Abstract
The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alloway B, Neall VE, Vucetich CG (1995) Late quaternary (post 28,000 year BP) tephrostratigraphy of northeast and central Taranaki, New Zealand. J R Soc NZ 25:385–458
Bacon CR (1982) Time-predictable bimodal volcanism in the Coso range, California. Geology 10:65–69
Bebbington MS, Lai CD (1996a) On nonhomogeneous models for volcanic eruptions. Math Geol 28:585–600
Bebbington MS, Lai CD (1996b) Statistical analysis of New Zealand volcanic occurrence data. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 74:101-110
Bronk-Ramsay C (2003) Oxcal program v. 3.10: Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit, Oxford, UK
Carta S, Figari R, Sartoris G, Sassi R, Scandone R (1981) A statistical model for Vesuvius and its volcanological implications. Bull Volcanol 44:129–151
Connor CB, Hill BE (1995) Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. J Geophys Res 100:10107–10125
Cronin SJ, Bebbington MS, Lai CD (2001) A probabilistic assessment of eruption recurrence on Taveuni volcano, Fiji. Bull Volcanol 63:274–288
Cronin SJ, Stewart RB, Neall VE, Platz T, Gaylord D (2003) The AD1040 to present Maero Eruptive Period of Egmont Volcano, Taranaki, New Zealand. Geol Soc NZ Misc Publ 116A:43
De la Cruz-Reyna S (1991) Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity. Bull Volcanol 54:57–67
Druce AP (1966) Tree ring dating of recent volcanic ash and lapilli, Mt. Egmont. NZ J Bot 4:3–41
Eden DN, Froggatt PC (1996) A 6500-year-old history of tephra deposition recorded in the sediments of Lake Tutira, eastern North Island, New Zealand. Quat Int 34:55–64
Fergusson GJ, Rafter TA (1957) New Zealand C14 measurements—3. NZ J Sci Technol B38:732–749
Fritsch FN, Carlson RE (1980) Monotone piecewise cubic interpolation. SIAM J Numer Anal 17:238–246
Ho CH, Smith EI (1998) A spatial-temporal/3-D model for volcanic hazard assessment: application to the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada. Math Geol 30:497–510
Grant-Taylor TL, Rafter TA (1971) New Zealand radiocarbon measurements—6. NZ J Geol Geophys 14:364–402
Lees CM, Neall VE (1993) Vegetation response to volcanic eruptions on Egmont Volcano, New Zealand, during the last 1500 years. J R Soc NZ 23:91–127
McGlone MS, Neall VE (1994) The late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation history of Taranaki, North Island, New Zealand. NZ J Bot 32:251–269
McGlone MS, Neall VE, Clarkson BD (1988) The effects of recent volcanic events and climate changes on vegetation of Mt Egmont (Mt Taranaki), New Zealand. NZ J Bot 26:123–144
Neall VE (1979) Sheets P19, P20 and P21 New Plymouth, Egmont and Manaia, 1st edn. In: ‘Geological Map of New Zealand 1:50 000.’NZ DSIR, Wellington, New Zealand (scale 1:50 000, 3 sheets, pp 36 text)
Neall VE (1999) Stony River at the Blue Rata Reserve. Report to the Taranaki Regional Council, Taranaki, p 13
Neall VE, Stewart RB, Smith IEM (1986) History and Petrology of the Taranaki Volcanoes. Bull R Soc NZ 23:251–263
Nishenko SP, Buland R (1987) A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting. Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:1382–1399
Price RC, Stewart RB, Woodhead JD, Smith IEM (1999) Petrogenesis of high-K arc magmas: evidence from Egmont Volcano, North Island, New Zealand. J Petrol 40:167–197
Price RC, Gamble JA, Smith IEM, Stewart RB, Eggins S, Wright IC (2005) An integrated model for the temporal evolution of andesites and rhyolites and crustal development in New Zealand’s North Island. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 140:1–24
Platz T, Cronin SJ, Stewart RB, Smith IEM, Foley SF (2006) Magma changes during ascent and its impact on eruptive style: a study from Mt. Taranaki andesites, New Zealand. Geophys Res Abstr 8:00514
Rhoades DA, Dowrick DJ, Wilson CJN (2002) Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo Volcano. Nat Hazards 26:147–174
Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Gasperini P (2005) Some insights on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). Geophys J Int 163:1203–1218
Shane P (2005) Towards a comprehensive distal andesitic tephrostratigraphic framework for New Zealand based on eruptions from Egmont volcano. J Quat Sci 20:45–57
Stewart RB, Price RC, Smith IEM (1996) Evolution of high-K arc magma, Egmont volcano, Taranaki, New Zealand: evidence from mineral chemistry. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 74:275–295
Stuiver M, Pearson GW (1992) Calibration of the 14C time scale 2500–5000 BC. In: Taylor RE, Long A, Kra RJ (eds) Radiocarbon dating after 4 decades: an interdisciplinary perspective. Springer, New York, pp 19–33
Acknowledgements
SJC and MB are supported by the NZ Foundation for Research Science and Technology contract MAUX401. MT and TP thank the Massey Doctoral Scholarship Committee and the George Mason Trust. We are grateful to Mr. and Mrs. Rumball for access to Lake Umutekai and Ms. S. Grant for laboratory assistance. We thank reviewers J. Eliasson, A. Belusov and editor J. White for their helpful and constructive comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Editorial responsibility: JDL White
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Turner, M.B., Cronin, S.J., Bebbington, M.S. et al. Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. Bull Volcanol 70, 507–515 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0151-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-007-0151-4