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Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability

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Abstract

The performance of the new multi-model seasonal prediction system developed in the frame work of the ENSEMBLES EU project for the seasonal forecasts of India summer monsoon variability is compared with the results from the previous EU project, DEMETER. We have considered the results of six participating ocean-atmosphere coupled models with 9 ensemble members each for the common period of 1960–2005 with May initial conditions. The ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble (MME) results show systematic biases in the representation of mean monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Indian region, which are similar to that of DEMETER. The ENSEMBLES coupled models are characterized by an excessive oceanic forcing on the atmosphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The skill of the seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the ENSEMBLES MME has however improved significantly compared to the DEMETER MME. Its performance in the drought years like 1972, 1974, 1982 and the excess year of 1961 was in particular better than the DEMETER MME. The ENSEMBLES MME could not capture the recent weakening of the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship resulting in a decrease in the prediction skill compared to the “perfect model” skill during the recent years. The ENSEMBLES MME however correctly captures the north Atlantic-Indian monsoon teleconnections, which are independent of ENSO.

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Acknowledgments

We are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their critical and detailed comments which helped us to improve the quality of the paper. The ENSEMBLES data used in this work was funded by the EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539) whose support is gratefully acknowledged.

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  1. National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, 517112, India

    M. Rajeevan & C. K. Unnikrishnan

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    B. Preethi

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  1. M. Rajeevan
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  2. C. K. Unnikrishnan
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Rajeevan, M., Unnikrishnan, C.K. & Preethi, B. Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 38, 2257–2274 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x

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