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Erschienen in: Empirical Economics 1/2016

01.08.2016

Dynamics of investment and firm performance: comparative evidence from manufacturing industries

verfasst von: Marco Grazzi, Nadia Jacoby, Tania Treibich

Erschienen in: Empirical Economics | Ausgabe 1/2016

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Abstract

This paper investigates the channels linking investment and firm performance in the French and Italian manufacturing industries and proposes a novel methodology to identify investment spikes which corrects for nonlinear size dependence. Using large data sets reporting observed investment from official sources, we provide a systematic comparison of the relation between investment and firm performance across (i) different definitions of investment spikes, our proposed measure and previous ones; (ii) different institutional settings, i.e. France and Italy; (iii) several performance proxies; and (iv) investment types. We show that the failure to account for the scaling relation between investment spikes and firm size can bias such analyses. Moreover, differences also emerge across countries in the way investment spikes translate into future firm performance.

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Fußnoten
1
Among the papers using a comparable methodology to Doms and Dunne (1998), the reader could refer to Duhautois and Jamet (2001) for France, Nilsen and Schiantarelli (2003) and Nilsen et al. (2009) for Norway and Carlsson and Laséen (2005) for Sweden.
 
2
The impact of lumpy investment patterns on aggregate outcomes has also been studied in macroeconomic models, firms’ behaviours either being driven by nonconvex capital adjustment costs (Thomas 2002; Christiano et al. 2005; Fiori 2012; Bachmann et al. 2013) or adaptive routines (Dosi et al. 2006). In the latter case, firms do not try to catch up with an optimal level of capital, but respond to expectations of significant demand growth.
 
3
Either labour productivity or total factor productivity is considered. The former is used in Power (1998), Bessen (1999) and Nilsen et al. (2009), the latter is used in Huggett and Ospina (2001) and Shima (2010).
 
4
Duhautois and Jamet (2001) used observed investment from the French tax data set (fichier des Bénéfices réels normaux, INSEE); however, they do not investigate the relation between investment spikes and firm performance.
 
5
Both databanks were made available to the authors under the mandatory condition of censorship of individual information. The Micro.3 database was developed in a collaboration between the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) and members of the Laboratory of Economics and Management of Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa. More detailed information on the development of the Micro.3 database can be found in Grazzi et al. (2013).
 
6
More detail about the data can be found in the “Appendix”.
 
7
We also tested whether including leased capital in the definition of the investment variable affected the results. Since it did not, we do not consider leased capital. The decision to exclude leased capital is also motivated by accounting differences between the two countries. Indeed, the variable is reported as the yearly cost of rents in the French database, whereas in the Italian one it is the total indebtedness in the year of the investment.
 
8
Gross Operative Margin is valued added minus wages, salaries and social insurances paid by the firm.
 
9
This relates to the sample construction in more recent years, and it is further explained in the online section “supplementary materials”.
 
10
Investment shares are, for each firm-year couple, the ratio of current (deflated) investment to the total (deflated) investment over the 19 years (18 for Italy):
$$\begin{aligned} \hbox {IShare}_{i,t}= \frac{I_{i,t}}{\sum _{\tau =t_0}^{t_{\mathrm{max}}} I_{i,\tau }} \end{aligned}$$
where \(t_0=1989\) for both countries, and \(t_{\mathrm{max}}=2007\) for France and \(t_{\mathrm{max}}=2006\) for Italy. The use of this measure instead of the investment ratio allows to circumvent the lack of capital data in the French sample before 1996. Notice also that in order to compute mean and median over the same number of observations per firm, i.e. 19 years for France and 18 for Italian firms, we have to use a balanced panel. Nominal investments are deflated with the corresponding price index at the two-digit level of industry disaggregation.
 
11
In the latter article the authors show also that the relative importance of idiosyncratic vs. aggregate shocks on firms’ investment decisions depends heavily on the industry under investigation.
 
12
The “Appendix” contains a review of the measures employed in previous empirical work on investment spikes, and it explains how we adapted those measures to data in our sample.
 
13
Gibrat’s law (refer to Gibrat 1931 for the original contribution, and to Sutton 1997 for a review) states that a firm’s growth is independent on its size. It is also referred to as the “law of proportionate effects”. Considering investment rates as capital growth rates, we could therefore expect them to be independent of firm size.
 
14
Moments are computed on 20 equispaced points; Epanechnikov kernel is used (Silverman 1986).
 
15
The duration dummies are especially meant to act as controls for recent spikes. Indeed, “multi-year spikes” (i.e. observing a spike in two or more consecutive years in the time series of a firm) are quite frequent in the data, accounting for nearly 44 and 33 %, respectively, of the spikes in the French and Italian data sets in the case of our Kernel rule. For this reason, we go as far as three periods before the dependent variable is observed.
 
