Abstract
Two data sets, annual temperature and precipitation time series from 19 observation stations in the Tarim River basin covering 1958 through 2002, were investigated by non-parametric tests to detect the trend and features of climate change and variability. Based on these data, the snow cover area (SCA) in situ for the period 1982–2001 was further analyzed to examine the effect of climate change on snow. The results showed that both the temperature and precipitation had a jump in the mid 1980s and significantly increased in winter and summer, respectively. The SCA of the entire basin showed a slowly increasing trend. Responses of the SCA to temperature and precipitation in the northern, western and southern regions showed that the effect of precipitation on SCA is larger than that of temperature. In vertical direction, the SCA in the zone below 2,500 m a.s.l. kept a slow increase, but that in the zone above 2,500 m a.s.l. was inching down. Comparatively, the lower altitude zone was apt to be affected by precipitation, while the higher altitude zone tended to be influenced by temperature. The mid zone from 2,500 to 5,000 m was the area most sensitive to and affected by climate change. Compared with that in the 1980s, both the snowing and melting rates were higher in the 1990s. Correlation analysis implied that the SCA change in the cold season was positively correlated with the contemporary precipitation change, but had no strong correlation with the contemporary temperature change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Belle GV, Hughes JP (1984) Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality. Water Resour Res 20:127–136
Beniston M, Keller F, Koffi B et al (2003) Estimation of snow accumulation and volume in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions. Theor Appl Climatol 76:125–140
Brown R (2000) Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915–97. J Clim 13(13):2339–2355
Cui CX, Yang Q, Wang SL (2005a) Comparison analysis of the long-term variations of snow cover between mountain and plain areas in Xinjiang region from 1960 to 2003. J Glaciol Geocryol 27(4):486–490
Cui CX, Wei RQ, Li Y (2005b) Long-term change of seasonal snowcover and its effects on runoff volume in the upper reaches of the Tarim River. Arid Land Geogr 28(5):569–573
Foster J, Owe M, Rango A (1982) Snow cover and temperature relationship in North America and Eurasia. J Clim Appl Met 22:460–469
Frei A, Robinson DA (1999) Northern hemisphere snow extent:regional variability 1972–1994. Int J Climatol 19(14):1535–1560
Gleick PH (1987) Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmosphere CO2 and other trace gases. Clim Change 10:137–161
Groisman PY, Davies TD (2001) Snow cover and climate systems. In: Jones HG, Pomeroy JW, Walker DA, Hoham RW (eds) Snow ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–44
Groisman PY, Karl TR, Knight RW (1994) Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures. Science 263:198–200
Guo YJ, Zhai PM, Li W (2004) Snow cover in China, derived from NOAA satellite remote sensing and conventional observation. J Glaciol Geocryol 26(6):755–760
Hirsch RM, Alexander RB, Smith RA (1991) Selection of methods for the detection and estimation of trends in water quality. Water Resour Res 27(5):803–813
Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ (2001) Climate change 2001—The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, London, p 944
Hu RJ, Jiang FQ, Wang YJ et al (2002) A study on signals and effects of climatic pattern change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang. Arid Land Geogr 25(3):194–199
Hu CH, Wang YG, Guo QC et al (2005) Fluvial process and regulation of the main stem Tarim River. Science Press, Beijing, pp 24–25
IPCC (1995) IPCC second report of assessment of climate change. Cambridge University Press, London, p 16
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The third report of working group II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 22
Kamga FM (2001) Impact of greenhouses gas induced climate change on the runoff of the upper Benue River (Camernoon). J Hydrol 252:145–156
Kazuyuki S (2003) The potential role of snow cover in forcing interannual variability of the major Northern Hemisphere mode. Geophys Res Lett 30:35–38
Ke CQ, Li PJ (1998) Spatial and temporal characteristic of snow cover over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Acta Geogr Sin 53(3):209–215
Laternser M, Schneebeli M (2003) Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps (1931–99). Int J Climatol 23(7):733–750
Li PJ (1996) Response of Tibetan snow cover to global warming. Acta Geogr Sin 51(3):260–265
Li PJ (1998) Cryosphere fluctuation in the past century. J Glaciol Geocryol 10(2):105–116
Li PJ (2001) Response of Xinjiang snow cover to climate change. Acta Meteorol Sin 59(4):491–501
Li DL, Wei L, Cai Y et al (2003) The present facts and the future tendency of the climate change in northwest China. J Glaciol Geocryol 25(2):135–142
Liu SF, Han TB, Dang YG (1999) Theory and application of gray system. Science Publishing House, Beijing, pp 40–70
Liu SY, Ding YJ, Zhang Y et al (2006) Impact of the glacial change on water resources in the Tarim River basin. Acta Geogr Sin 61(5):482–490
Martin E, Brun E, Durand Y (1994) Sensitivity of the French Alps snow cover to the variation of climatic variables. Ann Geophys 12:469–477
Namias J (1985) Snow empirical evidence for the influence of snow cover on temperature and precipitation. Mon Wea Rev 113:1542–1553
Niu T, Chen LX, Wang W (2002) REOF analysis of climatic characteristics of winter temperature and humidity on Xizang-Qinghai Plateau. J Appl Meterol Sci 13(5):560–570
Robinson DA, Dewey KF (1990) Recent secular variations in the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Geoghys Res Lett 17(10):1557–1560
Shi YF, Shen YP, Li DL et al (2003) Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in northwest China. Quat Sci 23(2):152–164
Song YD, Fan ZL, Lei ZD et al (2000) Research on water resources and ecology of Tarim River, China. Xinjiang People’s Publishing House, Urumqi, pp 37–38
Wang NL, Yao TD (2001) Evidences for global warming in the 20th century from cryosphere. Adv Earth Sci 16(1):85–105
Wu SF, Zhang GW (2003) Preliminary approach on the floods and their calamity-changing tendency in Xinjiang region. J Glaciol Geocryol 25(2):199–203
Xu CY (2000) Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources in central Sweden. Water Resour Manage 14:177–189
Yang ZN (1991) Glacier water resources in China. Gansu Science and Technology Publishing House, Lanzhou, pp 140–141
Yang LM (2003) Climate change of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. Acta Geogr Sin 58(4):577–583
Yang XQ, Zhang LN (2001) An investigation of temporal and spatial variations of 1988∼ 1998 snow cover over the Northern hemisphere. Chin J Atmos Sci 25(6):755–766
Zhang JB, Shi YG (2002a) Research on climate change and short-term forecast in Xinjiang. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, p 58
Zhang LX, Wei WS (2002b) Variation trends of snow cover in the Middle Mountains of Western Tianshan and their relations to temperature and precipitation: take the Valley of Gongnaisi River as example. J Mt Sci 22(1):67–71
Acknowledgments
This work was jointly supported by the Key Project of Knowledge Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-127), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90502004 and 40671014), National Scientific and Technological Support Project (2006BAC01A03) and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB720201). We would like to acknowledge the help of them. Special thanks are owed to editors and anonymous reviewers whose detailed and constructive suggestions and comments helped to clarify and improve the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Changchun, X., Yaning, C., Weihong, L. et al. Potential impact of climate change on snow cover area in the Tarim River basin. Environ Geol 53, 1465–1474 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-0755-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-0755-1