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Real-time correction of water stage forecast using combination of forecasted errors by time series models and Kalman filter method

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Abstract

This study modifies a real-time correction method for water stage forecasts (named the RTEC_TS&KF model) using the time series method developed by Wu et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26:519-531, 2012) (named the RTEC_TS model), by incorporating the Kalman filter (KF) model. The RTEC_TS&KF model adjusts the corrected water stage forecasts resulting from the RTEC_TS model by taking into account the uncertainties in the model structure/inputs as well as the measurement bias. In detail, the water stage forecasts are corrected by separately adding the forecasted errors by the times series model and KF method into the stage forecasts. As compared to the results from the RTEC_TS model using the forecasted and observed water stages for Typhoons Morakot (2009), Saola (2012) and Soulik (2013), the RTEC_TS&KF model not only effectively lessens the uncertainties in regard to the water stage forecasts, but also consistently presents high correction performance of water level forecasts for various rainstorm events. This reveals that the RTEC_TS&KF model is superior to the RTEC_TS model in the correction of water stage forecasts. In the future, the RTEC_TS&KF model will be applied in the real-time corrections of other hydrological variates, such as the outflow of a reservoir, in the case of observation being provided on time.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei, 10608, Taiwan

    Jhih-Cyuan Shen & Che-Hao Chang

  2. National Center for High-Performance Computing, Hsinchu, 30076, Taiwan

    Shiang-Jen Wu, Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien

Authors
  1. Jhih-Cyuan Shen
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  2. Che-Hao Chang
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  3. Shiang-Jen Wu
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  4. Chih-Tsung Hsu
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  5. Ho-Cheng Lien
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Correspondence to Shiang-Jen Wu.

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Shen, JC., Chang, CH., Wu, SJ. et al. Real-time correction of water stage forecast using combination of forecasted errors by time series models and Kalman filter method. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 29, 1903–1920 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1074-9

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