Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This is a study of the annual and interannual variability of regional rainfall produced by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies/Center for Ocean, Land and Atmospheric Studies (CPTEC/COLA) atmospheric global climate model. An evaluation is made of a 9-member ensemble run of the model forced by observed global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the 10-year period 1982–1991. The Brier skill score and, Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used to assess the predictability of rainfall and to validate rainfall simulations, in several regions world wide. In general, the annual cycle of precipitation is well simulated by the model for several continental and oceanic regions in the tropics and mid latitudes. Interannual variability of rainfall during the peak rainy season is realistically simulated in Northeast Brazil, Amazonia, central Chile, and southern Argentina–Uruguay, Eastern Africa, and tropical Pacific regions, where the model shows good skill. Some regions, such as northwest Peru–Ecuador, and southern Brazil exhibit a realistic simulation of rainfall anomalies associated with extreme El Niño warming conditions, while in years with neutral or La Niña conditions, the agreement between observed and simulated rainfall anomalies is not always present. In the monsoon regions of the world and in southern Africa, even though the model reproduces the annual cycle of rainfall, the skill of the model is low for the simulation of the interannual variability. This is indicative of mechanisms other than the external SST forcing, such as the effect of land–surface moisture and snow feedbacks or the representation of sub-grid scale processes, indicating the important role of factors other than external boundary forcing. The model captures the well-known signatures of rainfall anomalies of El Niño in 1982–83 and 1986–87, indicating its sensitivity to strong external forcing. In normal years, internal climate variability can affect the predictability of climate in some regions, especially in monsoon areas of the world.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2a–p.
Fig. 3a–p.
Fig. 4a–p.
Fig. 5a–d.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barnett T (1995) Monte Carlo climate forecasting. J Clim 8: 1005–1022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basu B (2001) Simulation of the summer monsoon over India in the ensemble of seasonal simulations from the ECMWF reanalyzed data. J Clim 14: 1440–1449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brankovic C, Molteni F (1997) Sensitivity of the ECMWF model northern winter climate to model formulation. Clim Dyn 13: 75–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brankovic C, Palmer T, Ferranti L (1994) Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J Clim 7: 217–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buizza R, Hollingsworth A, Lalaurette F, Ghelli A (1999) Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Weather Forecast 14: 169–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Cavalcanti IFA, Marengo JA, Camargo H, Castro CC, Sanches MB, Sampaio GO (2000) Climate prediction of precipitation for the Nordeste rainy season of MAM 2000. Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin 9(1): 49–52

  • Cavalcanti IFA, Marengo JA, Satyamurty P, Trosnikov I, Bonatti JP, Nobre CA, D'Almeida C, Sampaio G, Cunningham CAC, Camargo H, Sanches MB (2002) Global climatological features in a simulation using CPTEC/COLA AGCM. J Clim 15: 2965–2988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costa MH, Foley JA (2000) Combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia. J Clim 13: 35–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enfield D, Mayer DA (1997) Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Geophys Res 102: 929–945

    Google Scholar 

  • Enfield D, Alfaro EJ (1999) The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interactions of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. J Clim 12: 2093–2103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folland C, Colman A, Rowell D, Davey M (2001) Predictability of Northeast Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill, 1987–98. J Clim 14: 1937–1958

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garreaud R, Rutllant J (1996) Análisis meteorológico de los aluviones de Antofagasta y Santiago de Chile en el periodo 1991–93. Atmósfera 9: 251–271

  • Gates WL, Boyle JS, Covey C, Dease CG, Doutriaux CM, Drach RS, Florino M, Gleckler P, Hnilo JJ, Marlais SM, Phillips TJ, Potter GL, Santer BD, Sperber KS, Taylor KE, Williams DN (1999) An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80: 29–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Graham N (1999) The importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and Southern Africa. J Geophys Res 104: 19,099–19,116

    Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Mason S (2002) Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to ersisted SST anomalies. Clim Dyn 19: 619–632

