Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in warming environment

Abstract

Though over a century long period (1871–2010) the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) series is stable, it does depict the decreasing tendency during the last three decades of the 20th century. Around mid-1970s, there was a major climate shift over the globe. The average all-India surface air temperature also shows consistent rise after 1975. This unequivocal warming may have some impact on the weakening of ISMR. The reduction in seasonal rainfall is mainly contributed by the deficit rainfall over core monsoon zone which happens to be the major contributor to seasonal rainfall amount. During the period 1976–2004, the deficit (excess) monsoons have become more (less) frequent. The monsoon circulation is observed to be weakened. The mid-tropospheric gradient responsible for the maintenance of monsoon circulation has been observed to be weakened significantly as compared to 1901–1975. The warming over western equatorial Indian Ocean as well as equatorial Pacific is more pronounced after mid-70s and the co-occurrence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode events and El Nino events might have reinforced the large deficit anomalies of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 1976–2004. All these factors may contribute to the weakening of ISMR.