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Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model

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Abstract

Regression-based statistical downscaling is a method broadly used to resolve the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models. Nevertheless, the assessment of uncertainties linked with climatic variables is essential to climate impact studies. This study presents a procedure to characterize the uncertainty in regression-based statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature over a highly vulnerable area (semiarid catchment) in the west of Iran, based on two downscaling models: a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Biases in mean, variance, and wet/dry spells are estimated for downscaled data using vigorous statistical tests for 30 years of observed and downscaled daily precipitation and temperature data taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis predictors for the years of 1961 to 1990. In the case of daily temperature, uncertainty is estimated by comparing monthly mean and variance of downscaled and observed daily data at a 95 % confidence level. In daily precipitation, downscaling uncertainties were evaluated from comparing monthly mean dry and wet spell lengths and their confidence intervals, cumulative frequency distributions of monthly mean of daily precipitation, and the distributions of monthly wet and dry days for observed and modeled daily precipitation. Results showed that uncertainty in downscaled precipitation is high, but simulation of daily temperature can reproduce extreme events accurately. Finally, this study shows that the SDSM is the most proficient model at reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data at a 95 % confidence level, while the ANN model is the least capable in this respect. This study attempts to test uncertainties of regression-based statistical downscaling techniques in a semiarid area and therefore contributes to an improvement of the quality of predictions of climate change impact assessment in regions of this type.

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Acknowledgments

We express our gratitude to Climate data office at Iranian Meteorological organization as well as Water Section in Iranian Water Resource Research organization (TAMAB), for contributing historical insight into the original climatic and stream flow data records. Our deepest appreciation goes to Professor Gregory J. Carbone from University of South Carolina for his assistance on appropriate performance and index associated with uncertainty analysis. Our deepest gratitude also goes to Professor Rob Wilby from Loughborough University, UK, for his assistance and advice throughout the SDSM projection. By the same token, we would like to express our gratitude to SDSM and ANN software providers and the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network for providing us, free of charge, the HadCM3 and NCEP Reanalysis data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208, USA

    S. Samadi

  2. Hydro-environmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK

    Catherine A. M. E. Wilson

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

    Hamid Moradkhani

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  1. S. Samadi
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  2. Catherine A. M. E. Wilson
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  3. Hamid Moradkhani
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Correspondence to S. Samadi.

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Samadi, S., Wilson, C.A.M.E. & Moradkhani, H. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling models using Hadley Centre Coupled Model. Theor Appl Climatol 114, 673–690 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0844-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0844-x

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