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Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study

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Abstract

Using empirical analyses of the effects of global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) on the survival and calcification of early life stages of Pocillopora damicornis, we employed a demographic approach to forecast the consequences of GCC and OA on the population dynamics of this coral. We constructed a size-based demographic model using life-history tables and transition probabilities for a population in Southern Taiwan, and projected the population structure over ~100 yr under scenarios of warming and acidification. The simulations incorporated stochastic variability of the parameters (±5 %), decline in larval survival due to increases in temperature and pCO2, modified growth rates due to rising temperature, and larval input from distant populations. In a closed population, an increase of pCO2 from 40.5 to 91.2 Pa reduces density, and an increase in temperature from 26 to 29 °C results in population extirpation within 100 yr. With a larval supply of 10 % from distant populations, the population persisted regardless of high temperature (+3 °C). These results indicate that: (1) populations of P. damicornis may be resistant to GCC and OA so long as it persists as part of a metapopulation capable of supplying larvae from spatially separated populations and (2) early life stages can regulate the population dynamics of P. damicornis.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded through the US National Science Foundation (BIO-OCE 08-44785) and contributes to the collaboration supported under the Memorandum of Understanding between California State University, Northridge (CSUN), USA, and National Dong Hwa University, Shoufeng, Taiwan. We are grateful to NMMBA staff who made this research possible and to S. Zamudio and A. Ninokawa who assisted with fieldwork and larval release measurements. Thanks to K Guizien for precious advices on MATLAB scripts. This is contribution number 224 of the marine biology program of CSUN.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, California State University, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA, 91330-8303, USA

    L. Bramanti & P. J. Edmunds

  2. Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Ecogéochimie des Environnements Benthiques (LECOB UMR8222), Observatoire Océanologique, 66650, Banyuls/Mer, France

    L. Bramanti

  3. Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Via Sommarive 14, 38050, Povo, Trento, Italy

    M. Iannelli

  4. National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan, People’s Republic of China

    T. Y. Fan

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  1. L. Bramanti
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Correspondence to L. Bramanti.

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Bramanti, L., Iannelli, M., Fan, T.Y. et al. Using demographic models to project the effects of climate change on scleractinian corals: Pocillopora damicornis as a case study. Coral Reefs 34, 505–515 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-015-1269-z

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