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Mason S, Zebiak S, Ropelewski C, Basher R, Cane MA (2001) Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions. Int J Climatol 21: 1111–1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BV (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11: 501–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm A, Teleginsky S, Freitas EED (1996) Anomalias de precipitação no Sul do Brasil em eventos El Niño. In: Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 1996, Campos de Jordão, SP, Anais, Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia, Brasil, (in Portuguese)

  • Grimm A, Barros V, Doyle M (2000) Climate variability in Southern South America Associated to El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13: 25–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen JE, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lacis A, Asamoah K, Borenstein S, Brown E, Cairns B, Caliri G, Campbell M, Curran B, deCastro S, Druyan L, Fox M, Johnson C, Lerner J, McCormick MP, Miller R, Minnis P, Morrison A, Pandolfo L, Ramberran I, Zaucker F, Robinson M, Russell P, Shah K, Stone P, Tegen I, Thomason L, Wilder J, Wilson H (1996) A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. In: Fiocco G, Fua Visconti G (eds) The Mount Pinatubo eruption: effects on the atmosphere and climate. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, pp 233–272

  • Harzallah A, Sadourny R (1995) Internal versus SST-forced atmospheric variability as simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 3: 436–459

    Google Scholar 

  • Hastenrath S, Heller L (1977) Dynamics of climatic hazards in northeast Brazil. Q J R Meteorol Soc 103: 77–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW, Hack JJ, Boville BA, Willianson DL, Kiehl JT (1998) The dynamical simulation of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). J Clim 11: 1207–1236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinter III J, DE Witt D, Dirmeyer P, Fennessy M, Kirtman B, Marx L, Schneider E, Shukla J, Straus D (1997) The COLA atmosphere–biosphere general circulation model. Vol I: formulation. COLA Tech. Report 51, COLA.4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302. Calverton, MD, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Koster R, Suarez MJ, Heiser M (2000) Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. J Hydrometeorol 1: 26–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Hoerling M, Ji M, Leetma A, Sardeshmukh P (1996) Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions. J Clim 9: 115–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Barnston A, Hoerling M (2001) Seasonal predictions, probabilistic verifications, and ensemble size. J Clim 14: 1671–1676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz E (1973) On the existence of extended range predictability. J Appl Meteorol 12: 543–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magaña V, Perez JL, Conde C (1998) El Niño and its impacts on Mexico. Ciencias, School of Sciences, UNAM, Mexico

  • Mao J, Robock A (1998) Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors. J Clim 11: 1538–1552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marengo JA (1992) Interannual variability of surface climate in the Amazon basin. Int J Climatol 12: 853–863

    Google Scholar 

  • Marengo JA, Druyan L (1994) Validation of model improvements for the GISS GCM. Clim Dyn 10: 163–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marengo JA, Nobre CA (2001) The hydroclimatological framework in Amazônia. In: Richey J, McClaine M, Victoria R (eds) Biogeochemistry of Amazônia, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK pp 17–42

  • Marengo JA, Miller JL, Russell G, Rosenzweig C, Abramopoulos F (1994) Calculations of river-runoff in the GISS GCM: impacts of a new-land surface parameterization and runoff routing model on the hydrology of the Amazon basin. Clim Dyn 10: 349–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason S, Graham N (1999) Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics and relative operating levels. Weather Forecast 14: 713–725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason S, Goddard L, Graham N, Yulaeva E, Sun L, Arkin P (1999) The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80: 1853–1873

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuyama H, Masuda K (1998) Seasonal and interannual variations of soil moisture in the former USSR and its relationship to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 11: 652–658

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moura AD, Shukla J (1981) On the dynamics of the droughts in Northeast Brazil: observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J Atmos Sci 38: 2653–2673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nobre P, Shukla J (1996) Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J Clim 9: 2464–2479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poveda G, Mesa O (1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale oceanic–atmosphere phenomena. J Clim 10: 2690–2702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds R, Smith T (1994) Improved global seas surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J Clim 929–948

  • Rocha EP (2001) Balanço de umidade e a influencia das condições superficiais na precipitação da Amazonia (In Portuguses). PhD Thesis, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Jose dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil pp 210

