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Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño

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Abstract

The epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming in the context of mid-1970s regime shift is investigated in this study. El Niño induced warming is delayed by one season in the northern TIO during epoch-2 (post mid-1970) and southern TIO during epoch-1 (pre mid-1970). Significant spatiotemporal changes in TIO (especially in the north) warming are apparent during the developing phase of El Niño. The ocean dynamics is the major driver in the basin wide warming during epoch-2 whereas heat fluxes are the dominant processes during epoch-1. Strong coupling between thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in epoch-2 indicates that El Niño induced oceanic changes are very significant in the seasonal evolution of basin-wide warming. The thermocline-SST coupling is strengthened by the upward propagating subsurface warming in epoch-2. The westward propagating barrier layer over southern TIO supports persistence of warm SST (over southwest TIO in epoch-2), which in turn induce spring asymmetric mode in winds and precipitation. The asymmetric wind pattern and persistent subsidence over maritime continent are primarily responsible for stronger spring warming in epoch-2. The strong east equatorial Indian Ocean cooling in epoch-2 is mainly driven by coastal upwelling over Java–Sumatra coast, whereas in epoch-1 the weak cooling is controlled by the latent heat flux. The spatiotemporal changes in TIO SST warming and their evolution have strong impact on atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution over the Indian Oceanic rim through local air–sea interaction.

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Acknowledgments

Soumi acknowledges the support of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India for Research Fellowship. We thank Prof. B. N Goswami, Director IITM for support. The comments from two anonymous reviewers have helped us to improve the manuscript. ERSST data is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA. Figures are prepared in ferret.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    Soumi Chakravorty, J. S. Chowdary & C. Gnanaseelan

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  1. Soumi Chakravorty
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Correspondence to C. Gnanaseelan.

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Chakravorty, S., Chowdary, J.S. & Gnanaseelan, C. Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño. Clim Dyn 42, 805–822 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1666-3

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