Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Basis for a streamflow forecasting system to Rincón del Bonete and Salto Grande (Uruguay)

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents the basis for the design of streamflow prediction systems for the hydroelectric dams of Rincón del Bonete (Uruguay) and Salto Grande (Uruguay–Argentina). The prediction is made, independently, for each reservoir and each month of the year with two methodologies: data-driven statistical models and hybrid downscaling that includes atmospheric predictors. We determine a set of potential predictors and then fit linear models coupled with variable selection techniques, under the hypothesis of perfectly known predictors. The predictive skill of the schemes outperforms the climatological forecast throughout the year in both reservoirs (except August in Rincón del Bonete). This remains the case even when the forecast lead does not allow for the use of preceding flows as predictors. While in Rincón del Bonete it is not possible to distinguish a period of high predictability, in Salto Grande, there is a robust signal in March–May and October–December.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig 6
Fig 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aceituno P (1988) On the functioning of the southern oscillation in the South American sector. Part I: surface climate. Mon Weather Rev 116:505–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aceituno P (1989) On the functioning of the southern oscillation in the South American sector. Part II. Upper-air circulation. J Clim 2:341–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG (1994) Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J Clim 7:1513–1564

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cazes-Boezio G, Robertson A, Mechoso R (2003) Seasonal dependence of ENSO teleconnections over South America and relationships with precipitation in Uruguay. J Clim 16:1159–1176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Farrara JD, Mechoso CR, Robertson AW (2000) Ensembles of AGCM two-tier predictions and simulations of the circulation anomalies during winter 1997–1998. Mon Weather Rev 128:3589–3604

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goddard L, Mason SJ, Zebiak SE, Ropelewski CF, Basher R, Cane MA (2001) Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int J Clim 21:1111–1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm AM, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2007) Connection between spring conditions and peak summer monsoon rainfall in South America: role of soil moisture, surface temperature and topography in eastern Brazil. J Clim 20:5929–5945

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Izenman AJ (2008) Modern multivariate statistical techniques, Springer texts in statistics. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Konor CS, Cazes-Boezio G, Mechoso CR, Arakawa A (2009) Parameterization of PBL processes in an atmospheric general circulation model: description and preliminary assessment. Mon Weather Rev 137:1061–1082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koster R et al (2011) The second phase of the global land–atmosphere coupling experiment: soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. J Hydrometeorol 12:805–822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Hoerling MP (2003) The nature and causes for the delayed atmospheric response to El Niño. J Clim 16:1391–1403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landman WA, Mason SJ, Tyson PD, Tennat WJ (2001) Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow. J Hydrol 252:221–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lima CH, Lall U (2010) Climate informed monthly streamflow forecasts for the Brazilian hydropower network using a periodic ridge regression model. J Hydrol 380:438–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lumley T (2009) Package leaps. http://cran.r-project.org/

  • Mechoso CR, Pérez-Irribarren G (1992) Streamflow in southeastern South America and the southern oscillation. J Clim 5:1535–1539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller AJ, Cayan DR, Barnett TP, Graham EN, Oberhuber JM (1994) The 1976–1977 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean. J Oceanogr 7:21–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pisciottano G, Díaz A, Cazes G, Mechoso R (1994) El Niño—southern oscillation impact on rainfall in Uruguay. J Clim 7:1286–1302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Climatol 6:293–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/southern oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:1606–1626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1989) Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation. J Clim 2:268–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soukup TL, Aziz OA, Tootle GA, Piechota TC, Wulff SS (2009) Long lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability. J Hydrol 368:131–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone M (1974) Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions. J R Stat Soc Ser B (Methodol) 36:111–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Su H, Neelin JD, Meyerson JE (2005) Mechanisms for lagged atmospheric response to ENSO forcing. J Clim 18:4195–4215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (1990) Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 71:988–993

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang W (2006) Stochasticity, nonlinearity and forecasting of streamflow processes. IOS, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Brown C, Lall U, Sharma A (2007) Modeling multivariable hydrological series: principal component analysis or independent component analysis? Water Resources Res 43:W06429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Sharma A (2009) Probabilistic estimation of multivariate streamflow using independent component analysis and climate information. J Hydrometeorol 10:1479–1492

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westra S, Sharma A (2010) An upper limit to seasonal rainfall predictability? J Clim 7:3332–3351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J Geophys Res 107:4429. doi:10.1029/2001JD000659

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Part of this work was performed while the first author was supported by a grant from Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación (ANII). We thank Marco Scavino for insightful discussions and Gabriel Cazes for helping with the simulations.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Unidad de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República, Iguá 4225, Montevideo, 11400, Uruguay

    Stefanie Talento

  2. Instituto de Matemática y Estadística Rafael Laguardia, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de la República, Julio Herrera y Reissig 565, Montevideo, 11300, Uruguay

    Stefanie Talento

  3. Instituto de Mecánica de los Fluidos e Ingeniería Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de la República, Julio Herrera y Reissig 565, Montevideo, 11300, Uruguay

    Rafael Terra

Authors
  1. Stefanie Talento
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Rafael Terra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stefanie Talento.

Appendix

Appendix

In Figs. 17 and 18, we show, for each month of the year, the variables selected for the model lmAUCLAOQ-optimal for Rincón del Bonete and Salto Grande, respectively. Variables not available for selection (those not included in the AUCLA group) are indicated in white, variables available but not selected are indicated in grey and variables selected are indicated in black.

Fig. 17
figure 17

Variables selected for the model lmAUCLAOQ-optimal for Rincón del Bonete. Variables not available for selection (those not included in the AUCLA group) are indicated in white, variables available but not selected are indicated in grey and variables selected are indicated in black. The abscissa indicates the month of flow to be predicted

Full size image
Fig. 18
figure 18

Idem Fig. 10 for Salto Grande

Full size image

For Rincón del Bonete (Fig. 17), the most selected variable is Q1; N3.4 is persistently selected from November to February, and the only season in which atmospheric variables were selected is from February to July.

For Salto Grande (Fig. 18), in every month of the year, at least one of the variables of precedent flow is selected. N3.4 is selected in a continuous manner from October to January and, similar to what happened for Rincón del Bonete, the selection of atmospheric variables is restricted to the period March–July.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Talento, S., Terra, R. Basis for a streamflow forecasting system to Rincón del Bonete and Salto Grande (Uruguay). Theor Appl Climatol 114, 73–93 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0822-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0822-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation