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Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?

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Abstract

Dynamic Regional Climate Models (RCMs) work at fine resolution for a limited region and hence they are presumed to simulate regional climate better than General Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulations by RCMs are used for impacts assessment, often without any evaluation. There is a growing debate on the added value made by the regional models to the projections of GCMs specifically for the regions like, United States and Europe. Evaluation of RCMs for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been overlooked in literature, though there are few disjoint studies on Indian monsoon extremes and biases. Here we present a comprehensive study on the evaluations of RCMs for the ISMR with all its important characteristics such as northward and eastward propagation, onset, seasonal rainfall patterns, intra-seasonal oscillations, spatial variability and patterns of extremes. We evaluate nine regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and compare them with their host Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 GCM projections. We do not find any consistent improvement in the RCM simulations with respect to their host GCMs for any of the characteristics of Indian monsoon except the spatial variation. We also find that the simulations of the ISMR characteristics by a good number of RCMs, are worse than those of their host GCMs. No consistent added value is observed in the RCM simulations of changes in ISMR characteristics over recent periods, compared to past; though there are few exceptions. These results highlight the need for proper evaluation before utilizing regional models for impacts assessment and subsequent policy making for sustainable climate change adaptation.

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Acknowledgments

Authors sincerely acknowledge Department of Science and Technology, Government of India and Climate Studies, IIT Bombay for providing assistance through project 11DST078. Authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP5 and climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model outputs. Authors acknowledge the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR-IITM) for RegCM4 and partner institutions (Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences (IAES), Germany for COSMO-CLM; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden for RCA4; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) for CCAM) for generating and disseminating the CORDEX South Asia multi-model dataset. Authors acknowledge Dr. J Sanjay, Dr. R Krishnan and Dr. Milind Mujumdar for providing their assistance in downloading CORDEX data. The first two authors acknowledge Dr. Sabeerali C T from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology for assistance in simulating northward and eastward propagation of intra-seasonal variations. The authors sincerely thank Prof. Raghu Murtugudde of University of Maryland for his constructive suggestions and comments. The authors sincerely thank Mr. Marcus Thatcher of CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere for providing information of physical parameterization schemes used in CCAM model.

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  1. Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India

    Swati Singh, Subimal Ghosh & Subhankar Karmakar

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India

    Subimal Ghosh & A. S. Sahana

  3. Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India

    H. Vittal & Subhankar Karmakar

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  1. Swati Singh
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Singh, S., Ghosh, S., Sahana, A.S. et al. Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?. Clim Dyn 48, 1375–1397 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3147-y

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