Abstract
Variations of precipitation amounts, atmosphere circulation, and relative humidity at three high mountainous stations in Bulgaria are investigated. The research period is 1947–2008. Three stations are peaks Musala (2,927 m), Cherni Vrah (2,293 m), and Botev (2,378 m). Homogeneity checks were performed. Some adjustments of monthly precipitation amounts were done due to the change of rain gauge placements. Methods employed in this research are statistical—trend analysis, multiple linear regression, autocorrelation, spectral analysis, correlation, etc. The main conclusion is that annual precipitation amounts in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria decrease over the last six decades. These trends are statistically significant in lower and northern stations of Cherni Vrah and Botev. Observed tendencies are due mainly to precipitation in months of the cold part of the year—from October till March and also June. Atmospheric circulation, on an annual basis, shows a decrease in the number of cyclones and an increase of the number of anticyclones. Atmospheric pressure has no significant change during the research period. Relative humidity, on an annual basis, increases at the two western stations (Musala and Cherni Vrah) and decreases at Botev peak. Multiple regression statistical modeling shows good results at stations Cherni Vrah and Botev. Station Musala is more difficult to model with the five predictors used because of the winter months. Correlation coefficients reveal a good connection between precipitation amounts at all three stations. Only Botev station has a significant cycle in precipitation distribution, which is about 3.7 months.
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Nojarov, P. Variations in precipitation amounts, atmosphere circulation, and relative humidity in high mountainous parts of Bulgaria for the period 1947–2008. Theor Appl Climatol 107, 175–187 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0473-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0473-1