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Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE

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Abstract

We carry out climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880–2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.

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Acknowledgments

Data that we use for recent greenhouse gas amounts are from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, where we are particularly indebted to Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka, and Jim Elkins for up-to-date data. We thank Ellen Baum, Tom Boden, Curt Covey, Oleg Dubovik, Hans Gilgen, Danny Harvey, Brent Holben, Phil Jones, John Lanzante, Judith Lean, Forrest Mims, Bill Randel, Eric Rignot for data and helpful suggestions, and Darnell Cain for technical assistance. Research support from Hal Harvey of the Hewlett Foundation, Gerry Lenfest, and NASA Earth Science Research Division managers Jack Kaye, Don Anderson, Waleed Abdalati, Phil DeCola, Tsengdar Lee, and Eric Lindstrom is gratefully acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY, USA

    J. Hansen, A. Lacis, R. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, G. Russell, V. Canuto, A. Del Genio, T. Hall, N. Y. Kiang, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell & S. Sun

  2. Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA

    J. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, L. Nazarenko, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, M. Chandler, G. Faluvegi, J. Jonas, D. Koch, J. Lerner, Ju. Perlwitz, N. Unger & S. Zhang

  3. Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA

    R. Ruedy, K. Lo, Y. Cheng, V. Oinas, R. Schmunk, N. Tausnev & M. Yao

  4. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    A. Lacis, G. A. Schmidt, A. Del Genio, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell & D. Thresher

  5. Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    R. Miller, B. Cairns, T. Hall & Ja. Perlwitz

  6. Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA

    E. Baum & A. Cohen

  7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    E. Fleming, C. Jackman & G. Labow

  8. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France

    A. Friend & M. Kelley

  9. Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

    D. Koch

  10. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA

    S. Menon & T. Novakov

  11. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

    P. Stone & S. Sun

  12. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA

    D. Streets

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  1. J. Hansen
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Correspondence to J. Hansen.

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Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R. et al. Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS modelE. Clim Dyn 29, 661–696 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8

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