1 Introduction
2 Economic resilience
2.1 Concept and measurement
2.2 Determinants of resilience
3 Data and variables
3.1 Dependent variables
Variable | AVERAGE06–07 | AVERAGE05–07 | AVERAGE04–07 | EMPLOYMENT07 |
---|---|---|---|---|
AVERAGE06–07 | 1 | |||
AVERAGE05–07 | 0.9862 | 1 | ||
AVERAGE04–07 | 0.9703 | 0.9929 | 1 | |
EMPLOYMENT07 | 0.9578 | 0.9367 | 0.9198 | 1 |
Obs | Mean | SD | Min | Max | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
IMPACT | 378 | 3.12 | 2.43 |
\(-\)7.33 | 11.38 |
3.2 Independent variables
Theme | Variable | Definition | Papers with similar variable |
---|---|---|---|
Initial economic conditions | EMP_2007 | Employment rate 16 + 2007 |
Lee (2014) |
Sectoral composition of employment | MANF | Percentage of all in employment who work in—Manufacturing (C, SIC 2007) 2007 |
Lee (2014) |
TS | Percentage of all in employment who work in—total services (G-Q, SIC 2007) 2007 | ||
BIF | Percentage of all in employment who work in—banking, finance and insurance (K-N, SIC 2007) 2007 | ||
CON | Percentage of all in employment who work in—Construction (F, SIC 2007) 2007 | ||
Industrial diversity | LN_HHI | Natural Logarithm of Herfindahl–Hirschman Index for employment on sections | |
Entrepreneurship | ENTR | Average firm birth per 1000 population 2004–2007 |
Bishop and Shilcof (2016) |
Employee training and human capital | TRAIN | Average % of employee training 2004–2007 | |
DEGREE | % of population with degree or equivalent and above 2007 | ||
NO_QUAL | % of population with no qualifications 2007 | ||
Demographics | AGE_20_34 | Population aged 20–34 as a % of total | |
AGE_35_49 | Population aged 35–49 as a % of total | ||
AGE_50_64 | Population aged 50–64 as a % of total | ||
Population density | LN_DENSITY | Natural logarithm of population density 2007 | |
Geography | NOE | North of England dummy including former regions North East, North West and Yorkshire and the Humber |
Lee (2014) |
MIDLANDS | Midlands dummy including East and West Midlands | ||
SCOTLAND | Scotland dummy | ||
WALES | Wales dummy |
Variable | Obs | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMP_2007 | 378 | 60.40 | 4.84 | 45.60 | 71.90 |
MANF | 377 | 12.48 | 5.02 | 1.90 | 29.60 |
TS | 379 | 75.44 | 6.20 | 56.70 | 93.80 |
BIF | 376 | 14.27 | 6.40 | 2.80 | 72.50 |
CON | 376 | 8.87 | 2.52 | 1.50 | 18.30 |
LN_HHI | 378 | 7.51 | 0.10 | 7.26 | 7.88 |
ENTR | 380 | 7.65 | 11.10 | 3.00 | 218.82 |
TRAIN | 378 | 10.72 | 1.56 | 5.90 | 14.60 |
DEGREE | 379 | 19.32 | 8.65 | 5.90 | 75.80 |
NO_QUAL | 378 | 12.74 | 4.51 | 2.00 | 29.90 |
AGE_20_34 | 380 | 18.40 | 4.98 | 10.70 | 38.20 |
AGE_35_49 | 380 | 22.21 | 1.39 | 18.00 | 26.80 |
AGE_50_64 | 380 | 18.75 | 2.55 | 9.00 | 23.70 |
LN_DENSITY | 380 | 6.31 | 1.47 | 2.20 | 9.51 |
IMPACT | AVG_2004_2007 | EMP_2007 | MANF | TS | BIF | CON | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IMPACT | 1.00 | ||||||||
AVG_2004_2007 | 0.32 | 1.00 | |||||||
EMP_2007 | 0.25 | 0.92 | 1.00 | ||||||
MANF | 0.23 |
\(-\)0.05 |
\(-\)0.05 | 1.00 | |||||
TS |
\(-\)0.23 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
\(-\)0.80 | 1.00 | ||||
BIF |
\(-\)0.23 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
\(-\)0.52 | 0.70 | 1.00 | |||
CON | 0.11 |
\(-\)0.15 |
\(-\)0.17 |
\(-\)0.04 |
\(-\)0.41 |
\(-\)0.30 |
\(-\)1.00 | ||
LN_HHI |
\(-\)0.16 |
\(-\)0.26 |
\(-\)0.22 |
\(-\)0.21 | 0.40 | 0.07 |
\(-\)0.31 | ||
ENTR |
\(-\)0.10 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
\(-\)0.31 | 0.39 | 0.58 |
\(-\)0.26 | ||
TRAIN | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
\(-\)0.08 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
\(-\)0.04 | ||
DEGREE |
\(-\)0.26 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
\(-\)0.46 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
\(-\)0.41 | ||
NO_QUAL |
\(-\)0.04 |
\(-\)0.55 |
\(-\)0.54 | 0.29 |
\(-\)0.26 |
\(-\)0.30 | 0.09 | ||
AGE_20_34 |
\(-\)0.35 |
\(-\)0.01 | 0.04 |
\(-\)0.25 | 0.46 | 0.41 |
\(-\)0.32 | ||
AGE_35_49 | 0.09 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
\(-\)0.16 | ||
AGE_50_64 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
\(-\)0.04 | 0.24 |
\(-\)0.47 |
\(-\)0.44 | 0.28 | ||
LN_DENSITY |
\(-\)0.21 |
\(-\)0.10 |
\(-\)0.06 |
\(-\)0.15 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
\(-\)0.22 |
LN_HHI | ENTR | TRAIN | DEGREE | NO_QUAL | AGE_20_34 | AGE_35_49 | AGE_50_64 | LN_DENSITY | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LN_HHI | 1.00 | ||||||||
ENTR | 0.00 | 1.00 | |||||||
TRAIN | 0.05 |
\(-\)0.07 | 1.00 | ||||||
DEGREE | 0.21 | 0.60 | 0.17 | 1.00 | |||||
NO_QUAL | 0.00 |
\(-\)0.40 |
\(-\)0.42 |
\(-\)0.50 | 1.00 | ||||
AGE_20_34 | 0.22 | 0.13 |
\(-\)0.03 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 1.00 | |||
AGE_35_49 |
\(-\)0.26 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
\(-\)0.22 |
\(-\)0.08 | 1.00 | ||
AGE_50_64 |
\(-\)0.14 |
\(-\)0.09 | 0.04 |
\(-\)0.37 |
\(-\)0.19 |
\(-\)0.93 |
\(-\)0.04 | 1.00 | |
LN_DENSITY | 0.15 | 0.07 |
\(-\)0.04 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.73 | 0.02 |
\(-\)0.81 | 1.00 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coef./se | Coef./se | Coef./se | Coef./se | Coef./se | Coef./se | |
EMP_2007 | 0.247*** | 0.253*** | 0.249*** | 0.226*** | 0.232*** | 0.229*** |
(0.04) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.03) | |
MANF | 0.009 | 0.005 | ||||
(0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
TS | 0.031 | 0.04 | ||||
(0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
BIF |
\(-\)0.024 |
\(-\)0.023 | ||||
(0.03) | (0.03) | |||||
CON |
\(-\)0.006 |
\(-\)0.001 | ||||
(0.03) | (0.04) | |||||
LN_HHI |
\(-\)0.098 |
\(-\)0.747 |
\(-\)0.035 |
\(-\)0.496 |
\(-\)1.304 |
\(-\)0.406 |
(1.62) | (1.84) | (1.73) | (1.62) | (1.77) | (1.77) | |
ENTR | 0.112** | 0.102* | 0.133** | 0.063 | 0.051 | 0.088 |
(0.04) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.06) | |
TRAIN | 0.192* | 0.200* | 0.196* | 0.201* | 0.211** | 0.207** |
(0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.09) | |
DEGREE |
\(-\)0.056** |
\(-\)0.064** |
\(-\)0.055* |
\(-\)0.062** |
\(-\)0.071*** |
\(-\)0.061** |
(0.02) | (0.02) | (0.03) | (0.02) | (0.02) | (0.02) | |
NO_QUAL | 0.079 | 0.086* | 0.091* | 0.081* | 0.090** | 0.094** |
(0.05) | (0.05) | (0.05) | (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.04) | |
AGE_20_34 |
\(-\)0.222*** |
\(-\)0.222*** |
\(-\)0.214*** | |||
(0.03) | (0.03) | (0.04) | ||||
AGE_35_49 |
\(-\)0.338*** |
\(-\)0.333*** |
\(-\)0.312** |
\(-\)0.176* |
\(-\)0.173* |
\(-\)0.157 |
(0.1) | (0.09) | (0.11) | (0.09) | (0.09) | (0.11) | |
AGE_50_64 | 0.443*** | 0.447*** | 0.423*** | |||
(0.08) | (0.09) | (0.09) | ||||
LN_DENSITY | 0.341*** | 0.302** | 0.330*** | 0.386*** | 0.343** | 0.370** |
(0.09) | (0.1) | (0.09) | (0.1) | (0.12) | (0.12) | |
NOE | 0.704*** | 0.844*** | 0.658** | 0.462* | 0.622** | 0.429 |
(0.22) | (0.2) | (0.26) | (0.25) | (0.21) | (0.28) | |
MIDLANDS | 0.863*** | 1.068*** | 0.793** | 0.596* | 0.826*** | 0.532 |
(0.24) | (0.21) | (0.29) | (0.29) | (0.23) | (0.32) | |
SCOTLAND | 0.956*** | 0.961** | 0.858** | 0.435 | 0.457 | 0.37 |
(0.3) | (0.31) | (0.34) | (0.33) | (0.34) | (0.39) | |
WALES | 0.074 | 0.219 |
\(-\)0.038 |
\(-\)0.197 |
\(-\)0.025 |
\(-\)0.291 |
(0.35) | (0.33) | (0.4) | (0.38) | (0.36) | (0.42) | |
Constant |
\(-\)4.89 |
\(-\)2.509 |
\(-\)5.972 |
\(-\)16.333 |
\(-\)13.542 |
\(-\)17.149 |
(13.63) | (14.16) | (15.29) | (13.3) | (13.66) | (15.51) | |
R-squared | 0.305 | 0.311 | 0.307 | 0.3 | 0.307 | 0.302 |
N. of cases | 377 | 378 | 374 | 377 | 378 | 374 |