Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Trends of precipitation extremes during 1960–2008 in Xinjiang, the Northwest China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The spatial–temporal variability of the precipitation extremes defined by eight precipitation indices based on daily precipitation dataset was analyzed using the linear regression method and the Mann–Kendall test. The results indicate that increasing trends in the precipitation amount, rainy days, and the intensity of the extreme precipitation were identified at above 70 % of the total rain stations considered in this study, with more than 30 % of them were significant, while most stations show notable decreasing trend in the annual maximum consecutive no-rain days. Significantly increasing trends of the precipitation extremes are observed mainly in the northern Xinjiang and the north of the southern Xinjiang. Most extreme precipitation indices show a potential regime shift starting from the middle of 1980s. The magnitude of the trends is compatible with their pattern of spatial stability. The generally increasing trends in precipitation extremes are found in this study.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar RK, Ravedekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophy Res 111(DO5109). doi:10.1029/2005JD006290

  • Brunetti M, Colacino M, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2001) Trends in the daily intensity of precipitation in Italy from 1951 to 1996. Int J Climatol 21:299–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Buffoni L, Mangianti F (2004) Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy. Glob Planet Chang 40:141–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caesar J, Alexander LV, Trewin B, Tse-ring K, Sorany L, Vuniyayawa V, Keosavang N, Shimana A, Htay MM, Karmacharya J, Jayasinghearachchi DA, Sakkamart J, Soares E, Hung LT, Thuong LT, Hue CT, Dung NTT, Hung PV, Cuong HD, Cuong NM, Sirabaha S (2011) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005. Int J Climatol 31:791–801. doi:10.1002/joc.2118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costa AC, Soares A (2009) Trends in extreme precipitation indices derived from a daily rainfall database for the South of Portugal. Int J Climatol 29:1956–1975. doi:10.1002/joc.1834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai XG, Ren YY, Cheng HW (2007) Multi-scale feature of climate and climate shift in Xinjiang over the past 50 years. Acta Meteorelogica Sinica 65(6):1003–1010 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • dos Santos CAC, Neale CMU, Rao TVR, da Silva BB (2011) Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation over Utah, USA. Int J Climatol 31:1813–1822. doi:10.1002/joc.2205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dravitzki S, McGregor J (2011) Extreme precipitation of the Waikato region, New Zealand. Int J Climatol 31:1803–1812. doi:10.1002/joc.2189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Evans JL, Groisman PY, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81(3):417–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Alexander LA, Mokssit A, Detemmerman V (2003) CCI/CLIVAR Workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 8:1403–1407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan XH, Wang MB (2011) Change trends of air temperature and precipitation over Shanxi Province, China. Theor Appl Climatol 103:519–531. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0319-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng S, Hu Q, Qian WH (2004) Quality control of daily meteorological data in China, 1951–2000: a new dataset. Int J Climatol 24:853–870. doi:10.1002/joc.1047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein-Tank A, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Clim Res 19:193–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GCOS/CLIVAR/WMO (1997) Indices and indicators for changes in climate extremes, Asheville, June 3–6

  • Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (2001) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu RJ, Jiang FQ, Wang YJ (2002) Signal and impact of climatic shift from warm–dry to warm–wet in Xinjiang. Arid Land Geogr 25(3):194–200

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu YR, Maskey S, Uhlenbrook S (2011) Trends in temperature and rainfall extremes in the Yellow River source region, China. Clim Chang 110:403–429. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0056-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hundecha Y, Bardossy A (2005) Trends in daily precipitation and temperature extremes across Western Germany in the second half of the 20th century. Int J Climatol 25:1189–1202. doi:10.1002/joc.1182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) The fourth assessment report: climate change 2007. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang FQ, Hu RJ, Yang YH (2004) Abrupt change in the time sequences of flood disasters in Xinjiang and its possible climatic reasons. J Glaciol Geocryol 26:674–681 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang FQ, Zhu C, Hu RJ, Mu GJ (2005) Magnification of flood disasters and its relation to regional precipitation since the 1980s in Xinjiang, North-western China. Nat Hazard 36:307–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang DJ, Wang K, Li Z, Wang QX (2011) Variability of extreme summer precipitation over Circum-Bohai-Sea region during 1961–2008. Theor Appl Climatol 104:501–509. doi:10.107/s00704-0369-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR, Easterling DR (1999) Climate extremes: selected review and future research directions. Clim Chang 42:309–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein Tank AMG, Konnen GP (2003) Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99. J Clim 16:3665–3680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kruger AC (2006) Observed trends daily precipitation in South Africa: 1910–2004. Int J Climatol 26:2265–2275. doi:10.1002/joc.1368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel K, Andsager K, Easterling DR (1999) Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada. Journal of Climate 12(8):2512–2527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Yan ZW (2009) Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960–2008. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 2(4):1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Lopez-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Angulo-Martınez M, Beguerıa S, Kenawy A (2010) Trends in daily precipitation on the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 1955–2006. Int J Climatol 30:1026–1041. doi:10.1002/joc.1945

    Google Scholar 

  • Łupikasza E (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2006. Int J Climatol 30:991–1007. doi:10.1002/joc.1950