16
As shown in the “Appendix” (Table 11), 43 % of firms in France and 50 % in Italy have time series without any spike. Using a fixed effects estimator would therefore greatly reduce the sample size. Further, it would not allow to investigate the characteristics that differentiate investing and noninvesting firms, and would only explain the timing of the within-firm pattern, which is our focus in the subsequent analysis (Sect. 4.2). For the same reasons, we also discard the Generalized Method of Moments.
 
17
This is due to a comparability issue; indeed, both the French and Italian databases provide the same set of variables to compute RoS, while the cash flow measure is computed differently for the two countries. However, in both samples, the cash flow and RoS variables are strongly correlated, as indicated by a Spearman’s rho coefficient of around 0.9.
 
18
More precisely, for each firm i, the score is given by \(\frac{1}{N} \sum _{i=1}^{N} (Y_i - P_i)^2\), where N is the number of firms, \(Y_i\) is the observed event (\(Y_i=1\) if there is a spike and \(Y_i=0\) if not), and \(P_i\) is the probability that firm i experiences a spike given the estimated coefficients of the dynamic logit regression.
 
19
Interpreting the positive relation between past profitability and investment as a sign of the presence of financial constraints is further confirmed by a test of the interaction effect between profitability and firm size, on the probability to invest. The results, not shown here, reveal that the sensitivity of investment to profitability is even greater for the category of small firms, defined as those firms whose numbers of employees are below the median.
 
20
This result can be reconciled with the existence of quadratic adjustment costs or irreversible investment. In both cases, multi-year spikes can be expected, where the firm would invest in repeated years. Instead, a positive duration dependence is expected in the case of fixed adjustment costs, because the gains from investing very shortly after a first spike are very small (see the discussion in Bigsten et al. 2005, p. 5).
 
21
Notice that, contrary to Sect. 4.1, resorting to fixed effects models when the dependent variable is not a time invariant dummy does not reduce the sample size.
 
22
Similar to Eq. 2 \(\hbox {DPlant}_{t0}\) takes the value 1 if the increase in the number of plants is contemporaneous; \(\hbox {DPlant}_{t1}\) takes the value 1 if it occurred in \(t-1\), but not in t; and finally \(\hbox {DPlant}_{t2}\) takes value 1 if the increase in the number of plants was at \(t-2\), but not in \(t-1\) or in t.
 
23
Notice that the expenses related to the opening of a new plant do not necessarily overlap with our proposed measure of investment spike. However, the investment rates in the year of the opening of a new plant tend to be rather high: the average is around 20 %, as compared to an unconditional average of 14 % (see Table 3).
 
24
We thank an anonymous referee for suggesting this interpretation of the results.
 
25
Both databanks were made available to the authors under the mandatory condition of censorship of individual information. The Micro.3 database was developed in a collaboration between the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) and members of the Laboratory of Economics and Management of Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa. More detailed information on the development of the Micro.3 database can be found in Grazzi et al. (2013).
 
26
Since 1978, the process of harmonization of accounting standards has resulted in changes to national legislation: 78/660/EEC on the annual accounts of certain types of companies, 83/349/EEC on consolidated accounts, 86/635/EEC on the annual accounts and consolidated accounts of banks and other financial institutions and 91/674/EEC. Directive 2006/46/EC of the European Parliament amended the above sources.
 
27
This is because before 1996, firms between 20 and 99 employees were surveyed with a simplified questionnaire.
 
28
Limited liability companies (società di capitali) have to provide a copy of their financial statements to the Register of Firms at the local Chamber of Commerce.
 
29
Notice that, for descriptive purposes, Figs. 2 and 3 of the paper employ the whole span of the available sample period, 1989–2007 (2006 for Italy).
 
30
Power (1998) reports that the results do not change much with the threshold, and therefore the author picks the value at which the number of investment episodes that will be discarded is the lowest.
 
31
This rule which combines the thresholds in Power (1998) and Cooper et al. (1999) is also used by Licandro et al. (2004).
 
32
They estimate the following linear relation between observed investment rates and the log of capital: \(I_{i,t}/K_{i,t-1}=\gamma _0 + \gamma _1 \text {ln} K_{i,t-1}+ e_{i,t}\). Then they use the estimated value of the investment rate \(E[(I_{i,t}/K_{i,t-1}|K_{i,t-1}]\) to identify the spikes.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Dynamics of investment and firm performance: comparative evidence from manufacturing industries
verfasst von
Marco Grazzi
Nadia Jacoby
Tania Treibich
Publikationsdatum
01.08.2016
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Empirical Economics / Ausgabe 1/2016
Print ISSN: 0377-7332
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-8921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0991-2

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