  • Rocha A, Simmonds I (1997) Interannual variability of southeastern African summer rainfall. Part I: relationships with air–sea interaction processes. Int J Climatol 17: 235–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rowell D, Folland C, Maskell K, Ward M (1995) Variability of summer monsoon rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906–92): observations and modeling. Q J R Meteorol Soc 12: 1669–1704

    Google Scholar 

  • Semazzi FHM, Mheta V, Sud YC (1988) An investigation on the relationships between Sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures. Atmos Ocean 26: 118–138

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J (1998) Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science 282: 728–731

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J, Paolino DA, Straus DM, De Witt D, Fennessy M, Kinter III JL, Marx L, Mo R (2000a) Dynamical seasonal prediction with the COLA atmospheric model. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126: 2265–2291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J, Anderson J, Baumhefner D, Brankovic C, Chang Y, Kalnay E, Marx L, Palmer TN, Paolino D, Ploshay H, Schubert S, Straus D, Suarez M, Tribbia J (2000b) Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81: 2594–2606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sontakke NA, Pant GB, Singh N (1993) Construction of All-India summer rainfall for the period 1844–1991. J Clim 187: 1807–1811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber K, Palmer T (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J Clim 9: 2727–2750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber K, Participant AMIP Modelling Groups (1999a) Are revised models better models? A skill assessment of regional interannual climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 26: 1267–1270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sperber K, Slingo J, Annamalai H (1999b) A common mode of subseasonal and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon. CLIVAR-Exchanges 4: 4–7

  • Stern W, Miyakoda K (1995) Feasibility of seasonal forecasts inferred from multiple GCM simulations. J Clim 8: 1071–1085

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Storch HV, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, pp 484

  • Thiaw W, Barnston AG, Kumar V (1999) Predictions of African rainfall on the seasonal time scale. J Geophys Res 104: 31,583–31,597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uvo CB, Repelli C, Zebiak SE, Kushnir Y (1998) the relationships between tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST in northeast Brazil monthly precipitation. J Clim 13: 287–293

    Google Scholar 

  • Wagner R (1996) Decadal-scale trends in mechanisms controlling meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Atlantic. J Geophys Res 101: 16,683–16,694

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward NM (1998) Diagnosis and short-lead prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa and interannual and multidecadal time scales. J Clim 12: 3167–3191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weare BC (1979) A statistical study of the relationship between ocean temperature and Indian monsoon. J Atmos Sci 36: 2279–2291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-yr monthly analysis based on gauged observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78: 2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin P (1998) Global monthly precipitation estimates from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation. J Clim 11: 137–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng X, Fredericksen C (1999) Validating interannual climate variability in an ensemble of AGCM simulations. J Clim 12: 2386–2396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers FW (1996) Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Clim Dyn 12: 825–847

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements.

Some of the authors (JM, IFAC, PS, IT, CD) were partially supported by the Brazilian Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq). We thank NCAR for providing access to the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, and to Ping Ping Xie for providing the CMAP rainfall data sets. Thanks also to IAI/CRN055/PROSUL for partially funding this research and to Lisa Goddard for her valuable comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC). Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 12630-000 Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    J. A. Marengo, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, P. Satyamurty, I. Trosnikov, C. A. Nobre, J. P. Bonatti, H. Camargo, G. Sampaio, M. B. Sanches, A. O. Manzi, C. A. C. Castro, C. D'Almeida, L. P. Pezzi & L. Candido

Authors
  1. J. A. Marengo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. I. F. A. Cavalcanti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. P. Satyamurty
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. I. Trosnikov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. C. A. Nobre
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. J. P. Bonatti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. H. Camargo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. G. Sampaio
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. M. B. Sanches
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. A. O. Manzi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. C. A. C. Castro
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. C. D'Almeida
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. L. P. Pezzi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. L. Candido
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. A. Marengo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Marengo, J.A., Cavalcanti, I.F.A., Satyamurty, P. et al. Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM. Climate Dynamics 21, 459–475 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0346-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0346-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation