Abstract
Quality controlled and recently homogenised mean sea level pressure records for the South Pacific are used to specify the location and variability of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) during the austral warm season (November–April). The SPCZ is the world’s largest rainfall band during the austral summer, when it dominates the climate of the South Pacific. A new index called the South Pacific convergence zone index (SPCZI) is derived, and is shown to be coherent with changes in low level wind convergence associated with the SPCZ. This index replaces the earlier SPCZ position index because it uses higher quality mean sea level pressure data than the superseded index and extends the time series further forward in time. The SPCZI allows interannual to decadal variability in the climate of the South Pacific to be tracked for more than a century from 1910/1911 to 2011/2012. During El Niño episodes the SPCZ is displaced by about 1°–3° east, and La Niña events 1°–3° west of the mean position on average. The index indicates a striking movement eastward for the period 1977/78–1998/99, compared with 1944/45–1976/77 in association with the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). The eastward movement of the SPCZ in the late twentieth century is related to significant precipitation trends in the South Pacific region. Since 1998/99 the SPCZ has regressed westward with the negative phase change of the IPO. The long-term trend in the SPCZI is very small relative to the interannual to decadal variability and is not statistically significant, suggesting that there has been little overall change in the mean position of the SPCZ over the past century.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program, a program supported by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education, and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). We thank the Fiji Meteorological Service, the Samoa Meteorological Division, Howard Diamond (NOAA) and the Pago Pago National Weather Service for kindly providing data used in this study. We also thank Jo Brown and Brad Murphy for helpful comments on an earlier draft, Chris Folland for the revised draft and Christine Chung for producing Fig. 3.
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Appendix
Appendix
November–April South Pacific convergence zone index (SPCZI) using the normalised pressure difference (*10) between Apia and Suva, 1910/11–2011/12. The 1933–1992 period was used for standardization.
1911 | −11.4 | 1959 | 1.9 | 2007 | 1.4 |
1912 | 2.4 | 1960 | −4.6 | 2008 | −8.9 |
1913 | −3.6 | 1961 | −2.4 | 2009 | −4.7 |
1914 | 2.2 | 1962 | −8.3 | 2010 | 6.6 |
1915 | 15.1 | 1963 | −1.2 | 2011 | −0.7 |
1916 | −9.5 | 1964 | 0.7 | 2012 | −6.7 |
1917 | −5.8 | 1965 | −7.8 | ||
1918 | −2.2 | 1966 | 8.0 | ||
1919 | 11.9 | 1967 | −2.4 | ||
1920 | −0.5 | 1968 | 0.6 | ||
1921 | −8.7 | 1969 | 1.8 | ||
1922 | 1.1 | 1970 | 2.3 | ||
1923 | −5.4 | 1971 | −9.1 | ||
1924 | 1.6 | 1972 | −7.6 | ||
1925 | −6.0 | 1973 | 6.7 | ||
1926 | 22.2 | 1974 | −6.6 | ||
1927 | 7.5 | 1975 | −5.7 | ||
1928 | 2.5 | 1976 | −13.0 | ||
1929 | −2.5 | 1977 | −1.8 | ||
1930 | −2.7 | 1978 | 4.8 | ||
1931 | 8.1 | 1979 | 1.9 | ||
1932 | 2.1 | 1980 | 2.2 | ||
1933 | −3.5 | 1981 | 3.1 | ||
1934 | −0.9 | 1982 | −4.0 | ||
1935 | 2.0 | 1983 | 11.1 | ||
1936 | 4.2 | 1984 | −2.7 | ||
1937 | 1.6 | 1985 | 0.8 | ||
1938 | 7.2 | 1986 | 3.2 | ||
1939 | −7.0 | 1987 | 11.2 | ||
1940 | 15.3 | 1988 | −1.8 | ||
1941 | 17.9 | 1989 | −8.2 | ||
1942 | 13.6 | 1990 | 7.4 | ||
1943 | 1.7 | 1991 | −1.7 | ||
1944 | −3.9 | 1992 | 15.4 | ||
1945 | 4.0 | 1993 | 17.6 | ||
1946 | 0.8 | 1994 | 6.9 | ||
1947 | 2.4 | 1995 | 5.5 | ||
1948 | −6.5 | 1996 | 1.2 | ||
1949 | −7.6 | 1997 | 10.7 | ||
1950 | −9.5 | 1998 | 23.9 | ||
1951 | −9.9 | 1999 | 0.8 | ||
1952 | 3.2 | 2000 | 0.7 | ||
1953 | −4.1 | 2001 | 1.8 | ||
1954 | 0.8 | 2002 | −2.2 | ||
1955 | −5.4 | 2003 | −1.7 | ||
1956 | −9.2 | 2004 | 6.6 | ||
1957 | −9.7 | 2005 | 6.2 | ||
1958 | 7.3 | 2006 | 1.5 |
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Salinger, M.J., McGree, S., Beucher, F. et al. A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11–2011/2012. Clim Dyn 43, 881–892 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y