Abstract
This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk attitudes of the states. This research is different from other studies regarding the Caspian Sea negotiations in that it employs risk-based fuzzy multi attribute decision making methods for simulating the risk attitudes or optimism/pessimism degrees of the decision makers. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) approach, which considers the optimism/pessimism degree quantitatively, is used to take into account the effects of different risk attitudes of the negotiators on the final outcome. We demonstrate how one could obtain a range of alternatives under different multi attribute and risk attitudes. The induced OWA (IOWA) method is also used to determine the relative power of these states bordering the Caspian Sea by considering several attributes, including different risk attitudes of agents. Results indicate that taking into account the risk attitude (prone, neutral, averse) of the states can affect the overall ranking of the proposed solutions. The findings from this study may facilitate negotiation regarding the most preferred allocation mechanism for the Caspian Sea.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ben-Arieh D (2005) Sensitivity of multi-criteria decision making to linguistic quantifiers and aggregation means. Comput Ind Eng 48:289–309. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2005.01.014
Bodily SE (1985) Modern decision making: a guide to modeling with decision support systems. McGraw-Hill, New York
Brams SJ, Kilgour DM (2001) Fallback bargaining. Gr Decis Negot 10:287–316. doi:10.1023/A:1011252808608
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2001) Oil and gas infrastructure in the Caspian Sea and Black Sea Regions 2001. http://www.zonu.com/fullsize-en/2009-09-18-7242/Oil-and-gas-infrastructure-in-the-Caspian-Sea-and-Black-Sea-Regions-2001.html. Accessed 10 Feb 2012
Chiclana F, Herrera F, Herrera-Viedma E (1998) Integrating three representation models in fuzzy multipurpose decision making based on fuzzy preference relations. Fuzzy Sets Syst 97:33–48. doi:10.1016/S0165-0114(96)00339-9
Choudhury AK, Shankar R, Tiwari MK (2006) Consensus-based intelligent group decision-making model for the selection of advanced technology. Decis Support Syst 42:1776–1799. doi:10.1016/j.dss.2005.05.001
Chuntian C, Chau KW (2002) Three-person multi-objective conflict decision in reservoir flood control. Eur J Oper Res 142:625–631.doi:10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00319-8
Haghayeghi M (2003) The coming of conflict to the Caspian Sea. Probl Post Communism 50:32–41
Herrera F, Herrera-Viedma E, Verdegay JL (1996) Direct approach processes in group decision making using linguistic OWA operators. Fuzzy Sets Syst 79:175–190. doi:10.1016/0165-0114(95)00162-X
Hipel KW (1992) Multiple objective decision making in water resources. J Am Water Resour Assoc 28:3–12. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03150.x
Liu X (2011) A review of the OWA determination methods: classification and some extensions. In: Yage RR, Kacprzyk J, Beliakov G (eds) Recent developments in the ordered weighted averaging operators: theory and practice. Springer, Berlin, pp 49–90. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-17910-5_4
Liu D, Stewart TJ (2004) Object-oriented decision support system modelling for multicriteria decision making in natural resource management. Comput Oper Res 31:985–999. doi:10.1016/S0305-0548(03)00047-9
Madani K, Gholizadeh S (2011) Game theory insights for the Caspian Sea conflict. In: Beighley IRE, Kilgore MW (eds) World environmental and water resources congress, 2011 bearing knowledge for sustainability. ASCE, California, pp 2815–2819
Madani K, Lund JR (2011) A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty. Adv Water Resour 34:607–616. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.02.009
Madani K, Sheikhmohammady M, Mokhtari S et al (2013) Social planner’s solution for the Caspian Sea conflict. Gr Decis Negot. doi:10.1007/s10726-013-9345-7
Makropoulos CK, Butler D (2006) Spatial ordered weighted averaging: incorporating spatially variable attitude towards risk in spatial multi-criteria decision-making. Environ Model Softw 21:69–84. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.10.010
Malczewski J, Rinner C (2005) Exploring multicriteria decision strategies in GIS with linguistic quantifiers: a case study of residential quality evaluation. J Geogr Syst 7:249–268. doi:10.1007/s10109-005-0159-2
Mellers BA, Chang S (1994) Representations of risk judgments. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 57:167–184. doi:10.1006/obhd.1994.1010
Mianabadi H, Afshar A (2008) A new method to evaluate weights of decision makers and its application in water resource management. In: 13th IWRA world water congress, Montpellier, France, pp 1–10
Mianabadi H, Afshar A (2009) Fuzzy group decision making and its application in water resource planning and management. In: Blöschl G, Giesen N van de, Muralidharan D, Al. E (eds) 8th Iahs Scientific Assembly/37th Iah Congress (improving integral surface groundwater resource management a vulnerable changing world). IAHS, Hyderabad, pp 311–318
