätern, die aus drei verschiedenen Stichproben stammten, wurden retrospektiv mit Hilfe der Prognoseinstrumente HCR-20, SVR-20, Static-99 und PCL-R eingeschätzt. Nach einem durchschnittlichen Beobachtungszeitraum von 9 Jahren wurde die Prognose durch Auswertung der Bundeszentralregisterauszüge evaluiert. Die Auswertung erfolgte mit Hilfe von ROC-Statistiken und Überlebensanalysen. Der Static-99 erreichte die größte prädiktive Validität (AUC 0,710; KI 0,621–0,799 bzw. AUC 0,721, KI 0,624–0,818 ohne Therapieabbrecher). Die Validität des SVR-20 war geringfügig schlechter (AUC 0,646). Die Vorhersagekraft der übrigen Instrumente und ihrer Untergruppen (PCL-R, HCR-20) fiel demgegenüber mit Ausnahme der historischen Items des HCR-20 weiter ab. Kaplan-Meier-Überlebensanalysen zeigten für den Static-99 und den SVR-20 einen hoch signifikanten Zusammenhang mit den Zeitpunkten der Rückfälle. Allerdings führte ein alleiniger Einsatz des Static-99 und SVR-20 in bis zu zwei Dritteln der Fälle zu „falsch-positiven“ Einschätzungen. Bei zwei von drei Tätern wurde mit Hilfe der Instrumente ein Rückfall vorausgesagt, obwohl er tatsächlich nicht eintrat.
Summary
In order to evaluate risk assessment instruments for sex offenders in Germany, we compared the predictive validity of the Static-99, HCR-20, SVR-20, and PCL-R scales for 134 sex offenders. The mean follow-up time was 9 years (range 1–340 months), using the first entry into the National Register of Criminal Convictions as endpoint variable. For the estimate of predictive power, the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was calculated. The AUC plots accurately identified violent or sexual recidivists and “false positives” at all scale levels. Comparing the predictive validity of these four instruments, the results favored Static-99. As for the limited sample size, differences between the assessment instruments were, however, not statistically significant. The ROC analysis for Static-99 showed that including treatment dropouts does not improve predictive accuracy (including dropouts: AUC 0.710; excluding dropouts: AUC 0.721). Kaplan-Meier survival analyses yielded highly a significant correlation to recidivism time point for two Static-99 and SVR-20 risk categories. Higher-risk categories were related to earlier recidivism. However, relying on the Static-99 and SVR-20 alone showed false positive results: for up to two out of three sex offenders, they predicted recidivism which did not occur.
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Stadtland, C., Hollweg, M., Kleindienst, N. et al. Rückfallprognosen bei Sexualstraftätern — Vergleich der prädiktiven Validität von Prognoseinstrumenten. Nervenarzt 77, 587–595 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00115-005-1945-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00115-005-1945-2