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Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff

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Abstract

Particular attention is given to the reliability of hydrological modelling results. The accuracy of river runoff projection depends on the selected set of hydrological model parameters, emission scenario and global climate model. The aim of this article is to estimate the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters, to perform sensitivity analysis of the runoff projections, as well as the contribution analysis of uncertainty sources (model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models) in forecasting Lithuanian river runoff. The impact of model parameters on the runoff modelling results was estimated using a sensitivity analysis for the selected hydrological periods (spring flood, winter and autumn flash floods, and low water). During spring flood the results of runoff modelling depended on the calibration parameters that describe snowmelt and soil moisture storage, while during the low water period—the parameter that determines river underground feeding was the most important. The estimation of climate change impact on hydrological processes in the Merkys and Neris river basins was accomplished through the combination of results from A1B, A2 and B1 emission scenarios and global climate models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3). The runoff projections of the thirty-year periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) were conducted applying the HBV software. The uncertainties introduced by hydrological model parameters, emission scenarios and global climate models were presented according to the magnitude of the expected changes in Lithuanian rivers runoff. The emission scenarios had much greater influence on the runoff projection than the global climate models. The hydrological model parameters had less impact on the reliability of the modelling results.

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Acknowledgments

The research described in this paper was supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) action ES0901 “European procedures for flood frequency estimation”. Special thanks to Prof. Sten Bergstrom (SMHI, Sweden) who allows us to use the HBV model for the evaluation of climate impact on the changes of the Lithuanian river runoff and to Dr. Deborah Lawrence (NVE, Norway), who gave us many useful advices on the understanding of the uncertainty in runoff modelling. The authors also thank Dr. Egidijus Rimkus and Dr. Justas Kažys (Vilnius University, Lithuania) for the data on climate scenarios of the Lithuanian territory.

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  1. Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos Str. 3, 44403, Kaunas, Lithuania

    Jurate Kriauciuniene, Darius Jakimavicius, Diana Sarauskiene & Tadas Kaliatka

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  1. Jurate Kriauciuniene
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  2. Darius Jakimavicius
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  3. Diana Sarauskiene
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  4. Tadas Kaliatka
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Correspondence to Jurate Kriauciuniene.

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Kriauciuniene, J., Jakimavicius, D., Sarauskiene, D. et al. Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27, 769–784 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0608-7

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