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Spatial asymmetry of temperature trends over India and possible role of aerosols

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Abstract

Dissimilarities in temperature trends in space and time over the Indian region have been examined to look for signatures of aerosols’ influence. Separate temperature time series for North and South India were constructed for dry (November–May) and wet (June–October) seasons. Temperature trend for the entire period 1901–2007 and different subperiods of 1901–1950, 1951–1990, 1971–2007, and 1991–2007 have been examined to isolate the aerosol and other greenhouse gas influences on temperatures. Maximum (daytime) temperatures during dry season corresponding to North and South India show significant warming trend of 0.8 and 1.0 °C per hundred years during the period 1901–2007, while minimum temperature shows nebulous trend of 0.2 and 0.3 °C per hundred years over North and South India, respectively. During the wet season, maximum temperature shows nearly half of dry season maximum temperature warming trend. However, asymmetry is observed in dry season maximum temperature trend during post-industrial period 1951–1990 wherein the North/South India shows decreasing/increasing trends, while during the recent period 1991–2007 trends are uniformly positive for both the regions. Spatial and temporal asymmetry in observed trends clearly point to the role of aerosols in lowering temperature trends over northern India. Atmospheric aerosols could cause a negative climate forcing that can modulate the regional surface temperature trends in a significant way. As this forcing acts differentially on day and night temperatures, trends in diurnal temperature range (DTR) provide a direct assessment of impacts of aerosols on temperature trends. Time series of diurnal temperature range for dry and wet seasons have been examined separately for North and South India. Over North India, the DTR for dry season has increased gradually during the period 1901–1970 and thereafter showed decreasing trend, while trends in temperature range over Southern India were almost opposite in phase with North India. The aerosol and greenhouse gases seem to play an important role in the spatial and temporal variability of temperature range over India.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Director Prof. B. N. Goswami, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune for providing the necessary facilities for this study. The authors are also grateful to National Data Center of India Meteorological Department for providing the surface and upper air temperature data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Tropical meteorology, Pune, India

    D. R. Kothawale & K. Krishna Kumar

  2. RIMES, Bangkok, Thailand

    G. Srinivasan

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  1. D. R. Kothawale
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  2. K. Krishna Kumar
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  3. G. Srinivasan
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Correspondence to D. R. Kothawale.

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Kothawale, D.R., Kumar, K.K. & Srinivasan, G. Spatial asymmetry of temperature trends over India and possible role of aerosols. Theor Appl Climatol 110, 263–280 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0628-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0628-8

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