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Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind

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Abstract

This study develops a probability-based methodology to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. A wind speed frequency model and flood frequency analysis, including various distribution types and uncertainties in their parameters, are presented. Furthermore, dam overtopping probabilities based on monthly maximum (MMax) series models are compared with those of the annual maximum (AMax) series models. An efficient sampling scheme, which is a combination of importance sampling (IS) and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) methods, is proposed to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.

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Acknowledgments

This study was carried out under the project (Grant No. NSC 92-2211-E-002-255) by the institutional and financial support from National Science Council (NSC), Taiwan. The first author would like to acknowledge the scholarship (Application No. 0499862) sponsored by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology for the opportunity to pursue this research there.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Disaster Prevention and Water Environment Research Center, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan

    Yung-Chia Hsu

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong

    Yeou-Koung Tung

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

    Jan-Tai Kuo

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  1. Yung-Chia Hsu
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  2. Yeou-Koung Tung
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  3. Jan-Tai Kuo
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Correspondence to Yung-Chia Hsu.

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Hsu, YC., Tung, YK. & Kuo, JT. Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 25, 35–49 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0435-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0435-7

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