    Google Scholar 

  • Łupikasza EB, Hansel S, Matschullat J (2011) Regional and seasonal variability of extreme precipitation trends in southern Poland and central-eastern Germany 1951–2006. Int J Climatol 31:2249–2271. doi:10.1002/joc.2229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ, Nicholls N, Chambers LE, Collins DA, Daw G, Finet A, Gunawan D, Inape K, Isobe H, Kestin TS, Lafale P, Leyu CH, Lwin T, Maitrepierre L, Ouprasitwong N, Page CM, Pahalad J, Plummer N, Salinger MJ, Suppiah R, Tran VL, Trewin B, Tibig I, Yee D (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min S, Qian YF (2008) Regionality and persistence of extreme precipitation events in China. Adv Water Sci 19(6):763–771 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls N, Murray W (1999) Workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes: Asheville, NC, USA, 3–6 June 1997 Breakout Group B: Precipitation. Clim Chang 42:23–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ning L, Qian YF (2008) Analyses on trends of annual and seasonal four kinds of daily precipitation in China. Plateau M Eteorology 27(5):1010–1020 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Partal T, Ercan K (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Processes 20:2011–2026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Taylor MA, Demeritte R, Duncobe DL, Burton S, Thompson F, Porter A, Mercedes M, Villegas E, Fils RS, Klein Tank A, Martis A, Warner R, Joyette A, Mills W, Alexander L, Gleason B (2002) Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. J Geophys Res 107: ACL 16:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Plummer N, Salinger MJ, Nicholls N, Suppiah R, Hennessy KJ, Leighton RM, Trewin B, Page CM, Lough JM (1999) Changes in climate extremes over the Australian Region and New Zealand during the Twentieth century. Clim Chang 42:183–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int J Climatol 29:329–343. doi:10.1002/joc.1739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren ZX, Yang DY (2007) Trends in extremely climate in arid land of northwest China in recent 40 years. Resour Environ Arid Land 21(4):10–13 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Serrano VL, Mateos VL, García JA (1999) Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1921–1995. Physics Chemistry Earth (B) 24(2):85–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2011) Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 104:489–499. doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0363-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi YF, Shen YP, Zhang GW (2003) Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China. Quaternary Sciences 23(2):152–164 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sneyers R (1990) On the statistical analysis of series of observations, vol 415. WMO, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, p 192

    Google Scholar 

  • Su BD, Jiang T, Jin WB (2006) Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 83:139–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Su HC, Shen YP, Han P (2007) Precipitation and its impact on water resources and ecological environment in Xinjiang Region. J Glaciol Geocryology 29(3):343–350 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun AJ, Liu XN, Gao B (1998) Change trends of extreme climate events in China. ACTA Meteor Sinica 12(2):129–141 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Suppiah R, Hennessy KJ (1998) Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events and number of dry days in Australia, 1910–1990. Int J Climatol 10:1141–1164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toros H (2012) Spatio-temporal variation of daily extreme temperatures over Turkey. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.2325

  • Unkasevic M, Tosic I (2012) A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation over Serbia: trends and indices. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0418-8

  • Wang ZH, Qian YF (2009) Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in China. Adv Water Sci 20(1):1–9 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley TM (1985) Impact of extreme events. Nature 316:106–107

    Google Scholar 

  • Xin Y, Cui CX, Zhang GX, Zhang X, Liu XW, Sheng XQ (2008) Spatial-temporal variation of precipitation for different grade and the events of extreme precipitation over bole, Xinjiang. J Desert Res 28(1):178–184, 362-369 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu CY, Singh VP (2004) Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resour Manag 18:591–612

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y, Han P, Feng GH (2003) Change trends in precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang in recent half century. Arid Land Geogr 20(2):127–130 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yan ZW, Yang C (2000) Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during 1951–1997. Chimatic Environ Res 5(3):267–272 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang LM (2003) Variations in extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica 58(4):577–583 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang JH, Jiang ZH, Wang PX, Chen YS (2008a) Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China. Climatic Environ Res 13(1):75–83 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang JH, Jiang ZH, Wang PX, Zhang XM (2008b) Analysis on inner-annual inhomogeneity characteristic of extreme precipitation events over Northwest China. J Desert Res 28(1):178–184 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P (2004) A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann–Kendall and bootstrap for trend detection. Hydrol Sci J 49(1):21–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai P, Anjian S, Fumin R, Xiaonin L, Bo G, Qiang Z (1999a) Changes of climate extremes in China. Clim Chang 42:203–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Ren FM, Zhang Q (1999b) Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes. Acta Meteor Sinica 57(2):208–216 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Zhang XB, Wan H (2005) Trends in total precipitation and Frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai PM, Wang CC, Li W (2007) A review on study of change in precipitation extremes. Adv Clim Chang Res 3(3):144–148 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang JB, Shi YG (2002) Research for climate change and short-term forecast in Xinjiang. Meteorology Press, Beijing, pp 10–45 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu X-Y, Zhang ZX, Chen YD, Liu C-L (2008) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation. J Hydrol 353:215–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu X-Y, Zhang ZX, Chen YD (2009) Changes of temperature extremes for 1960–2004 in Far-Northwest China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 23:721–735

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu X-Y, Chen XH, Zhang ZX (2011) Statistical behaviors of precipitation regimes in China and their links with atmospheric circulation, 1960–2005. Int J Climatol 31:1665–1678. doi:10.1002/joc.2193

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Y, Deng XL, Li Q, Yang Q, Huo W (2010a) Characteristics of the extreme precipitation events in the Tianshan Mountains in relation to climate change. J Glaciol Geocryology 32(5):927–934 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Y, Huang DQ, Zhu J (2010b) The preliminary analysis of extreme precipitation events in Northern Xinjiang. Desert Oasis Meteorol 4(5):1–5 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by the Chinese National Basic Research Key Project (grant no. 2010cb951001), the National Scientific and Technological Support Program (grant no. 2007BAC03A0604), the Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS (grant no. 05710401), and by Xinjiang Technology Innovative Program (grant no. 201001066 and 200931105). The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their invaluable suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Feng-qing Jiang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jiang, Fq., Hu, RJ., Wang, SP. et al. Trends of precipitation extremes during 1960–2008 in Xinjiang, the Northwest China. Theor Appl Climatol 111, 133–148 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0657-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0657-3

Keywords

Navigation