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Multi-annual variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya

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Abstract

Winter westerly disturbances (WWD) are the primary climatic influence within High Mountain Asia during the boreal winter. Here we investigate variations and changes in WWD over the period 1979–2010 and relationships with heavy (85th percentile) precipitation in the Karakoram/western Himalaya (KH) and central Himalaya (CH) using multiple datasets. We show that heavy precipitation events occurring in the KH and CH are often spatiotemporally independent, suggesting differing behavior of WWD affecting each region. The wavelet power spectrum of 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies is used to characterize the frequency and magnitude of individual disturbances and to distinguish synoptic scale variability through time. Our analysis exhibits an enhancement in the strength and frequency of WWD in the KH and indicates an increase in local heavy precipitation events. In contrast, the CH is observed to experience weakening influence of these disturbances and consequently, a decrease in heavy precipitation. Furthermore, we investigate multi-annual variability of WWD and teleconnections with some known modes of climate variability affecting central Asia, including the Arctic Oscillation, Eurasian/Polar Pattern, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Siberian High. Although there is clear evidence that these modes affect circulation and precipitation in High Mountain Asia, their competing influences on WWD are complex and non-linear. These results suggest that a thorough understanding of WWD and their spatiotemporal variations are crucial to improve our knowledge of the hydrologic cycle within High Mountain Asia as well as our ability to project the future status of Asia’s water resources.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program, from the National Science Foundation (NSF award-AGS 1116105) and by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant Number 13-EARTH13F-26). The CFSR data used in this research were developed by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and provided by NCAR. APHRODITE Water Resources project is supported by Environment Research & Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. TRMM data were acquired by an international joint project sponsored by the Japan National Space Development Agency (NASDA) and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Office of Earth Science. The Authors would also like to thank Dr. George Kiladis and Dr. Rodrigo Bombardi for their help throughout this project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA

    Forest Cannon, Leila M. V. Carvalho, Charles Jones & Bodo Bookhagen

  2. Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

    Leila M. V. Carvalho, Charles Jones & Bodo Bookhagen

Authors
  1. Forest Cannon
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  2. Leila M. V. Carvalho
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  3. Charles Jones
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  4. Bodo Bookhagen
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Correspondence to Forest Cannon.

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Cannon, F., Carvalho, L.M.V., Jones, C. et al. Multi-annual variations in winter westerly disturbance activity affecting the Himalaya. Clim Dyn 44, 441–455 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2248-8

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