Mianabadi H, Afshar A, Zarghami M (2011) Intelligent multi-stakeholder environmental management. Expert Syst Appl 38:862–866. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.07.054
Mimi ZA, Sawalhi BI (2003) A decision tool for allocating the waters of the Jordan river basin between all riparian parties. Water Resour Manag 17:447–461. doi:10.1023/B:WARM.0000004959.90022.ba
Ölçer Aİ, Odabaşi AY (2005) A new fuzzy multiple attributive group decision making methodology and its application to propulsion/manoeuvring system selection problem. Eur J Oper Res 166:93–114. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2004.02.010
Ramanathan R, Ganesh LS (1994) Group preference aggregation methods employed in AHP: an evaluation and an intrinsic process for deriving members’ weightages. Eur J Oper Res 79:249–265. doi:10.1016/0377-2217(94)90356-5
Roberts K (2006) Social choice theory and the informational basis approach. Working paper 27. Department of Economics, University of Oxford, UK
Rouhani OM, Madani K, Gholizadeh S (2010) Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System. World Environ. Water Resour. Congr. 2010 Challenges Chang. ASCE, Providence, Rhode Island, pp 2694–2702. doi:10.1061/41114(371)277
Sadiq R, Rodríguez MJ, Tesfamariam S (2010) Integrating indicators for performance assessment of small water utilities using ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators. Expert Syst Appl 37:4881–4891. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2009.12.027
Sheikhmohammady M, Madani K (2008) Bargaining over the Caspian Sea—the largest lake on the Earth, World environmental and water resources congress 2008. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, pp 1–9. doi:10.1061/40976(316)262
Sheikhmohammady M, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2010) Modeling the Caspian Sea negotiations. Gr Decis Negot 19:149–168. doi:10.1007/s10726-008-9121-2
Sheikhmohammady M, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2012a) Formal analysis of multilateral negotiations over the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Gr Decis Negot 21:305–329. doi:10.1007/s10726-010-9195-5
Sheikhmohammady M, Madani K, Moradi M, Bahreini A (2012b) Multi criteria decision-making methods to analyze the Caspian Sea negotiation. Int J Appl Oper Res 1:43–51
Sivakumar B (2011) Water crisis: from conflict to cooperation—an overview. Hydrol Sci J 56:531–552. doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.580747
Smolíková R, Wachowiak MP (2002) Aggregation operators for selection problems. Fuzzy Sets Syst 131:23–34. doi:10.1016/S0165-0114(01)00252-4
Tanino T (1988) Fuzzy preference relations in group decision making. In: Kacprzyk J, Roubens M (eds) Non-conventional preference relations decision making. Springer, Berlin, p 155
Theil H (1963) On the symmetry approach to the committee decision problem. Manag Sci 9:380–393
Valente R, Vettorazzi C (2008) Definition of priority areas for forest conservation through the ordered weighted averaging method. For Ecol Manage 256:1408–1417. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.07.006
Xu Z (2005) An overview of methods for determining OWA weights. Int J Intell Syst 20:843–865. doi:10.1002/int.20097
Yager RR (1988) On ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi criteria decision making. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 18:183–190. doi:10.1109/21.87068
Yager RR (1991) Connectives and quantifiers in fuzzy sets. Fuzzy Sets Syst 40:39–75
Yager RR (1993) Families of OWA operators. Fuzzy Sets Syst 59:125–148. doi:10.1016/0165-0114(93)90194-M
Yager RR (1996) Quantifier guided aggregation using OWA operators. Int J Intell Syst 11:49–73. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1098-111X(199601)11:1<49::AID-INT3>3.0.CO;2-Z
Yager RR (2002) On the cardinality index and attitudinal character of fuzzy measures. Int J Gen Syst 31:303–329. doi:10.1080/03081070290018047
Yager RR, Filev DP (1999) Induced ordered weighted averaging operators. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern B 29:141–150. doi:10.1109/3477.752789
Zadeh L (1983) A computational approach to fuzzy quantifiers in natural languages. Comput Math with Appl 9:149–184. doi:10.1016/0898-1221(83)90013-5
Zarghami M, Szidarovszky F (2008) Fuzzy quantifiers in sensitivity analysis of OWA operator. Comput Ind Eng 54:1006–1018. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2007.11.012
Zarghami M, Szidarovszky F (2009) Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 23:329–339. doi:10.1007/s00477-008-0218-6
Zarghami M, Ardakanian R, Memariani A, Szidarovszky F (2008a) Extended OWA operator for group decision making on water resources projects. J Water Resour Plan Manag 134:266–275. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2008)134:3(266)
Zarghami M, Szidarovszky F, Ardakanian R (2008b) A fuzzy-stochastic OWA model for robust multi-criteria decision making. Fuzzy Optim Decis Mak 7:1–15. doi:10.1007/s10700-007-9021-y
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mianabadi, H., Sheikhmohammady, M., Mostert, E. et al. Application of the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method to the Caspian Sea conflict. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 1359–1372 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0861-z
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0861-z