Probabilistic Analysis of Rock Slopes Involving Correlated Non-normal Variables Using Point Estimate Methods

The current study investigates the applicability, superiorities and impediments of point estimate methods (PEMs) used in the probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes. A rock slope including correlated non-normally distributed variables is considered, and probabilistic analyses are conducted incorporating four different PEMs with a numerical method. It is illustrated that the correlation and asymmetry in random variables can be treated in different ways using different PEMs. Certain methods, such as Rosenblueth’s or Zhou and Nowak’s PEMs, are originally applicable to correlated skewed random parameters whereas deficiencies in Harr’s and Hong’s PEMs arise when random variables are non-normally distributed and correlated, respectively. This study demonstrates how manipulating these two methods allows them to be applicable to correlated non-normal variables.